Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia at 70.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, driven by its incumbency advantage and dominance in the 225 single-member districts alongside a leading position in proportional list polls. Recent pro-Kremlin surveys from FOM and VCIOM (March 20-22) show United Russia at 29-41% on party lists, with New People surging to 10-13%—climbing into second place for the first time and earning 21.7% market odds—while LDPR holds steady around 10-11% and KPRF at 8-10%. United Russia leadership acknowledged potential losses in up to 30 regions' single-member races, yet its administrative resources sustain the edge in the parallel voting system allocating 450 total seats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourQuel parti remportera le plus de sièges aux élections parlementaires russes ?
Quel parti remportera le plus de sièges aux élections parlementaires russes ?
Russie unie (ER) 71%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL) 21.8%
Parti libéral-démocrate de Russie (LDPR) 5.9%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF) 1.3%
$4,393,217 Vol.
$4,393,217 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Russie unie (ER)
71%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL)
22%
Parti libéral-démocrate de Russie (LDPR)
6%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF)
1%
Russie juste – Pour la vérité (SRZP)
1%
Rodina
<1%
Plateforme Civique (PC)
<1%
Russie unie (ER) 71%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL) 21.8%
Parti libéral-démocrate de Russie (LDPR) 5.9%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF) 1.3%
$4,393,217 Vol.
$4,393,217 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Russie unie (ER)
$1,217,950 Vol.
71%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL)
$276,761 Vol.
22%
Parti libéral-démocrate de Russie (LDPR)
$2,034,127 Vol.
6%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF)
$254,614 Vol.
1%
Russie juste – Pour la vérité (SRZP)
$226,540 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$195,937 Vol.
<1%
Plateforme Civique (PC)
$189,387 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia at 70.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, driven by its incumbency advantage and dominance in the 225 single-member districts alongside a leading position in proportional list polls. Recent pro-Kremlin surveys from FOM and VCIOM (March 20-22) show United Russia at 29-41% on party lists, with New People surging to 10-13%—climbing into second place for the first time and earning 21.7% market odds—while LDPR holds steady around 10-11% and KPRF at 8-10%. United Russia leadership acknowledged potential losses in up to 30 regions' single-member races, yet its administrative resources sustain the edge in the parallel voting system allocating 450 total seats.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Marché ouvert : Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$4,393,217Date de fin
Sep 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia at 70.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, driven by its incumbency advantage and dominance in the 225 single-member districts alongside a leading position in proportional list polls. Recent pro-Kremlin surveys from FOM and VCIOM (March 20-22) show United Russia at 29-41% on party lists, with New People surging to 10-13%—climbing into second place for the first time and earning 21.7% market odds—while LDPR holds steady around 10-11% and KPRF at 8-10%. United Russia leadership acknowledged potential losses in up to 30 regions' single-member races, yet its administrative resources sustain the edge in the parallel voting system allocating 450 total seats.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$4,393,217Date de fin
Sep 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia at 70.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, driven by its incumbency advantage and dominance in the 225 single-member districts alongside a leading position in proportional list polls. Recent pro-Kremlin surveys from FOM and VCIOM (March 20-22) show United Russia at 29-41% on party lists, with New People surging to 10-13%—climbing into second place for the first time and earning 21.7% market odds—while LDPR holds steady around 10-11% and KPRF at 8-10%. United Russia leadership acknowledged potential losses in up to 30 regions' single-member races, yet its administrative resources sustain the edge in the parallel voting system allocating 450 total seats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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