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Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-09

Market icon
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-09

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Parti démocrate

$8,382 Vol.

94%

Parti républicain

$0 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois' 9th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27, driving trader consensus to heavily favor the Democratic Party at 93.5% for the House election winner. Incumbent Rep. Jan Schakowsky, seeking reelection after winning 72%-28% in 2022 and similar landslides previously, faces Republican challenger Joey Jarmus in a race with no significant polling releases, endorsements, or campaign catalysts in the past 30 days. The market reflects incumbency advantages and historical base rates for safe seats exceeding 95% reelection odds ahead of the November 5 ballot. Late-breaking scandals, exceptionally low Democratic turnout in this Chicago North Shore district, or unexpected voter shifts could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios face steep barriers.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,382
Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois' 9th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27, driving trader consensus to heavily favor the Democratic Party at 93.5% for the House election winner. Incumbent Rep. Jan Schakowsky, seeking reelection after winning 72%-28% in 2022 and similar landslides previously, faces Republican challenger Joey Jarmus in a race with no significant polling releases, endorsements, or campaign catalysts in the past 30 days. The market reflects incumbency advantages and historical base rates for safe seats exceeding 95% reelection odds ahead of the November 5 ballot. Late-breaking scandals, exceptionally low Democratic turnout in this Chicago North Shore district, or unexpected voter shifts could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios face steep barriers.

Illinois' 9th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27, driving trader consensus to heavily favor the Democratic Party at 93.5% for the House election winner. Incumbent Rep. Jan Schakowsky, seeking reelection after winning 72%-28% in 2022 and similar landslides previously, faces Republican challenger Joey Jarmus in a race with no significant polling releases, endorsements, or campaign catalysts in the past 30 days. The market reflects incumbency advantages and historical base rates for safe seats exceeding 95% reelection odds ahead of the November 5 ballot. Late-breaking scandals, exceptionally low Democratic turnout in this Chicago North Shore district, or unexpected voter shifts could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios face steep barriers.

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-09 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Parti démocrate » à 94%, suivi de « Parti républicain » à 6%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 94¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 94% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-09 » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jan 28, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-09 », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-09 » est « Parti démocrate » à 94%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 94% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti républicain » à 6%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-09 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.