Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's dominant 82% victory in the March 3 GOP primary against minor challengers has locked in the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer and political newcomer who narrowly won her primary. Arkansas's deep-red status—no Democrat has won a Senate seat here since 1992—combined with Cotton's incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and past general election margins exceeding two-thirds underpin the 93.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the November 3 ballot. While odds reflect historical base rates for safe Republican seats, a major scandal, health issue for Cotton, or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge could challenge this positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
94%
民主党
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's dominant 82% victory in the March 3 GOP primary against minor challengers has locked in the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer and political newcomer who narrowly won her primary. Arkansas's deep-red status—no Democrat has won a Senate seat here since 1992—combined with Cotton's incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and past general election margins exceeding two-thirds underpin the 93.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the November 3 ballot. While odds reflect historical base rates for safe Republican seats, a major scandal, health issue for Cotton, or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge could challenge this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's dominant 82% victory in the March 3 GOP primary against minor challengers has locked in the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer and political newcomer who narrowly won her primary. Arkansas's deep-red status—no Democrat has won a Senate seat here since 1992—combined with Cotton's incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and past general election margins exceeding two-thirds underpin the 93.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the November 3 ballot. While odds reflect historical base rates for safe Republican seats, a major scandal, health issue for Cotton, or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge could challenge this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's dominant 82% victory in the March 3 GOP primary against minor challengers has locked in the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer and political newcomer who narrowly won her primary. Arkansas's deep-red status—no Democrat has won a Senate seat here since 1992—combined with Cotton's incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and past general election margins exceeding two-thirds underpin the 93.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the November 3 ballot. While odds reflect historical base rates for safe Republican seats, a major scandal, health issue for Cotton, or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge could challenge this positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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