Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 17–18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%–3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one 25 basis point cut later this year amid 2.4% year-over-year February CPI inflation—above the 2% target but cooling overall—and unemployment rising to 4.4%. Softening labor market signals and upgraded 2026 GDP growth forecasts to 2.4% reinforce expectations of accommodative policy rather than tightening, despite fleeting geopolitical oil shock concerns. Key catalysts ahead include the March CPI release on April 10 and the late-April FOMC meeting, where hotter data could test this positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$761,395 Vol.
$761,395 Vol.
2026/12/09
はい
$761,395 Vol.
$761,395 Vol.
2026/12/09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 17–18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%–3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one 25 basis point cut later this year amid 2.4% year-over-year February CPI inflation—above the 2% target but cooling overall—and unemployment rising to 4.4%. Softening labor market signals and upgraded 2026 GDP growth forecasts to 2.4% reinforce expectations of accommodative policy rather than tightening, despite fleeting geopolitical oil shock concerns. Key catalysts ahead include the March CPI release on April 10 and the late-April FOMC meeting, where hotter data could test this positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$761,395終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 17–18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%–3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one 25 basis point cut later this year amid 2.4% year-over-year February CPI inflation—above the 2% target but cooling overall—and unemployment rising to 4.4%. Softening labor market signals and upgraded 2026 GDP growth forecasts to 2.4% reinforce expectations of accommodative policy rather than tightening, despite fleeting geopolitical oil shock concerns. Key catalysts ahead include the March CPI release on April 10 and the late-April FOMC meeting, where hotter data could test this positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$761,395終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 17–18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%–3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one 25 basis point cut later this year amid 2.4% year-over-year February CPI inflation—above the 2% target but cooling overall—and unemployment rising to 4.4%. Softening labor market signals and upgraded 2026 GDP growth forecasts to 2.4% reinforce expectations of accommodative policy rather than tightening, despite fleeting geopolitical oil shock concerns. Key catalysts ahead include the March CPI release on April 10 and the late-April FOMC meeting, where hotter data could test this positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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