This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by February 28, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

The border between Oblasts shaded in light purple on the ISW map will not qualify. Territory across the Oblast border must be shaded red to count.

Once Russia captures territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.