Trader consensus shows near-certainty at 99% implied probability against repeal of the cap on gambling loss deductions—under IRC Section 165(d)—by March 31, driven by complete inaction in Congress on any related bills amid a packed legislative calendar focused on appropriations, debt ceiling talks, and government funding deadlines. No proposals have advanced through committees or garnered sponsorship in the past 30 days, with tax policy debates prioritizing broader reforms over niche gambling provisions. The lame-duck session's end and procedural barriers like filibuster risks, floor votes, and presidential signature further dim prospects. Only an unprecedented fast-tracked bill via unanimous consent or reconciliation could alter odds, but no such momentum or endorsements have surfaced.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$123,912 Vol.
$123,912 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$123,912 Vol.
$123,912 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus shows near-certainty at 99% implied probability against repeal of the cap on gambling loss deductions—under IRC Section 165(d)—by March 31, driven by complete inaction in Congress on any related bills amid a packed legislative calendar focused on appropriations, debt ceiling talks, and government funding deadlines. No proposals have advanced through committees or garnered sponsorship in the past 30 days, with tax policy debates prioritizing broader reforms over niche gambling provisions. The lame-duck session's end and procedural barriers like filibuster risks, floor votes, and presidential signature further dim prospects. Only an unprecedented fast-tracked bill via unanimous consent or reconciliation could alter odds, but no such momentum or endorsements have surfaced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
音量
$123,912終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus shows near-certainty at 99% implied probability against repeal of the cap on gambling loss deductions—under IRC Section 165(d)—by March 31, driven by complete inaction in Congress on any related bills amid a packed legislative calendar focused on appropriations, debt ceiling talks, and government funding deadlines. No proposals have advanced through committees or garnered sponsorship in the past 30 days, with tax policy debates prioritizing broader reforms over niche gambling provisions. The lame-duck session's end and procedural barriers like filibuster risks, floor votes, and presidential signature further dim prospects. Only an unprecedented fast-tracked bill via unanimous consent or reconciliation could alter odds, but no such momentum or endorsements have surfaced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$123,912終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus shows near-certainty at 99% implied probability against repeal of the cap on gambling loss deductions—under IRC Section 165(d)—by March 31, driven by complete inaction in Congress on any related bills amid a packed legislative calendar focused on appropriations, debt ceiling talks, and government funding deadlines. No proposals have advanced through committees or garnered sponsorship in the past 30 days, with tax policy debates prioritizing broader reforms over niche gambling provisions. The lame-duck session's end and procedural barriers like filibuster risks, floor votes, and presidential signature further dim prospects. Only an unprecedented fast-tracked bill via unanimous consent or reconciliation could alter odds, but no such momentum or endorsements have surfaced.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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