Trader consensus prices Democrats at an 87.5% implied probability to win Florida's 10th Congressional District House seat, driven by its Solid Democratic rating (Cook PVI D+13), incumbent Rep. Maxwell Frost's dominant 62.4% reelection in 2024, and 81.8% primary margin, underscoring strong incumbency advantage in this reliably blue battleground area of Central Florida including Orlando suburbs. No high-profile Republican challengers have emerged beyond prior losers like Willie Montague, with GOP primary contenders Stuart Farber and Vibert White lacking fundraising momentum. Recent buzz centers on Gov. Ron DeSantis' April special session for mid-decade redistricting potentially merging FL-10 with adjacent Democratic FL-9, but legal challenges and Voting Rights Act constraints limit GOP flip odds ahead of the August 18 primary and November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
88%
共和党
11%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$0 Vol.
88%
共和党
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democrats at an 87.5% implied probability to win Florida's 10th Congressional District House seat, driven by its Solid Democratic rating (Cook PVI D+13), incumbent Rep. Maxwell Frost's dominant 62.4% reelection in 2024, and 81.8% primary margin, underscoring strong incumbency advantage in this reliably blue battleground area of Central Florida including Orlando suburbs. No high-profile Republican challengers have emerged beyond prior losers like Willie Montague, with GOP primary contenders Stuart Farber and Vibert White lacking fundraising momentum. Recent buzz centers on Gov. Ron DeSantis' April special session for mid-decade redistricting potentially merging FL-10 with adjacent Democratic FL-9, but legal challenges and Voting Rights Act constraints limit GOP flip odds ahead of the August 18 primary and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democrats at an 87.5% implied probability to win Florida's 10th Congressional District House seat, driven by its Solid Democratic rating (Cook PVI D+13), incumbent Rep. Maxwell Frost's dominant 62.4% reelection in 2024, and 81.8% primary margin, underscoring strong incumbency advantage in this reliably blue battleground area of Central Florida including Orlando suburbs. No high-profile Republican challengers have emerged beyond prior losers like Willie Montague, with GOP primary contenders Stuart Farber and Vibert White lacking fundraising momentum. Recent buzz centers on Gov. Ron DeSantis' April special session for mid-decade redistricting potentially merging FL-10 with adjacent Democratic FL-9, but legal challenges and Voting Rights Act constraints limit GOP flip odds ahead of the August 18 primary and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Democrats at an 87.5% implied probability to win Florida's 10th Congressional District House seat, driven by its Solid Democratic rating (Cook PVI D+13), incumbent Rep. Maxwell Frost's dominant 62.4% reelection in 2024, and 81.8% primary margin, underscoring strong incumbency advantage in this reliably blue battleground area of Central Florida including Orlando suburbs. No high-profile Republican challengers have emerged beyond prior losers like Willie Montague, with GOP primary contenders Stuart Farber and Vibert White lacking fundraising momentum. Recent buzz centers on Gov. Ron DeSantis' April special session for mid-decade redistricting potentially merging FL-10 with adjacent Democratic FL-9, but legal challenges and Voting Rights Act constraints limit GOP flip odds ahead of the August 18 primary and November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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