Name: What will Trump say during his RNC speech?
Start: 2024-07-16T21:12:52.661537Z
End: 2024-07-18T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "fake news" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Fake News

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "felon" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "felon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person convicted of a serious crime.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Felon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "hunter" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market (e.g. "He is a hunter in his free time" counts).

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms (such as "hunting") will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Hunter" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the son of the US President, Hunter Biden.

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Hunter

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "jew" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Jew" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the religion (e.g. "Jew-lover" counts).

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the acronym for Make America Great Again.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

MAGA

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "jail" or "prison at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "jail" or "prison" is part of the compound word and refers to a place where criminals are held.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Jail/Prison

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crack" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crack" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the drug (e.g. "crackhead" counts but "crackdown" doesn't).

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Crack

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "rigged" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count (e.g. "rig" and "rigs" won't count).

Compound words will count as long as "rigged" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to something which has been manipulated or controlled dishonestly.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Rigged

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "dementia" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "dementia" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to symptoms related to memory/decision-making.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Dementia

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Jesus" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Jesus" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the central figure of Christianity.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Jesus

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "ear" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "ear" is part of the compound word which refers to the organ used for hearing

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crypto", "cryptocurrency", "Bitcoin", or "BTC" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the words regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Crypto/Bitcoin

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "January 6", "J6", or "Jan 6" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the terms regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the terms will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

The ordinal from of six, 'sixth', will count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

January 6

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "hillbilly" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "hillbilly" is part of the compound word which refers to a rural, uneducated person.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Hillbilly

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Hitler" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Hitler" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the person Hitler (e.g. "Hitler-like" counts).

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Hitler

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "unity" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "unity" is part of the compound word which refers to the state of being joined. 

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Unity

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Barron" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Barron" is part of the compound word which refers to the person Barron Trump. 

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Barron

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "god" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "god" is part of the compound word which refers to a divine or higher power.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Secret Service" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the terms regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the terms will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Secret Service

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Nicholas J. Fuentes personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling Nicholas J. Fuentes weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “Nick isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to Nicholas J. Fuentes’s professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “Nick isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if Nicholas J. Fuentes is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

Will Trump disparage Nick Fuentes by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city.
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.

Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement 
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump send the national guard to Los Angeles by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Washington Commanders, or the ownership/development entity responsible for the team’s planned new stadium in Washington, D.C., officially announce and agree that the stadium will be named after Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A qualifying announcement must:
- Be made publicly and on the record by the Commanders organization or by the entity that owns or controls the new stadium (e.g., via press release, official statement, or filing).
- Clearly state that the new stadium will bear Trump’s name (for example, “Trump Stadium” or “Donald J. Trump Field”).
- Reflect a finalized agreement or naming-rights deal, not a proposal, negotiation, or expression of intent.

If any other official naming-rights deal is announced for the new stadium prior to June 30, 2026 — including a corporate sponsorship or another individual’s name — this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution sources will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that creates a ‘DOGE dividend’ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any cash transfer, tax credit, or other comparable financial transfer which is referred to as a DOGE dividend, or which is otherwise directly funded by savings created by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will qualify.  

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? 

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) between October 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 8, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Luck" this week? (December 8 - 14)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration officially announces that they will be sending US troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between the United States and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcement which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Donald Trump is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.

Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.

Unsubstantiated claims made by Trump will not alone qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from Donald Trump.

Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 per year in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income, occupation, or other criteria) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax for individuals earning under $150,000. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g., he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Kinzinger serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Adam Kinzinger?

On August 18, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced his commitment to eliminate mail-in voting and voting machines in U.S. elections, ahead of the 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that inhibits mail-in voting or voting machines from use for the 2026 midterm election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any executive action or legislation that restricts, limits, or prohibits the use of mail-in voting or voting machines in any way will qualify, even if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines in 2025?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

Crypto/Bitcoin
$162,788 Vol.
No

Ear
$123,061 Vol.
Yes

Secret Service
$25,509 Vol.
Yes

Unity
$88,896 Vol.
Yes

Jesus
$15,269 Vol.
No

Barron
$44,098 Vol.
Yes

Fake News
$23,582 Vol.
No

Hillbilly
$17,088 Vol.
No

Crack
$29,544 Vol.
No

Hunter
$13,145 Vol.
No

Jail/Prison
$91,471 Vol.
Yes

Dementia
$17,003 Vol.
No

Jew
$10,867 Vol.
No

January 6
$7,823 Vol.
No

MAGA
$77,289 Vol.
Yes

Felon
$2,658 Vol.
No

Hitler
$11,722 Vol.
No

Rigged
$13,702 Vol.
No

God
$25,318 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

Rules

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

Market Context

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

About

Related

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

Crypto/Bitcoin$162,788 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Ear$123,061 Vol.Yescircle check

Secret Service$25,509 Vol.Yescircle check

Unity$88,896 Vol.Yescircle check

Jesus$15,269 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Barron$44,098 Vol.Yescircle check

Fake News$23,582 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Hillbilly$17,088 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Crack$29,544 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Hunter$13,145 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Jail/Prison$91,471 Vol.Yescircle check

Dementia$17,003 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Jew$10,867 Vol.Nocircle xmark

January 6$7,823 Vol.Nocircle xmark

MAGA$77,289 Vol.Yescircle check

Felon$2,658 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Hitler$11,722 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Rigged$13,702 Vol.Nocircle xmark

God$25,318 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

Rules

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

Market Context

What will Trump say during his RNC speech?

About

Related

Crypto/Bitcoin
$162,788 Vol.
No

Ear
$123,061 Vol.
Yes

Secret Service
$25,509 Vol.
Yes

Unity
$88,896 Vol.
Yes

Jesus
$15,269 Vol.
No

Barron
$44,098 Vol.
Yes

Fake News
$23,582 Vol.
No

Hillbilly
$17,088 Vol.
No

Crack
$29,544 Vol.
No

Hunter
$13,145 Vol.
No

Jail/Prison
$91,471 Vol.
Yes

Dementia
$17,003 Vol.
No

Jew
$10,867 Vol.
No

January 6
$7,823 Vol.
No

MAGA
$77,289 Vol.
Yes

Felon
$2,658 Vol.
No

Hitler
$11,722 Vol.
No

Rigged
$13,702 Vol.
No

God
$25,318 Vol.
Yes