Polymarket traders assign a 38.3% implied probability to Canada annual CPI inflation landing in the 3.5-3.9% range for 2026, narrowly leading the 32.0% odds for 3.0-3.4%, highlighting closely matched sentiment amid divergent pressures. February 2026 headline inflation cooled to 1.8% year-over-year per Statistics Canada—down from January's 2.3%—driven by base-year effects from prior GST/HST relief, yet core measures remain sticky above 2% due to persistent shelter costs. Geopolitical tensions, including war-fueled energy surges, have prompted forecasts like National Bank's for a potential rebound to 3.3%, outpacing Bank of Canada projections near the 2% target despite its March 18 policy rate hold at 2.25%. Key swing factors include the March CPI release on April 20 and the April 29 monetary policy update.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourInflation annuelle au Canada 2026
Inflation annuelle au Canada 2026
3,0-3,4 % 39.7%
3,5-3,9 % 38.3%
2,0–2,4 % 16%
2,5–2,9 % 13%
$15,759 Vol.
$15,759 Vol.
18 janv. 2027
<1,0 %
6%
1,0–1,4 %
<1%
1,5–1,9 %
3%
2,0–2,4 %
11%
2,5–2,9 %
20%
3,0-3,4 %
32%
3,5-3,9 %
38%
4,0 % +
22%
3,0-3,4 % 39.7%
3,5-3,9 % 38.3%
2,0–2,4 % 16%
2,5–2,9 % 13%
$15,759 Vol.
$15,759 Vol.
18 janv. 2027
<1,0 %
$282 Vol.
6%
1,0–1,4 %
$303 Vol.
<1%
1,5–1,9 %
$568 Vol.
3%
2,0–2,4 %
$338 Vol.
11%
2,5–2,9 %
$459 Vol.
20%
3,0-3,4 %
$13,221 Vol.
32%
3,5-3,9 %
$263 Vol.
38%
4,0 % +
$325 Vol.
22%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Polymarket traders assign a 38.3% implied probability to Canada annual CPI inflation landing in the 3.5-3.9% range for 2026, narrowly leading the 32.0% odds for 3.0-3.4%, highlighting closely matched sentiment amid divergent pressures. February 2026 headline inflation cooled to 1.8% year-over-year per Statistics Canada—down from January's 2.3%—driven by base-year effects from prior GST/HST relief, yet core measures remain sticky above 2% due to persistent shelter costs. Geopolitical tensions, including war-fueled energy surges, have prompted forecasts like National Bank's for a potential rebound to 3.3%, outpacing Bank of Canada projections near the 2% target despite its March 18 policy rate hold at 2.25%. Key swing factors include the March CPI release on April 20 and the April 29 monetary policy update.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$15,759Date de fin
18 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Polymarket traders assign a 38.3% implied probability to Canada annual CPI inflation landing in the 3.5-3.9% range for 2026, narrowly leading the 32.0% odds for 3.0-3.4%, highlighting closely matched sentiment amid divergent pressures. February 2026 headline inflation cooled to 1.8% year-over-year per Statistics Canada—down from January's 2.3%—driven by base-year effects from prior GST/HST relief, yet core measures remain sticky above 2% due to persistent shelter costs. Geopolitical tensions, including war-fueled energy surges, have prompted forecasts like National Bank's for a potential rebound to 3.3%, outpacing Bank of Canada projections near the 2% target despite its March 18 policy rate hold at 2.25%. Key swing factors include the March CPI release on April 20 and the April 29 monetary policy update.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$15,759Date de fin
18 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 38.3% implied probability to Canada annual CPI inflation landing in the 3.5-3.9% range for 2026, narrowly leading the 32.0% odds for 3.0-3.4%, highlighting closely matched sentiment amid divergent pressures. February 2026 headline inflation cooled to 1.8% year-over-year per Statistics Canada—down from January's 2.3%—driven by base-year effects from prior GST/HST relief, yet core measures remain sticky above 2% due to persistent shelter costs. Geopolitical tensions, including war-fueled energy surges, have prompted forecasts like National Bank's for a potential rebound to 3.3%, outpacing Bank of Canada projections near the 2% target despite its March 18 policy rate hold at 2.25%. Key swing factors include the March CPI release on April 20 and the April 29 monetary policy update.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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