Trader consensus prices a 98.6% "No" probability on President-elect Donald Trump creating a tariff dividend—payments or rebates to Americans funded by new import tariff revenues—by March 31, 2025, due to the compressed timeline following his January 20 inauguration. Enacting broad tariffs via executive order demands interagency coordination, public comment periods, and Customs and Border Protection implementation, with revenue generation and distribution mechanisms requiring months, not weeks. Despite campaign promises of 10-20% universal tariffs and transition team signals from figures like Howard Lutnick on trade policy, no concrete dividend blueprint or fast-track legislative path has emerged. Late-breaking executive actions or surprise fiscal announcements could theoretically shift odds, but procedural and logistical barriers sustain high confidence in "No."
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$145,538 Vol.
$145,538 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
$145,538 Vol.
$145,538 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 11, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$145,538Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 11, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$145,538Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 11, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 98.6% "No" probability on President-elect Donald Trump creating a tariff dividend—payments or rebates to Americans funded by new import tariff revenues—by March 31, 2025, due to the compressed timeline following his January 20 inauguration. Enacting broad tariffs via executive order demands interagency coordination, public comment periods, and Customs and Border Protection implementation, with revenue generation and distribution mechanisms requiring months, not weeks. Despite campaign promises of 10-20% universal tariffs and transition team signals from figures like Howard Lutnick on trade policy, no concrete dividend blueprint or fast-track legislative path has emerged. Late-breaking executive actions or surprise fiscal announcements could theoretically shift odds, but procedural and logistical barriers sustain high confidence in "No."
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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