Trader consensus prices AfD at 85% implied probability to win the most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20 Landtagswahl under proportional representation, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfragen where the party leads at 34-37%—more than double its 2021 result—versus the incumbent SPD's 23-26%. The latest INSA poll (March 6-16, published March 17) shows AfD at 34% and SPD at 26%, with SPD gaining modestly from earlier lows but trailing by eight points amid economic discontent and migration concerns boosting AfD in eastern Germany. CDU polls at 12%, too distant for contention. While six months remain for campaign shifts, scandals, or turnout swings, steady polling trends underpin AfD's frontrunner status, with SPD as distant challenger.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection parlementaire Mecklembourg-Poméranie-Occidentale
Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire Mecklembourg-Poméranie-Occidentale
AfD 85%
SPD 11%
CDU 2.0%
Linke <1%
$132,550 Vol.
$132,550 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
85%
SPD
11%
CDU
2%
Linke
1%
Les Verts
1%
FDP
1%
BSW
<1%
FW
<1%
AfD 85%
SPD 11%
CDU 2.0%
Linke <1%
$132,550 Vol.
$132,550 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$4,588 Vol.
85%
SPD
$32,467 Vol.
11%
CDU
$24,966 Vol.
2%
Linke
$3,234 Vol.
1%
Les Verts
$36,390 Vol.
1%
FDP
$30,905 Vol.
1%
BSW
$0 Vol.
<1%
FW
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Trader consensus prices AfD at 85% implied probability to win the most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20 Landtagswahl under proportional representation, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfragen where the party leads at 34-37%—more than double its 2021 result—versus the incumbent SPD's 23-26%. The latest INSA poll (March 6-16, published March 17) shows AfD at 34% and SPD at 26%, with SPD gaining modestly from earlier lows but trailing by eight points amid economic discontent and migration concerns boosting AfD in eastern Germany. CDU polls at 12%, too distant for contention. While six months remain for campaign shifts, scandals, or turnout swings, steady polling trends underpin AfD's frontrunner status, with SPD as distant challenger.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$132,550Date de fin
Sep 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Trader consensus prices AfD at 85% implied probability to win the most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20 Landtagswahl under proportional representation, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfragen where the party leads at 34-37%—more than double its 2021 result—versus the incumbent SPD's 23-26%. The latest INSA poll (March 6-16, published March 17) shows AfD at 34% and SPD at 26%, with SPD gaining modestly from earlier lows but trailing by eight points amid economic discontent and migration concerns boosting AfD in eastern Germany. CDU polls at 12%, too distant for contention. While six months remain for campaign shifts, scandals, or turnout swings, steady polling trends underpin AfD's frontrunner status, with SPD as distant challenger.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$132,550Date de fin
Sep 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices AfD at 85% implied probability to win the most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20 Landtagswahl under proportional representation, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfragen where the party leads at 34-37%—more than double its 2021 result—versus the incumbent SPD's 23-26%. The latest INSA poll (March 6-16, published March 17) shows AfD at 34% and SPD at 26%, with SPD gaining modestly from earlier lows but trailing by eight points amid economic discontent and migration concerns boosting AfD in eastern Germany. CDU polls at 12%, too distant for contention. While six months remain for campaign shifts, scandals, or turnout swings, steady polling trends underpin AfD's frontrunner status, with SPD as distant challenger.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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