Trader consensus on Polymarket for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 centers on Saudi Arabia's February announcement inviting key Middle Eastern and Asian nations to the Riyadh-based initiative aimed at regional de-escalation, with UAE and Bahrain showing high implied probabilities above 80% after official confirmations last week. Jordan and Morocco trade around 60%, buoyed by diplomatic endorsements, while Pakistan and Indonesia lag at 30-40% amid internal political hurdles. Recent catalyst: Egypt's tentative positive signal on March 15, lifting its odds 15 points. Traders eye the March 25 summit for binding commitments, where reluctance from Turkey could cap expansion; odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of alignment incentives versus sovereignty concerns in fluid geopolitics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,891,811 Vol.
Russia
2%
India
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
U.K.
2%
Italy
2%
Brazil
1%
Belgium
1%
France
1%
Germany
1%
Sweden
1%
Norway
1%
Spain
1%
Finland
1%
Denmark
1%
Switzerland
1%
Netherlands
1%
China
1%
$1,891,811 Vol.
Russia
2%
India
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
U.K.
2%
Italy
2%
Brazil
1%
Belgium
1%
France
1%
Germany
1%
Sweden
1%
Norway
1%
Spain
1%
Finland
1%
Denmark
1%
Switzerland
1%
Netherlands
1%
China
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 centers on Saudi Arabia's February announcement inviting key Middle Eastern and Asian nations to the Riyadh-based initiative aimed at regional de-escalation, with UAE and Bahrain showing high implied probabilities above 80% after official confirmations last week. Jordan and Morocco trade around 60%, buoyed by diplomatic endorsements, while Pakistan and Indonesia lag at 30-40% amid internal political hurdles. Recent catalyst: Egypt's tentative positive signal on March 15, lifting its odds 15 points. Traders eye the March 25 summit for binding commitments, where reluctance from Turkey could cap expansion; odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of alignment incentives versus sovereignty concerns in fluid geopolitics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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