Trader consensus favors CDU with 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent 22% lead in recent polls from INSA and Infratest dimap over a fragmented field where AfD polls at 17%, followed closely by Linke, SPD, and Grüne around 15-16%. Incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from stable voter support amid opposition disunity, with small parties like FDP and BSW below the 5% threshold. CDU's momentum strengthened by its March 22 victory in Rhineland-Palatinate, displacing SPD after 35 years, amid national strength under Chancellor Merz. AfD's 14% pricing tracks its polling gains as second-place contender, while others lag due to vote splitting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin
Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin
CDU 50%
AfD 13.5%
Linke 13%
Les Verts 10.2%
$1,829,071 Vol.
$1,829,071 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
50%
AfD
14%
Linke
13%
Les Verts
10%
SPD
9%
BSW
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 50%
AfD 13.5%
Linke 13%
Les Verts 10.2%
$1,829,071 Vol.
$1,829,071 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$9,012 Vol.
50%
AfD
$1,478,402 Vol.
14%
Linke
$8,150 Vol.
13%
Les Verts
$23,073 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,769 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,565 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$8,318 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,121 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent 22% lead in recent polls from INSA and Infratest dimap over a fragmented field where AfD polls at 17%, followed closely by Linke, SPD, and Grüne around 15-16%. Incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from stable voter support amid opposition disunity, with small parties like FDP and BSW below the 5% threshold. CDU's momentum strengthened by its March 22 victory in Rhineland-Palatinate, displacing SPD after 35 years, amid national strength under Chancellor Merz. AfD's 14% pricing tracks its polling gains as second-place contender, while others lag due to vote splitting.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,829,071Date de fin
Sep 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent 22% lead in recent polls from INSA and Infratest dimap over a fragmented field where AfD polls at 17%, followed closely by Linke, SPD, and Grüne around 15-16%. Incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from stable voter support amid opposition disunity, with small parties like FDP and BSW below the 5% threshold. CDU's momentum strengthened by its March 22 victory in Rhineland-Palatinate, displacing SPD after 35 years, amid national strength under Chancellor Merz. AfD's 14% pricing tracks its polling gains as second-place contender, while others lag due to vote splitting.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,829,071Date de fin
Sep 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent 22% lead in recent polls from INSA and Infratest dimap over a fragmented field where AfD polls at 17%, followed closely by Linke, SPD, and Grüne around 15-16%. Incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from stable voter support amid opposition disunity, with small parties like FDP and BSW below the 5% threshold. CDU's momentum strengthened by its March 22 victory in Rhineland-Palatinate, displacing SPD after 35 years, amid national strength under Chancellor Merz. AfD's 14% pricing tracks its polling gains as second-place contender, while others lag due to vote splitting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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