Trader consensus favors CDU to claim the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its stable 22% polling lead in the latest INSA survey (February 17–24), five points ahead of AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke clustered at 15–17%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition holds steady amid fragmented opposition, projecting CDU 34 seats against 23–25 for rivals in a 130+ seat house under mixed-member proportional representation. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz reinforces this edge, with no major shifts in the past month; upcoming campaign events could test the closely contested field where majorities require 66 seats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin
Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin
CDU 51%
Linke 13%
Les Verts 11.8%
AfD 10.7%
$1,890,265 Vol.
$1,890,265 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
51%
Linke
13%
Les Verts
12%
AfD
11%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 51%
Linke 13%
Les Verts 11.8%
AfD 10.7%
$1,890,265 Vol.
$1,890,265 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$9,012 Vol.
51%
Linke
$8,150 Vol.
13%
Les Verts
$23,086 Vol.
12%
AfD
$1,539,245 Vol.
11%
SPD
$281,769 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,565 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,318 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,121 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU to claim the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its stable 22% polling lead in the latest INSA survey (February 17–24), five points ahead of AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke clustered at 15–17%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition holds steady amid fragmented opposition, projecting CDU 34 seats against 23–25 for rivals in a 130+ seat house under mixed-member proportional representation. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz reinforces this edge, with no major shifts in the past month; upcoming campaign events could test the closely contested field where majorities require 66 seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,890,265Date de fin
Sep 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU to claim the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its stable 22% polling lead in the latest INSA survey (February 17–24), five points ahead of AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke clustered at 15–17%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition holds steady amid fragmented opposition, projecting CDU 34 seats against 23–25 for rivals in a 130+ seat house under mixed-member proportional representation. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz reinforces this edge, with no major shifts in the past month; upcoming campaign events could test the closely contested field where majorities require 66 seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,890,265Date de fin
Sep 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU to claim the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its stable 22% polling lead in the latest INSA survey (February 17–24), five points ahead of AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke clustered at 15–17%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition holds steady amid fragmented opposition, projecting CDU 34 seats against 23–25 for rivals in a 130+ seat house under mixed-member proportional representation. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz reinforces this edge, with no major shifts in the past month; upcoming campaign events could test the closely contested field where majorities require 66 seats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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