Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability against a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, driven by sustained disinflation and softening economic conditions that have lowered tightening expectations. The BoC's March 12 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 2.75%—its sixth consecutive reduction—reflected headline CPI easing to 2.4% in February and core measures trending below target, alongside unemployment at 6.7% and sluggish Q4 GDP growth of 0.6% annualized. Governor Macklem's remarks emphasized a gradual path to neutral rates around 2.5%, with markets pricing further 25bps cuts at upcoming April 16 and June meetings via overnight index swaps. Absent an inflation rebound or demand surge, traders see limited catalysts for reversal, aligning odds with forward guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability against a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, driven by sustained disinflation and softening economic conditions that have lowered tightening expectations. The BoC's March 12 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 2.75%—its sixth consecutive reduction—reflected headline CPI easing to 2.4% in February and core measures trending below target, alongside unemployment at 6.7% and sluggish Q4 GDP growth of 0.6% annualized. Governor Macklem's remarks emphasized a gradual path to neutral rates around 2.5%, with markets pricing further 25bps cuts at upcoming April 16 and June meetings via overnight index swaps. Absent an inflation rebound or demand surge, traders see limited catalysts for reversal, aligning odds with forward guidance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability against a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, driven by sustained disinflation and softening economic conditions that have lowered tightening expectations. The BoC's March 12 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 2.75%—its sixth consecutive reduction—reflected headline CPI easing to 2.4% in February and core measures trending below target, alongside unemployment at 6.7% and sluggish Q4 GDP growth of 0.6% annualized. Governor Macklem's remarks emphasized a gradual path to neutral rates around 2.5%, with markets pricing further 25bps cuts at upcoming April 16 and June meetings via overnight index swaps. Absent an inflation rebound or demand surge, traders see limited catalysts for reversal, aligning odds with forward guidance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability against a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, driven by sustained disinflation and softening economic conditions that have lowered tightening expectations. The BoC's March 12 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 2.75%—its sixth consecutive reduction—reflected headline CPI easing to 2.4% in February and core measures trending below target, alongside unemployment at 6.7% and sluggish Q4 GDP growth of 0.6% annualized. Governor Macklem's remarks emphasized a gradual path to neutral rates around 2.5%, with markets pricing further 25bps cuts at upcoming April 16 and June meetings via overnight index swaps. Absent an inflation rebound or demand surge, traders see limited catalysts for reversal, aligning odds with forward guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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