Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46%-40% in first-round scenarios for the October 4 election, a narrow 6-point margin fueling trader consensus on Lula's under-5% victory edge at 37%. Flávio's surge—closing a prior 12-point gap via his father's endorsement and Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal consolidating right-wing votes—positions his sub-5% win at 20%, with runoffs now in technical ties per Bloomberg data. Renan Santos' rising youth support among MBL backers boosts his outright victory odds to 9%, amid Lula's 53% disapproval underscoring a polarized, contested first round absent any 50%+ frontrunner.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPremier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 20%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Victoire de Renan Santos 8.6%
$205,632 Vol.
$205,632 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
8%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
20%
Victoire de Renan Santos
9%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
2%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
2%
Autre
4%
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 20%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Victoire de Renan Santos 8.6%
$205,632 Vol.
$205,632 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,567 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
$1,330 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$1,727 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,590 Vol.
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
$695 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$688 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$1,489 Vol.
20%
Victoire de Renan Santos
$192,352 Vol.
9%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
$531 Vol.
2%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
$818 Vol.
2%
Autre
$845 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46%-40% in first-round scenarios for the October 4 election, a narrow 6-point margin fueling trader consensus on Lula's under-5% victory edge at 37%. Flávio's surge—closing a prior 12-point gap via his father's endorsement and Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal consolidating right-wing votes—positions his sub-5% win at 20%, with runoffs now in technical ties per Bloomberg data. Renan Santos' rising youth support among MBL backers boosts his outright victory odds to 9%, amid Lula's 53% disapproval underscoring a polarized, contested first round absent any 50%+ frontrunner.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$205,632Date de fin
Oct 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46%-40% in first-round scenarios for the October 4 election, a narrow 6-point margin fueling trader consensus on Lula's under-5% victory edge at 37%. Flávio's surge—closing a prior 12-point gap via his father's endorsement and Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal consolidating right-wing votes—positions his sub-5% win at 20%, with runoffs now in technical ties per Bloomberg data. Renan Santos' rising youth support among MBL backers boosts his outright victory odds to 9%, amid Lula's 53% disapproval underscoring a polarized, contested first round absent any 50%+ frontrunner.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$205,632Date de fin
Oct 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46%-40% in first-round scenarios for the October 4 election, a narrow 6-point margin fueling trader consensus on Lula's under-5% victory edge at 37%. Flávio's surge—closing a prior 12-point gap via his father's endorsement and Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal consolidating right-wing votes—positions his sub-5% win at 20%, with runoffs now in technical ties per Bloomberg data. Renan Santos' rising youth support among MBL backers boosts his outright victory odds to 9%, amid Lula's 53% disapproval underscoring a polarized, contested first round absent any 50%+ frontrunner.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes