Despite over a month of intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership targets since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026, Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war, as required by the Constitution for official status—maintaining trader consensus on low probabilities amid historical precedent of no declarations since World War II. Recent escalation includes Iran downing two US warplanes yesterday, prompting search-and-rescue operations, while President Trump emphasizes "decisive success" against the regime without seeking congressional authorization; GOP senators criticize ongoing operations sans declaration. Congressional briefings reveal tensions over escalation, with no votes scheduled, though UN calls for de-escalation and Iranian warnings to US troops heighten risks of further military action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$5,260,014 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
April 30
1%
December 31
8%
$5,260,014 Vol.
April 30
$370,020 Vol.
1%
December 31
$338,858 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Despite over a month of intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership targets since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026, Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war, as required by the Constitution for official status—maintaining trader consensus on low probabilities amid historical precedent of no declarations since World War II. Recent escalation includes Iran downing two US warplanes yesterday, prompting search-and-rescue operations, while President Trump emphasizes "decisive success" against the regime without seeking congressional authorization; GOP senators criticize ongoing operations sans declaration. Congressional briefings reveal tensions over escalation, with no votes scheduled, though UN calls for de-escalation and Iranian warnings to US troops heighten risks of further military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$5,260,014End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Despite over a month of intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership targets since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026, Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war, as required by the Constitution for official status—maintaining trader consensus on low probabilities amid historical precedent of no declarations since World War II. Recent escalation includes Iran downing two US warplanes yesterday, prompting search-and-rescue operations, while President Trump emphasizes "decisive success" against the regime without seeking congressional authorization; GOP senators criticize ongoing operations sans declaration. Congressional briefings reveal tensions over escalation, with no votes scheduled, though UN calls for de-escalation and Iranian warnings to US troops heighten risks of further military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,260,014End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Despite over a month of intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership targets since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026, Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war, as required by the Constitution for official status—maintaining trader consensus on low probabilities amid historical precedent of no declarations since World War II. Recent escalation includes Iran downing two US warplanes yesterday, prompting search-and-rescue operations, while President Trump emphasizes "decisive success" against the regime without seeking congressional authorization; GOP senators criticize ongoing operations sans declaration. Congressional briefings reveal tensions over escalation, with no votes scheduled, though UN calls for de-escalation and Iranian warnings to US troops heighten risks of further military action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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