President José Antonio Kast's conservative administration, inaugurated March 11, 2026, has prioritized security measures like border fortifications and firm policing without invoking constitutional state of siege, keeping trader consensus at 84.5% for "No" by June 30. Recent student demonstrations and fuel price protests in Santiago on March 26 prompted water cannons and arrests but remained contained, echoing routine responses rather than the grave internal disturbances required for sitio declaration under Chile's constitution. Earlier wildfire emergencies under predecessor Gabriel Boric were resolved via lesser "estado de emergencia" tools, reinforcing bettors' view that current unrest lacks the scale of 2019's estallido social to necessitate escalation amid Kast's hardline posture.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourÉtat de siège déclaré au Chili d'ici le 30 juin ?
État de siège déclaré au Chili d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$29,928 Vol.
$29,928 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$29,928 Vol.
$29,928 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President José Antonio Kast's conservative administration, inaugurated March 11, 2026, has prioritized security measures like border fortifications and firm policing without invoking constitutional state of siege, keeping trader consensus at 84.5% for "No" by June 30. Recent student demonstrations and fuel price protests in Santiago on March 26 prompted water cannons and arrests but remained contained, echoing routine responses rather than the grave internal disturbances required for sitio declaration under Chile's constitution. Earlier wildfire emergencies under predecessor Gabriel Boric were resolved via lesser "estado de emergencia" tools, reinforcing bettors' view that current unrest lacks the scale of 2019's estallido social to necessitate escalation amid Kast's hardline posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$29,928Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President José Antonio Kast's conservative administration, inaugurated March 11, 2026, has prioritized security measures like border fortifications and firm policing without invoking constitutional state of siege, keeping trader consensus at 84.5% for "No" by June 30. Recent student demonstrations and fuel price protests in Santiago on March 26 prompted water cannons and arrests but remained contained, echoing routine responses rather than the grave internal disturbances required for sitio declaration under Chile's constitution. Earlier wildfire emergencies under predecessor Gabriel Boric were resolved via lesser "estado de emergencia" tools, reinforcing bettors' view that current unrest lacks the scale of 2019's estallido social to necessitate escalation amid Kast's hardline posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$29,928Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President José Antonio Kast's conservative administration, inaugurated March 11, 2026, has prioritized security measures like border fortifications and firm policing without invoking constitutional state of siege, keeping trader consensus at 84.5% for "No" by June 30. Recent student demonstrations and fuel price protests in Santiago on March 26 prompted water cannons and arrests but remained contained, echoing routine responses rather than the grave internal disturbances required for sitio declaration under Chile's constitution. Earlier wildfire emergencies under predecessor Gabriel Boric were resolved via lesser "estado de emergencia" tools, reinforcing bettors' view that current unrest lacks the scale of 2019's estallido social to necessitate escalation amid Kast's hardline posture.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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