Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
$1,962,491 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,962,491
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Comments (148)
Top Holders
Activity
Related
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CelticsForW
37m ago
tired of uma being rigged? google poly alert hub it shows which side is owned most by the top whales - be a cash grabber, not giver.
0x3f23342D6f3092...
6h ago
My friends, there will be no attack.
MAGA-2024
7h ago
a good time for buying NO. Uncle Xi will thank you
rand333
1d ago
sha wan yi fa bu liao zhong wen
Lunarcorona
1d ago
https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_6e3e37ee-341e-4df0-8c9e-504c5b06761b
portfolio
1d ago
China will definitely recover Taiwan this year, but it will not be an invasion. does not want to make this kind of money, and polymarket is obviously talking nonsense without any logic.
fishy-cultist
1d ago
This is one of the dumbest bets. I'd probably be dead if they did so might as well bet no.
BreakEven
1d ago
bet more
Exeggut
1d ago
The time is now
Theone1897
4d ago
It is impossible for China to initiate a war on its own initiative. Even World War III.
jalalwins
7h ago
Yep! China is strong only on paper
apein
12d ago
go cina go
ShaunEC
18d ago
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/will-putin-agree-ceasefire
Insanoflex
18d ago
China could easily take Kinmen, Wuqiu or Matsu islands. That would be the first step.
web3nerd
20d ago
12%APY
ShaunEC
22d ago
I wouldnt hold no, those kinmen islands china could take in a day, and they will.
wenkaiyn
23d ago
Good chance to earn a 11% APY😆 LFG🚀🚀🚀
ButtonForest
23d ago
I'm visiting in a few month. I should maybe buy some Yes, such that if it happens, at least my family will be rich
UNSERLD
25d ago
invade ? Taiwan is Chinese territory. A bunch of history idiots.
laivinc
1d ago
LMAO,In 1945, World War II ended and Japan was defeated. In the Cairo Declaration, Japan demanded the return of Taiwan, Penghu, and Manchuria to the Republic of China. The Republic of China was founded on January 1, 1912, the People's Republic of China was founded on October 1, 1949, who is a historical idiot
RickyRizzler
28d ago
Is this something? “China will work to firmly advance 'reunification' with Taiwan, premier says” https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-will-work-firmly-advance-reunification-with-taiwan-premier-2025-03-05/
TheStoicTrader
27d ago
"if China commences a military offensive"
bpratt012
30d ago
Nvidia factories going to the US… Why protect them if we already have their chips
OneT
1mo ago
Guys i talk to Xi, and he said he will not do it in 2025
automobile
1mo ago
Taiwan Province is the inherent territory of MAGA DADY AND BIG BAZZ$
OneT
1mo ago
What do you mean "invade"? Taiwan Province is the inherent territory of China. This is just an internal dispute, which can only be called "recovering territory" at most. Therefore, this gambling contract is originally a problem with ambiguity.
notwhy
1mo ago
please no
fatass
1mo ago
Guys i talk to Xi, and he said he will not do it in 2025
44wuwu
1mo ago
invade?
chillguy888
2mo ago
hm
eryhain
2mo ago
All Chinese will by no
pointerstart
2mo ago
What do you mean "invade"? Taiwan Province is the inherent territory of China. This is just an internal dispute, which can only be called "recovering territory" at most. Therefore, this gambling contract is originally a problem with ambiguity.
Scaggypoos
2mo ago
i price this at 20%
LittleHankDalton
2mo ago
yo bro can you give me 96c ill give it back when I make profit
hamlan
2mo ago
unlikely, but this polymarket might resolve as ''yes
Duo
2mo ago
If there's ever a scare, Yes will skyrocket, right?
DFK
2mo ago
II don't know if they will, but if there ever will be a good moment to do so, it would be now.
0x4e8ef1da52c85d...
2mo ago
wow
sanliuzi1
2mo ago
how much reward today(Feb 5, 25)? 100U or 700U?
Amount
$