US recession in 2025?
$862,585 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$862,585
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Comments (111)
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dogeater
3h ago
it should be around 20-25%
Zvc.296
3d ago
farts aggressively*
TheWolfOfPolymar...
5d ago
Never bet against America
Car
5d ago
So, Fed Jerome Powell says they see a chance of 1-4% of a recession, major US banks see a 20-25% of a recession, meanwhile Polymarket degens think 38%. Welcome to polymarket
farv
7d ago
Atalanta Fed just released Q1 GDP estimate: -2.1%. And it doesn't even include March data yet. It will only get worse
KINGOFPSSY
8d ago
Is Trump deliberately trying to crash the stock markets? "The US government has to refinance $7 trillion of debt in the next 6 months. There is no way TRUMP wants to refinance it at current 10-yr yields so this is why he wants stock market to crash pump the bond prices. As bond prices will go up, yields will come down and the US government will be able to refinance their debt at cheap rate. Not only that, lower bond yields will also push the fed to do rate cuts which is bullish for risk-on assets.
Acap2
8d ago
NY FED now estimates 2.7% growth in first two qtr. Wiuld actually be an acceleration from 2024 Q4. If it doesn’t happen first half of 2024 wont happen at all. Especially when people realize tariffs not inflationary, tax cuts kick in. Let the suckers keep betting Yes. Better for us.
nokcha
9d ago
This should be like 15% yes 85% no
Xemo
9d ago
Inverted yield curve guys is never wrong (: the longest inverted yield curve in the history
obi-wan-kenobi
8d ago
6 percent deficit spending compensates for the lack of consumer spending, but tariffs will finish the job in my opinion
Launceston
5d ago
Still hodling YES. 3M10Y Uninversion in Dec 2024 + BOJ rates hiking + Crude Oil Descending Triangle + Truflation deflation + Gold Soaring
OneT
10d ago
Acquisition of 51st State Canada, Acquisition of Greenland, and ending the Ukraine War all points towards NO
Manifested
10d ago
My thesis is no, because even though we may have a recession, the numbers will only be revised down to truly show it way after 2025 and after settlement. This is based on past US recessions. My understanding is based on an expert I trust, so I may be off on this. Do your own research, just wanted to share this thesis.
rdioactiv
10d ago
Meow
Acap2
10d ago
Counted the London to NY gold transfer as an import which GDP doesn’t include. NY Fed nowcast right, 2.7% growth in Qtr 1
Acap2
10d ago
Easiest money I ever made. Fools betting the Atlanta Fed number and even they said it’s wrong.
TrollingTrollLol...
10d ago
Trumpcession part 2 incoming. He’s even embracing it this time.
TPlush
10d ago
Acquisition of 51st State Canada, Acquisition of Greenland, and ending the Ukraine War all points towards NO
TrollingTrollLol...
10d ago
Even if these fairytale things happened, what do they have to do with a recession?
JowDones
8d ago
they're not going to happen but if canada's economy gets integrated into the US economy of course the GDP grows..
porktato
11d ago
I miss skibidi Biden
CamFantastic
11d ago
why is Yes so undervalued. the white house as good as admitted they are trying to cause a recession on purpose
Zvc.296
11d ago
take a credit, buy mooooreee!🤑🤑
ragutwo
11d ago
Good times with Biden
TestLand
12d ago
🤔
farv
13d ago
To resolve yes it needs to be negative in 2 consecutive quarters. In the market below it only needs to happen once and the price is much lower https://polymarket.com/event/negative-gdp-growth-in-q1-2025
CamFantastic
11d ago
even Muskonomics might take a bit longer than 3 weeks to completely wreck the economy
gzacjz
13d ago
s not an official forecast of the Fed.
guazi
13d ago
buy many derivatives or puts that could yield much more than this bet...
Longicaudatus
12d ago
and yet you still bought yes...
Longicaudatus
12d ago
One might have a very strong belief that a recession is coming SOMETIME this year, without any certainty as to when exactly or which stocks will suffer the most as a result of it
Agathocles
13d ago
The recession is on purpose. It's DEFLATIONARY. Stronger dollars + tariffs + immigration restriction will ensure that when the fed eventually lowers the rates, new investment will be in companies in AMERICA creating jobs for AMERICANS. This is entirely the plan. Trump admin is going to keep squeezing the economy through tariffs to make it happen.
w3r0
14d ago
hmm
Dementia.Patient
14d ago
Recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, even Biden couldn't get that simple definition right
HollowSun
13d ago
Usually, but there were exceptions. For covid, it took only 4 months before a declaration.
3D70048-17139104...
13d ago
Biden is the best president ever!!
TheGoldenBullRun
15d ago
"Becoming one of the doomer Macro Guys will occasionally save you a lot of money but if you overstay your welcome you will 100% turn into a raging homosexual." @BigDickBull69
ragutwo
14d ago
The rain dance always works because you dance until it rains
xd.eth
15d ago
lmao no is rekt https://x.com/geiger_capital/status/1898782406326267983?s=46
Joshthebigdog
15d ago
My uncle claims there will be a recession this year. He's gotten 32 of the last 4 recessions right over the last 30 years
ragutwo
15d ago
He sounds like me
JewishGodFatherO...
13d ago
typical polymarket user
magikarpet90812
19d ago
IT'S ALL THE DEMOCRATS' FAULT FOR THE TARIFFS #KANYE2024
ghostsofbaudrill...
19d ago
anyone who seriously believes the chance of a recession is more than 1/3, could buy many derivatives or puts that could yield much more than this bet...
Oxymirin
17d ago
Link
Agathocles
13d ago
Put is way riskier than just waiting for the recession to happen and buying the dip
TheWolfOfPolymar...
19d ago
Economists have been predicting a recession "this year" for the past 4 years
wae0ksd
19d ago
hmmm
JimmyDugan
20d ago
Kind of stupid since NBER declares recessions a year after they start.
JGBgoat22
20d ago
Here will be one but they won’t call it a recession to save face
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