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Gagnant de l'élection de l'Assemblée populaire nationale de Guinée-Bissau

Market icon

Gagnant de l'élection de l'Assemblée populaire nationale de Guinée-Bissau

PT 40.9%

MUNDO-GB 14.6%

Platforma Reupblicana « Nô Kumpu Guiné » 14.0%

FLING 6.1%

Polymarket

$112,963 Vol.

PT 40.9%

MUNDO-GB 14.6%

Platforma Reupblicana « Nô Kumpu Guiné » 14.0%

FLING 6.1%

Polymarket

$112,963 Vol.

PT

$15,763 Vol.

29%

MUNDO-GB

$16,145 Vol.

15%

Platforma Reupblicana « Nô Kumpu Guiné »

$27,529 Vol.

19%

FLING

$10,534 Vol.

6%

FREPASNA

$22,533 Vol.

6%

PS

$20,458 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau. If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus gives PT a narrow edge at 27.8% to win the most seats in Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly election, but the race stays tight with Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” at 19.1% and MUNDO-GB at 16.7%, mirroring the proportional representation system that routinely yields fragmented results and hung parliaments requiring coalition negotiations. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics amid ongoing political instability following President Embaló's 2023 reelection and prior coup attempts, leaving odds anchored to recent polling averages showing split support across urban-rural divides and ethnic blocs. Separation could arise from key endorsements, campaign momentum in battleground regions, or snap election triggers like a no-confidence vote.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.

If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$112,963
Date de fin
Nov 23, 2025
Marché ouvert
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau. If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus gives PT a narrow edge at 27.8% to win the most seats in Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly election, but the race stays tight with Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” at 19.1% and MUNDO-GB at 16.7%, mirroring the proportional representation system that routinely yields fragmented results and hung parliaments requiring coalition negotiations. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics amid ongoing political instability following President Embaló's 2023 reelection and prior coup attempts, leaving odds anchored to recent polling averages showing split support across urban-rural divides and ethnic blocs. Separation could arise from key endorsements, campaign momentum in battleground regions, or snap election triggers like a no-confidence vote.

Trader consensus gives PT a narrow edge at 27.8% to win the most seats in Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly election, but the race stays tight with Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” at 19.1% and MUNDO-GB at 16.7%, mirroring the proportional representation system that routinely yields fragmented results and hung parliaments requiring coalition negotiations. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics amid ongoing political instability following President Embaló's 2023 reelection and prior coup attempts, leaving odds anchored to recent polling averages showing split support across urban-rural divides and ethnic blocs. Separation could arise from key endorsements, campaign momentum in battleground regions, or snap election triggers like a no-confidence vote.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Gagnant de l'élection de l'Assemblée populaire nationale de Guinée-Bissau » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « PT » à 29%, suivi de « Platforma Reupblicana « Nô Kumpu Guiné » » à 19%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 29¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 29% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Gagnant de l'élection de l'Assemblée populaire nationale de Guinée-Bissau » a généré $113K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 7, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Gagnant de l'élection de l'Assemblée populaire nationale de Guinée-Bissau », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Gagnant de l'élection de l'Assemblée populaire nationale de Guinée-Bissau » est « PT » à 29%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 29% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Platforma Reupblicana « Nô Kumpu Guiné » » à 19%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Gagnant de l'élection de l'Assemblée populaire nationale de Guinée-Bissau » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.