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Politics·Mentions

What will Trump say in May?

icon for What will Trump say in May?
Politics·Mentions

What will Trump say in May?

NEW
May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$195 Vol.

Polymarket

Pope

$46 Vol.

60%

Barack Hussein Obamacare

$5 Vol.

25%

Bunker

$0 Vol.

41%

Egghead

$2 Vol.

33%

Iwo Jima

$1 Vol.

32%

Six Seven

$10 Vol.

54%

Mar-a-Lago

$3 Vol.

76%

Golden Dome

$0 Vol.

54%

Skedaddle

$1 Vol.

48%

ISIS

$5 Vol.

68%

Pizza

$1 Vol.

48%

Prediction Market

$2 Vol.

30%

Discombobulator / Discombobulated

$0 Vol.

52%

Braggadocious

$0 Vol.

29%

Bitcoin

$0 Vol.

42%

Epstein

$8 Vol.

52%

Asshole

$9 Vol.

27%

Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer

$0 Vol.

44%

Pulitzer

$0 Vol.

46%

Favorite Chart

$0 Vol.

48%

Big Bang

$1 Vol.

50%

Darth Vader

$2 Vol.

25%

White House Faith Office

$0 Vol.

45%

Christmas

$0 Vol.

26%

Robot

$1 Vol.

37%

Nuke

$96 Vol.

67%

Terminate the Filibuster

$0 Vol.

48%

Cat

$0 Vol.

44%

America Last

$0 Vol.

39%

Neville / Chamberlain

$0 Vol.

27%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's apparent survival of a shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner on April 25—followed by suspect charges for attempted assassination on April 27—has sharpened trader consensus on his verbal rhetoric during May 1–31 public appearances, as captured in recorded audio or video. Leading outcomes like Mar-a-Lago reflect his longstanding rally habits, while faith-themed terms such as Pope gain from the announced May 17 National Mall event for prayer and rededicating America as "one nation under God." His April 24 criticism of prediction markets as a "global casino" elevates related phrases. Geopolitical pressures, including Strait of Hormuz tensions and potential blockade lift by May 31, alongside Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term end on May 15 and crypto legislation markup, could prompt mentions of ISIS, Nuke, or Bitcoin.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$195
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's apparent survival of a shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner on April 25—followed by suspect charges for attempted assassination on April 27—has sharpened trader consensus on his verbal rhetoric during May 1–31 public appearances, as captured in recorded audio or video. Leading outcomes like Mar-a-Lago reflect his longstanding rally habits, while faith-themed terms such as Pope gain from the announced May 17 National Mall event for prayer and rededicating America as "one nation under God." His April 24 criticism of prediction markets as a "global casino" elevates related phrases. Geopolitical pressures, including Strait of Hormuz tensions and potential blockade lift by May 31, alongside Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term end on May 15 and crypto legislation markup, could prompt mentions of ISIS, Nuke, or Bitcoin.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$195
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Trump say in May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 30 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mar-a-Lago" at 76%, followed by "ISIS" at 68%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will Trump say in May?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will Trump say in May?," browse the 30 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Trump say in May?" is "Mar-a-Lago" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ISIS" at 68%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Trump say in May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.