Name: Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
Start: 2024-12-18T15:15:32.371978Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the parties that will be included in the next German government.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alliance 90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) is a part of the first federal government formed after the 2025 German Parliamentary election scheduled to take place February 23. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If no government is formed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 
 

Greens

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD, Alternative für Deutschland) is a part of the first federal government formed after the 2025 German Parliamentary election scheduled to take place February 23. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If no government is formed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 


This market will resolve to "Yes" if Union (Unionsparteien) or CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag)  is a part of the first federal government formed after the 2025 German Parliamentary election scheduled to take place February 23. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If no government is formed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 
 

CDU/CSU

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the SPD (Social Democratic Party, Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) is a part of the first federal government formed after the 2025 German Parliamentary election scheduled to take place February 23. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If no government is formed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 
 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice (BSW, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit) is a part of the first federal government formed after the 2025 German Parliamentary election scheduled to take place February 23. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If no government is formed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 
 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Free Democratic Party (FDP, Freie Demokratische Partei) is a part of the first federal government formed after the 2025 German Parliamentary election scheduled to take place February 23. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If no government is formed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 
 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Left (Die Linke) is a part of the first federal government formed after the 2025 German Parliamentary election scheduled to take place February 23. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If no government is formed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 
 

The Left

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances."

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if another election is called without a government being formed this market will resolve to "No". 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. 

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.

For example:

If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.

If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".

If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. 

In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Bundesliga.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Bundesliga. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a formal application is filed at Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) seeking to ban the political party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) or requesting that the Court assess the constitutionality of the political party as part of a process that could lead to the party’s ban under Article 21(2) of the German Basic Law by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The application must be officially lodged by one of the eligible entities: the Bundestag, the Bundesrat, or the Federal Government. 

This market does not require that the court accept or rule on the application—only that it is formally filed.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


German government files appeal to ban AfD in 2025?

his market will resolve to "Yes" if the political party Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) is banned at the federal level in Germany by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Partial bans at the state level or restrictions short of a full federal ban will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


AfD banned in 2025?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club is officially relegated by the Bundesliga following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?

Six candidates of the German party AfD (Alternative for Germany) in North Rhine-Westphalia—four official contenders and two reserve list candidates—died between mid‑August and early September 2025, ahead of the September 14 local elections, prompting ballot reprints and political controversy.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming at least one of those deaths involved foul play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the German government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any German government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AFD deaths foul play confirmed in 2025?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Bundesliga tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bayern Munich finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic by October 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ANO is part of the first ruling coalition that forms after that election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will stay open until a new government of the Czech Republic is officially installed. If no new government is instated by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on official information from the government of the Czech Republic, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will ANO form a government after Czech election ?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Czech Republic following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Czech Republic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Goals scored in Bundesliga matches only will count. Goals in other competitions (e.g., DFB-Pokal, German Super Cup, Champions League, Europa League, international matches) will not count for this market.

If multiple players tie for the top goal scorer, the market will resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed by August 1, 2026, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official statistics from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Hungary in April or May 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

The 2025 election for half of the seats in Argentina's Chamber of Deputies is scheduled to be held on October 26, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Argentina's Chamber of Deputies as a result of the upcoming election.

If voting in the next Argentine election for the Chamber of Deputies does not occur by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of held won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Argentina's government (e.g. via https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php).

Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

The 2025 election for the full Chamber of Deputies in Chile is scheduled to be held on November 16, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political pact that controls the most seats in Chile’s Chamber of Deputies as a result of the upcoming election.

If voting in the next Chilean election for the Chamber of Deputies does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

In the case of a tie between this pact and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the pact whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named pact.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Chilean Government, specifically the Chilean Electoral Service (Servicio Electoral de Chile, Servel) (https://www.servel.cl/).

Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026?

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2025 election for half of the seats in Argentina's Chamber of Deputies is scheduled to be held on October 26, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of the seats that are contested in this election.

If voting in the next Argentine election for the Chamber of Deputies does not occur by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. 

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Argentina's government (e.g. via https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php).

Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Europa League (https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Cabinet of the Netherlands is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the monarch within this markets timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands, the Staatscourant, or the Royal House (koninklijkhuis.nl); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. 

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an America Party candidate wins a U.S. federal congressional or state gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

The candidate may appear on the ballot as “America Party,” “Independent,” or with no party listed, as long as they have formally declared their affiliation with the America Party.

Expressions of interest, financial donations, or statements of ideological sympathy will not alone qualify unless accompanied by a clear claim of party affiliation.

Candidates listed on the ballot as members of another established party (e.g., Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, etc.) will not qualify, even if they express support for or claim affiliation with the American Party or Elon Musk.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

America Party wins a federal or gubernatorial election in 2025?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?

The 2025 Senate election in Chile, which elects half of the seats, is scheduled to be held on November 16, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political pact that gains the greatest number of Senate seats as a result of the 2025 election.

If voting in the next Chilean Senate election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

In the case of a tie between multiple pacts for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the pact whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named pact in the 2025 Senate election.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Chilean Government, specifically the Chilean Electoral Service (Servicio Electoral de Chile, Servel) (https://www.servel.cl/).

Will Chile Grande y Unido gain the most seats in the Senate election?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 La Liga.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 La Liga. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 La Liga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from La Liga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date for the next Polish parliamentary election is set between June 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Polish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Poland however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polish snap election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between October 21, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

AfD
$3,811,780 Vol.
No

CDU/CSU
$1,374,082 Vol.
Yes

SPD
$574,745 Vol.
Yes

Greens
$666,172 Vol.
No

BSW
$1,021,362 Vol.
No

FDP
$1,673,888 Vol.
No

The Left
$814,596 Vol.
No

Market Context

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

Rules

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

Market Context

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

About

Related

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

AfD$3,811,780 Vol.Nocircle xmark

CDU/CSU$1,374,082 Vol.Yescircle check

SPD$574,745 Vol.Yescircle check

Greens$666,172 Vol.Nocircle xmark

BSW$1,021,362 Vol.Nocircle xmark

FDP$1,673,888 Vol.Nocircle xmark

The Left$814,596 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

Rules

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

Market Context

Which Parties will be part of next German Government?

About

Related

AfD
$3,811,780 Vol.
No

CDU/CSU
$1,374,082 Vol.
Yes

SPD
$574,745 Vol.
Yes

Greens
$666,172 Vol.
No

BSW
$1,021,362 Vol.
No

FDP
$1,673,888 Vol.
No

The Left
$814,596 Vol.
No