Recent Emerson and Glengariff polls from January 2026 show top Democratic primary contenders—Rep. Haley Stevens (+5 over Mike Rogers), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (+3), and Abdul El-Sayed (tie)—holding competitive or slight edges against Republican frontrunner Mike Rogers in general election matchups, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 82% implied probability despite RealClearPolling averages near even and Cook Political Report's Toss Up rating. The open seat follows Sen. Gary Peters' January 2025 retirement announcement in this swing state Trump narrowly carried in 2024, with a fragmented Democratic primary (March Upswing Research: Stevens 27%, McMorrow 25%, El-Sayed 23%) and strong ActBlue fundraising led by candidates like Slotkin ahead of the August 4 primary fueling optimism amid midterm headwinds for the GOP presidential party.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections sénatoriales du Michigan
Vainqueur des élections sénatoriales du Michigan
$22,435 Vol.
$22,435 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Démocrate
82%
Républicain
18%
$22,435 Vol.
$22,435 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Démocrate
$0 Vol.
82%
Républicain
$22,435 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent Emerson and Glengariff polls from January 2026 show top Democratic primary contenders—Rep. Haley Stevens (+5 over Mike Rogers), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (+3), and Abdul El-Sayed (tie)—holding competitive or slight edges against Republican frontrunner Mike Rogers in general election matchups, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 82% implied probability despite RealClearPolling averages near even and Cook Political Report's Toss Up rating. The open seat follows Sen. Gary Peters' January 2025 retirement announcement in this swing state Trump narrowly carried in 2024, with a fragmented Democratic primary (March Upswing Research: Stevens 27%, McMorrow 25%, El-Sayed 23%) and strong ActBlue fundraising led by candidates like Slotkin ahead of the August 4 primary fueling optimism amid midterm headwinds for the GOP presidential party.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$22,435Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent Emerson and Glengariff polls from January 2026 show top Democratic primary contenders—Rep. Haley Stevens (+5 over Mike Rogers), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (+3), and Abdul El-Sayed (tie)—holding competitive or slight edges against Republican frontrunner Mike Rogers in general election matchups, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 82% implied probability despite RealClearPolling averages near even and Cook Political Report's Toss Up rating. The open seat follows Sen. Gary Peters' January 2025 retirement announcement in this swing state Trump narrowly carried in 2024, with a fragmented Democratic primary (March Upswing Research: Stevens 27%, McMorrow 25%, El-Sayed 23%) and strong ActBlue fundraising led by candidates like Slotkin ahead of the August 4 primary fueling optimism amid midterm headwinds for the GOP presidential party.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$22,435Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Emerson and Glengariff polls from January 2026 show top Democratic primary contenders—Rep. Haley Stevens (+5 over Mike Rogers), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (+3), and Abdul El-Sayed (tie)—holding competitive or slight edges against Republican frontrunner Mike Rogers in general election matchups, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 82% implied probability despite RealClearPolling averages near even and Cook Political Report's Toss Up rating. The open seat follows Sen. Gary Peters' January 2025 retirement announcement in this swing state Trump narrowly carried in 2024, with a fragmented Democratic primary (March Upswing Research: Stevens 27%, McMorrow 25%, El-Sayed 23%) and strong ActBlue fundraising led by candidates like Slotkin ahead of the August 4 primary fueling optimism amid midterm headwinds for the GOP presidential party.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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