U.S. Recession in 2024?
$875,848 Vol.
Dec 31, 2024
Yes
0% chance 30%
Source: Polymarket.com
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the United States within the calendar year 2024, based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate. This includes any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-Q4. The determination will be based on the most recently released report by the BEA for each quarter.
If GDP data for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised before the release of the Advance Estimate for Q4, the most recent revision available will be used for market resolution instead of the initial Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the release of the Q4 Advance Estimate will not be considered for any quarters, including Q4 itself.
The primary resolution source for this market is the BEA’s official data on the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP, as available on their website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if there is ambiguity in the official data.
If GDP data for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised before the release of the Advance Estimate for Q4, the most recent revision available will be used for market resolution instead of the initial Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the release of the Q4 Advance Estimate will not be considered for any quarters, including Q4 itself.
The primary resolution source for this market is the BEA’s official data on the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP, as available on their website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if there is ambiguity in the official data.
Volume
$875,848
End Date
Dec 31, 2024
Resolution Source
https://www.bea.gov/da...Resolution Source
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-d...Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Comments (88)
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FrancisSP8
3mo ago
what the hell, no dispute?
FrancisSP8
3mo ago
Q4 advance estimate will be released on January 25, 2025. According to the rules, Q3 GDP could theoretically be revised by this point and thus we're waiting for another month.
FrancisSP8
3mo ago
For everyone who's not sure when this market resolves, check the BEA schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full
BoeGumiS
4mo ago
not before the inauguration
hfgbf6dfbd4aa
4mo ago
possibel!
PowellPower
4mo ago
not possible in 2024
Icebeatsfire
4mo ago
Final estimate for q3 2024 comes out december 19. If that is positive there is no possibility of recession and therefore the market should resolve to no on that day
0x19B911549009C7...
4mo ago
there is no time left for a recession this year.
oplkm
4mo ago
Recession
0x19B911549009C7...
4mo ago
time is on our side
NateNate60
5mo ago
BEA Q3 2024 GDP advance estimate: +2.8%
Alesc
5mo ago
When this contract will be liquidated?
jokage
6mo ago
I'd bet on the 2025 recession odds. The government is still stimulating the economy
unfriended
6mo ago
It's coming and the commercial realestate market is going to crash it.
1PrecentRicher
6mo ago
Choosing Yes to recession a good hedge against the Crypto dip due to recession.
TheQuestionner
6mo ago
hahahaha check the fed data and its look like recession
akhenet
6mo ago
you can always buy yes if you believe
AndreBitica
7mo ago
I dont belivie in recession!
sleepyxs
7mo ago
bullrun is coming
sleepyxs
7mo ago
noway
roddy
7mo ago
technically we'll only know if theres a recession 10 years later
SmartCapital
7mo ago
"I do not believe in efficient markets. I believe in inefficient markets. The difference is that inefficient markets allow people to make money."
Easywayout
6mo ago
Mr smart
akhenet
6mo ago
:)
VaithunPhuSang-F...
7mo ago
This recession is very difficult 😂
oiram18
7mo ago
There literally is a market for Q3 decline that gives a 3% chance of GDP reduction and yet this market puts the chance of 2 consecutive negative quarters higher than that…
DerSchwarzeKanal
7mo ago
Wait so let me get this straight, people think the next two consecutive GDP prints are going to be negative? Even thought the last GDP print was 3%?
Mac8
8mo ago
wish there was a NBER version of this pool, because SAHM rule will def be triggered before year end and NBER will likely declare the recession started in 2024 sometime in 2025-Q3
Skip-Earthwax
7mo ago
yeah no
peanutbutter
8mo ago
Recessions can take 6-12 months to be proclaimed. Look at 2007. In December 2008, NBER said the recession started in December 2007.
Skip-Earthwax
7mo ago
nber is not the resolution source
homosexual
8mo ago
The key here is that this definition is for two consecutive quarters. within 2024. Q3 seems solid, despite the Sahm rule indicating that there should be a recession around now. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
RadLilDude
8mo ago
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1239080/us-monthly-projected-recession-probability/
0x4f447A58273dFb...
8mo ago
Bank of America CEO says research team ‘does not have any recession predicted anymore’ https://thehill.com/business/4822935-bank-of-america-ceo-says-research-team-does-not-have-any-recession-predicted-anymore/
Hamster
8mo ago
It is already here, the definition was met on 2023-2024
goatconnoisseur
8mo ago
I still think chances of a recession are unlikely but 13% seems low. https://www.livemint.com/economy/a-recession-in-america-by-2024-looks-likely-11723383115390.html
MichaelFowlie
8mo ago
Goldman Sachs increased their estimated probability from 15% to 25% https://www.cbsnews.com/news/economy-sahm-rule-is-the-us-at-risk-for-recession/
RadLilDude
8mo ago
Really good way to hedge your stock picks
MichaelFowlie
8mo ago
I would prefer a longer term contract (e.g. recession anytime between now and end of 2025?) for hedging but good point!
Outcome: No