Traders assign a 61.5% probability that the proposed 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act fails to pass because the measure, despite qualifying for the November ballot after proponents submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April, confronts substantial legal and political obstacles. The initiative would impose a one-time 5% excise tax on the net worth of roughly 200 California residents exceeding $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, directing proceeds primarily to healthcare programs amid federal funding cuts. Federal lawmakers have introduced legislation targeting its retroactive application to former residents, while analysts highlight constitutional challenges over property taxation, interstate commerce, and enforcement. Historical patterns of voter resistance to broad wealth levies and anticipated counter-measures further shape the current consensus reflected in market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$3,328,454 Vol.
$3,328,454 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Oui
$3,328,454 Vol.
$3,328,454 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 61.5% probability that the proposed 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act fails to pass because the measure, despite qualifying for the November ballot after proponents submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April, confronts substantial legal and political obstacles. The initiative would impose a one-time 5% excise tax on the net worth of roughly 200 California residents exceeding $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, directing proceeds primarily to healthcare programs amid federal funding cuts. Federal lawmakers have introduced legislation targeting its retroactive application to former residents, while analysts highlight constitutional challenges over property taxation, interstate commerce, and enforcement. Historical patterns of voter resistance to broad wealth levies and anticipated counter-measures further shape the current consensus reflected in market pricing.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,328,454Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 61.5% probability that the proposed 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act fails to pass because the measure, despite qualifying for the November ballot after proponents submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April, confronts substantial legal and political obstacles. The initiative would impose a one-time 5% excise tax on the net worth of roughly 200 California residents exceeding $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, directing proceeds primarily to healthcare programs amid federal funding cuts. Federal lawmakers have introduced legislation targeting its retroactive application to former residents, while analysts highlight constitutional challenges over property taxation, interstate commerce, and enforcement. Historical patterns of voter resistance to broad wealth levies and anticipated counter-measures further shape the current consensus reflected in market pricing.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,328,454Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 61.5% probability that the proposed 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act fails to pass because the measure, despite qualifying for the November ballot after proponents submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April, confronts substantial legal and political obstacles. The initiative would impose a one-time 5% excise tax on the net worth of roughly 200 California residents exceeding $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, directing proceeds primarily to healthcare programs amid federal funding cuts. Federal lawmakers have introduced legislation targeting its retroactive application to former residents, while analysts highlight constitutional challenges over property taxation, interstate commerce, and enforcement. Historical patterns of voter resistance to broad wealth levies and anticipated counter-measures further shape the current consensus reflected in market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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