Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by...?
$306,924 Vol.
Oct 31, 2025
October 31
$30,251 Vol.
No
October 31
$30,251 Vol.
No
November 30
$172,214 Vol.
Yes
November 30
$172,214 Vol.
Yes
December 31
$104,458 Vol.
Yes
December 31
$104,458 Vol.
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-28 and Dniprovskyi provulok located in Novopavlivka by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novopavlivka+intersection.jpeg
Novopavlivka location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novopavlivka.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/JvQ3C5D59F42QJse6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-28 and Dniprovskyi provulok located in Novopavlivka by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novopavlivka+intersection.jpeg
Novopavlivka location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novopavlivka.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/JvQ3C5D59F42QJse6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novopavlivka+intersection.jpeg
Novopavlivka location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novopavlivka.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/JvQ3C5D59F42QJse6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Created At: Sep 12, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$306,924End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Sep 12, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by...?
$306,924 Vol.
October 31
$30,251 Vol.
No
November 30
$172,214 Vol.
Yes
December 31
$104,458 Vol.
Yes
About
Volume
$306,924End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Sep 12, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.