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Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair before July?

Market icon

Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair before July?

No Announcement by June 30  99.9%

Larry Kudlow <1%

Kevin Warsh <1%

Kevin Hassett <1%

Polymarket

$4,822,454 Vol.

No Announcement by June 30  99.9%

Larry Kudlow <1%

Kevin Warsh <1%

Kevin Hassett <1%

Polymarket

$4,822,454 Vol.

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Kevin Warsh

$222,916 Vol.

No

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Kevin Hassett

$1,027,526 Vol.

No

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Arthur Laffer

$1,213,255 Vol.

No

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Larry Kudlow

$1,030,736 Vol.

No

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Judy Shelton

$914,042 Vol.

No

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No Announcement by June 30

$413,977 Vol.

Yes

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump announces Kevin Warsh as his pick for Federal Reserve Chair by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will, resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,822,454
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2024, 7:33 PM ET
Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump announces Kevin Warsh as his pick for Federal Reserve Chair by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will, resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair before July?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Announcement by June 30 " at 100%, followed by "Kevin Warsh" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair before July?" has generated $4.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair before July?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair before July?" is "No Announcement by June 30 " at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kevin Warsh" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair before July?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.