Name: Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Start: 2025-01-29T00:14:07.953519Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

China invade Taiwan

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

G7 foreign ministers have strongly criticized China's recent large-scale military drills around Taiwan as provocative and destabilizing, urging a peaceful resolution through dialogue. Meanwhile, Taiwan's military is conducting extensive simulations to prepare for potential attacks, amid warnings from intelligence sources of a possible Chinese invasion within six months.

G7 Condemns China Drills

G7 foreign ministers urged dialogue for a "peaceful resolution of issues" and referred to China's recent military exercises around Taiwan as provocative and destabilizing.

Foreign ministers from the G7 nations called China's recent military drills around Taiwan provocative and destabilizing while urging dialog for "peaceful resolution of issues." https://t.co/pO7ypwaZyh

G7 foreign ministers have called China's military operations around Taiwan "increasingly frequent and destabilizing" https://t.co/FViK7uBEKy

#china 
https://t.co/KFbGlipW3v
Chinese pilot stated, “U.S. military aircraft, you have entered the China  Taiwan 24 nautical mile zone, what is your intention?” 

The U.S. pilot  replied, “I am operating in international airspace in accordance with  international law.”

 The

Taiwan’s military simulates worst-case scenario: PLA drill turns into attack | South China Morning Post https://t.co/m3jagDYmlr

The G7 foreign ministers expressed deep concern over China’s “provocative actions,” particularly its recent large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, which they say are destabilizing the region and threatening global security and prosperity, according to Reuters. In a joint

G7 Criticizes China Over Recent Military Drills Encircling Taiwan, Calling Them Destabilizing https://t.co/DQqHCBA4zp via @epochtimes

Taiwan’s top national security official holds secret talks in Washington amid China’s military drills. The ‘special channel’ meeting, Trump’s first since January, occurs as NSC faces internal purges.

Taiwan’s Top Security Official Arrives in US for Secret Talks

Taiwan’s top https://t.co/XF2gXKZCeS

G7 foreign ministers condemn China’s latest military drills around Taiwan
https://t.co/IwtWPLUwTa

G7 &amp; EU issue statement on China's military drills around Taiwan:
'We oppose any unilateral actions to threaten such peace and stability, including by force or coercion.'
https://t.co/bKNpb08mRe https://t.co/1XIVaLVDvF

G7 members express deep concern about China’s provocative actions, particularly the recent large-scale military drills around Taiwan. Read full statement here:
https://t.co/GKdGPYqCZm

🇹🇼 🛡️ #Taiwan's military simulating response to #China's "gray zone" tactics and potential 2027 invasion scenarios in massive computer war games ending April 18 🖥️
★ https://t.co/m8QJVge99d ★ https://t.co/TabQkYMAWd

The G7 foreign ministers in a joint statement raised concern over China’s military drills around Taiwan last week, urging "the peaceful resolution of issues through constructive cross-strait dialogue"
https://t.co/gBmQrZ9Azm
Photo: AFP https://t.co/cBNssYvPUZ

Huge Chinese military exercises around Taiwan spark 'deep concern' from US, UK 
The US and its allies set aside internal tensions to condemn China's latest wave of military drills around Taiwan  https://t.co/GXfZd02wRq

Taiwan’s military simulates worst-case scenario: PLA drill turns into attack https://t.co/9sKB9aoJj9

The G7 Foreign Ministers have released a statement on China’s large-scale military drills around Taiwan:

"G7 members and the larger int'l community have an interest in the preservation of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait." 

Full text 👇
https://t.co/wN8pUcs5CV

China may attempt a military takeover of Taiwan within the next six months, say analysts.

Is the Indo-Pacific headed toward its biggest crisis yet?

#China #Taiwan #Geopolitics #BreakingNews #MilitaryTensions #ChinaInvasion #GlobalSecurity #TaiwanCrisis https://t.co/VpWDgc5s8H

Intel sources warn China may invade Taiwan within six months, leveraging "grey zone" tactics and military rehearsals.

CCP Chinas actions appear to have moved beyond preparation to REHEARSALS. https://t.co/EMjjK9lzyg

China’s cooking up big plans to invade Taiwan by 2027- but Taiwan just clapped back with its biggest military drills ever. 14 days of serious training, not just for war, but for all the sneaky stuff China keeps doing. 1/4 https://t.co/JRm6WSoliH

China will launch an invasion of Taiwan „in the next six months“, intel sources warn according to 19FortyFive. Beijing believes, they say, that the Trump administration will either be unwilling or unable to prevent an invasion by the Chinese military https://t.co/vzfKJmK4lS

China's PLA militia navy is intensifying aggression, now threatening South Korea alongside Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines, escalating regional tensions. Additionally, a new Chinese white paper explicitly includes a 'decapitation strike' in its military strategy for Taiwan's reunification, marking a significant policy shift.

China Escalates Regional Threats

China's PLA militia navy now threatens South Korea, after targeting Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines. The aggression is real and escalating. Why provoke when unity can defeat the CCP? #StandUnited #ChinaThreat 1/3
@quinby123 @1JaySC @HKokbore https://t.co/RpoLdyE3vH

On May 17, 2025, China released a white paper titled "The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era", in which, for the first time, it explicitly included a "decapitation strike" as part of its military plan regarding Taiwan.

How do you think the inclusion of a https://t.co/CmzixNvfQF

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te will mark the end of World War Two in Europe for the first time next week, emphasizing the need to defeat aggression. This move comes as Taiwan faces increasing military pressure from China, highlighting a historical narrative battle.

Taiwan Marks WWII End

Exclusive: President Lai Ching-te will next week mark for the first time in Taiwan the end of World War Two in Europe and underscore that aggression must be defeated, at a time the island is facing increasing military pressure from China https://t.co/5G5A7vVSWq

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te will next week mark for the first time in Taiwan the end of World War Two in Europe and underscore that aggression must be defeated, sources told Reuters, at a time the island is facing increasing military pressure from China.
https://t.co/2eInWYMPTO

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Pakistan between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by India or Pakistan as of April 23, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by India, Pakistan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will India invade Pakistan in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of India between November 11 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by India or Pakistan as of November 11, 2025, 11:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Pakistan, India, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Pakistan invade India in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Afghanistan between June 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Afghanistan or the United States as of June 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will the U.S. invade Afghanistan in 2025?

If Jia Yueting enters mainland China by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, "entering mainland China" is defined as Jia Yueting physically setting foot within the territory of the People’s Republic of China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

Travel through airspace or territorial waters during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally acquires any part of Canadian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Acquisition must be through official government action, such as annexation, treaty, or legislation.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.



Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either China (People's Republic of China) or Japan formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from either the Chinese or Japanese government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Xi visit the US by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi issues a public apology for her recent comments indicating that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could force a military response from Japan by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A public apology is defined as any statement expressing regret, acknowledging error, or retracting her comments which is released in a manner intended for public consumption.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Sanae Takaichi; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Japanese PM apologize for China comments in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war.

Note: Media reports that use the phrase "civil war" metaphorically will not count. Only a wide consensus of reporting that the US has entered a literal civil war will qualify.

US civil war in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.

Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Canada is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Canadian land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Guyana between January 29 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Venezuela, Guyana, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. 

If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.

Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.

An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.

Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Finland between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Finland or Russia as of May 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.


Will Russia invade Finland in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

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Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

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Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

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Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

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