Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 18°C as Wellington's highest temperature on March 19, driven by MetService New Zealand's latest forecast pinpointing a daytime maximum of 18°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge and persistent southerly winds suppressing warmth. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS converge on this outcome, aligning with recent soundings showing cool air masses dominating the region, while March climatology averages 19-20°C but current synoptic patterns favor below-normal temps. This positioning reflects low model spread and verified recent observations of similar conditions. Realistic challenges include an abrupt northerly wind shift injecting warmer maritime air or prolonged clear skies enabling greater solar insolation, potentially pushing highs to 19-20°C if shortwave radiation exceeds 400 W/m².
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Wellington le 19 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Wellington le 19 mars ?
18°C 100.0%
12°C ou moins <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$2,864 Vol.
$2,864 Vol.
12°C ou moins
Non
13°C
Non
14°C
Non
15°C
Non
16°C
Non
17°C
Non
18°C
Oui
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C ou plus
Non
18°C 100.0%
12°C ou moins <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$2,864 Vol.
$2,864 Vol.
12°C ou moins
Non
13°C
Non
14°C
Non
15°C
Non
16°C
Non
17°C
Non
18°C
Oui
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C ou plus
Non
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 15, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 18°C as Wellington's highest temperature on March 19, driven by MetService New Zealand's latest forecast pinpointing a daytime maximum of 18°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge and persistent southerly winds suppressing warmth. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS converge on this outcome, aligning with recent soundings showing cool air masses dominating the region, while March climatology averages 19-20°C but current synoptic patterns favor below-normal temps. This positioning reflects low model spread and verified recent observations of similar conditions. Realistic challenges include an abrupt northerly wind shift injecting warmer maritime air or prolonged clear skies enabling greater solar insolation, potentially pushing highs to 19-20°C if shortwave radiation exceeds 400 W/m².
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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