Name: What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?
Start: 2024-09-25T00:00:48.919658Z
End: 2024-10-01T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the statements made by JD Vance during the upcoming debate.

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Stolen valor" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Stolen valor

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "rig" or "rigged" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "rig" or "rigged" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to managing or conducting (something) fraudulently so as to produce a result or situation that is advantageous to a particular person.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Rig/Rigged

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "tampon" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the feminine hygiene product.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Tampon

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "abortion" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "abortion" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the deliberate termination of a human pregnancy.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Abortion

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Mamaw" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "mamaw" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers Vance's grandmother.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Mamaw

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "trans" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "trans" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person whose gender identity does not correspond with the sex registered for them at birth (e.g. "transgender" counts).

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Trans

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "border" 5 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Border 5+ times

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Trump" 20 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Trump" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Trump 20+ times

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Kamala", "Harris" or "Kamala Harris" 15 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Usage of the full name "Kamala Harris" will only count as a single mention.

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" and/or "Harris" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Kamala Harris 15+ times

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "China" 3 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in East Asia officially named the People's Republic of China.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

China 3+ times

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Helene" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Helene" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the recent NOAA-named hurricane.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Helene

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Haitian" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Haitian" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the demonym for people from the country of Haiti.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Haitian

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "inflation" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "inflation" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to increases in costs of goods and services.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Inflation

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "IVF" or "In vitro"  any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "IVF" is part of the compound word and references a medical procedure where an egg is fertilized outside the body.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Usha" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Usha" is part of the compound word and references the person Usha Vance.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Usha

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Trump" 30 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Trump" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Trump 30+ times

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Fentanyl" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Fentanyl" is part of the compound word and references the deadly opioid causing widespread overdoses and public health crises.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Fentanyl

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Fire" or "Fired" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Fire" or "Fired" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the act of dismissing an employee.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Fire/Fired

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Hillbilly"  any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "hillbilly" is part of the compound word which refers to a rural, uneducated person.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Hillbilly

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Kamala", "Harris" or "Kamala Harris" 30 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Usage of the full name "Kamala Harris" will only count as a single mention.

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" and/or "Harris" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Kamala Harris 30+ times

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Israel" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Israel" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the middle eastern country.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Israel

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "cat" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "cat" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a small domesticated carnivorous mammal with soft fur, a short snout, and retractable claws.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Illegal alien" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Illegal alien

Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says "Iran" any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Iran" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in the Middle East.

If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the debate.

Iran

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vice President JD Vance announces that he is running for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Vance must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for President" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by JD Vance (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will JD Vance announce Presidential run in 2025?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a talk about the economy in Northeast Pennsylvania on December 9, 2025 (https://x.com/WVIATVFM/status/1996616358092554647).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance in Northeast Pennsylvania on December 9, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Country music" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 8, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 8 - 14)

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Moscow" this week? (December 1 - 7)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Beau Biden, Hunter Biden, Ashley Biden, James "Jim" Biden, Sara Biden, Valerie Biden Owens, John Owens or Francis "Frank" Biden serve any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Biden family member?

This market will resolve according to the election or referendum won by Democrats with the highest margin of victory compared to the other listed events, all scheduled for November 4, 2025:

- Virginia Governor election
- Virginia House of Delegates election
- New Jersey Governor election
- New York City Mayor election
- California referendum “Proposition 50”

If the results of any of these elections are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will be resolved according to the results published thus far.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official election authority sources conducting the election.

Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democratic margin of victory?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will James Osyf be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Tennessee; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Will Van Epps win TN-07 by 5–10%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Nicholas J. Fuentes personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling Nicholas J. Fuentes weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “Nick isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to Nicholas J. Fuentes’s professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “Nick isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if Nicholas J. Fuentes is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

Will Trump disparage Nick Fuentes by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "The Apprentice" in December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stephen A. Smith announces that he is running for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Stephen A. Smith must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for President" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Stephen A. Smith (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Stephen A. Smith announce Presidential run in 2025?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?

Sam Altman is scheduled to appear on the December 8 broadcast of The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: https://www.theverge.com/news/837942/sam-altman-is-going-on-the-tonight-show-next-week

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman says the listed term at any point during this episode. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded videos are aired where Sam Altman is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If this appearance is definitively cancelled by Sam Altman or NBC, or otherwise is not released by December 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.

Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?

This market will resolve based on the number of the following five elections won by the Democratic Party, all scheduled for November 4, 2025. Each event will count as one Democratic win if it occurs:

- Democrats win the Virginia Governor's elections
- Democrats win the Virginia House of Delegates
- Democrats win the New Jersey Governor elections
- Mamdani wins the New York City Mayor election
- California referendum "Proposition 50" passes

Any other elections occurring in November 2025 that are not explicitly listed here will have no bearing on this market’s outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, the market will resolve according to official results published by the jurisdiction’s election authority.

This market will remain open until the official certified results of the listed elections are published. In the case of a tie, the winner determined by the jurisdiction’s official tiebreak mechanism will prevail.

Will Democrats win five elections in Nov?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Andy Levin be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the Democratic Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?tid=1764796601244) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Democratic Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Republican Party in more individual minutes than the Republican Party is ahead of the Democratic Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-democrats-flip-republicans-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Joel Willett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. House election: Republicans flip the Democrats by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Ohio.

If no 2026 Ohio Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Ohio Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-25-by-march-31-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 25% by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

Abortion
$49,779 Vol.
Yes

Tampon
$91,033 Vol.
No

Mamaw
$27,866 Vol.
No

Border 5+ times
$49,433 Vol.
Yes

Trump 20+ times
$77,337 Vol.
Yes

Trump 30+ times
$94,756 Vol.
Yes

Kamala Harris 15+ times
$41,989 Vol.
Yes

Kamala Harris 30+ times
$135,094 Vol.
Yes

China 3+ times
$42,372 Vol.
Yes

Haitian
$55,106 Vol.
No

Trans
$37,504 Vol.
No

Inflation
$26,471 Vol.
Yes

IVF
$40,520 Vol.
No

Usha
$44,013 Vol.
No

Fentanyl
$38,847 Vol.
Yes

Fire/Fired
$56,076 Vol.
Yes

Hillbilly
$76,863 Vol.
No

Israel
$42,432 Vol.
Yes

Cat
$54,478 Vol.
No

Stolen valor
$59,057 Vol.
No

Rig/Rigged
$55,328 Vol.
No

Illegal alien
$54,866 Vol.
Yes

Helene
$22,190 Vol.
No

Iran
$7,447 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

Rules

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

Market Context

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

About

Related

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

Abortion$49,779 Vol.Yescircle check

Tampon$91,033 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Mamaw$27,866 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Border 5+ times$49,433 Vol.Yescircle check

Trump 20+ times$77,337 Vol.Yescircle check

Trump 30+ times$94,756 Vol.Yescircle check

Kamala Harris 15+ times$41,989 Vol.Yescircle check

Kamala Harris 30+ times$135,094 Vol.Yescircle check

China 3+ times$42,372 Vol.Yescircle check

Haitian$55,106 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Trans$37,504 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Inflation$26,471 Vol.Yescircle check

IVF$40,520 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Usha$44,013 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Fentanyl$38,847 Vol.Yescircle check

Fire/Fired$56,076 Vol.Yescircle check

Hillbilly$76,863 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Israel$42,432 Vol.Yescircle check

Cat$54,478 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Stolen valor$59,057 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Rig/Rigged$55,328 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Illegal alien$54,866 Vol.Yescircle check

Helene$22,190 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Iran$7,447 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

Rules

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

Market Context

What will JD Vance say during the VP Debate?

About

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