Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026 CPI data and resilient economic growth despite February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid weather disruptions. The March 18 FOMC decision held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with dot plot medians signaling just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 94% for an April pause. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict potentially stoking inflation, while upcoming March CPI on April 10 could influence near-term positioning. Cut scenarios trail below 12% amid trader caution on labor softening without recession signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Cut–Pause–Pause 5.8%
新規
新規
2026/07/29
Cut–Pause–Pause
6%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Cut–Pause–Pause 5.8%
新規
新規
2026/07/29
Cut–Pause–Pause
$329 Vol.
6%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$163 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$189 Vol.
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$151 Vol.
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$539 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$183 Vol.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$170 Vol.
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$195 Vol.
2%
Other
$196 Vol.
13%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026 CPI data and resilient economic growth despite February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid weather disruptions. The March 18 FOMC decision held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with dot plot medians signaling just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 94% for an April pause. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict potentially stoking inflation, while upcoming March CPI on April 10 could influence near-term positioning. Cut scenarios trail below 12% amid trader caution on labor softening without recession signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
音量
$2,115終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026 CPI data and resilient economic growth despite February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid weather disruptions. The March 18 FOMC decision held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with dot plot medians signaling just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 94% for an April pause. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict potentially stoking inflation, while upcoming March CPI on April 10 could influence near-term positioning. Cut scenarios trail below 12% amid trader caution on labor softening without recession signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$2,115終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026 CPI data and resilient economic growth despite February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 amid weather disruptions. The March 18 FOMC decision held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with dot plot medians signaling just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 94% for an April pause. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict potentially stoking inflation, while upcoming March CPI on April 10 could influence near-term positioning. Cut scenarios trail below 12% amid trader caution on labor softening without recession signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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