Polymarket traders price Tesla (TSLA) share close for the week of March 30, 2026, with implied probabilities tightly clustered in the $365-$385 range, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid EV pricing pressures and anticipation of Q1 vehicle delivery data. Shares formed a pivot low on March 30 around $355 before surging over 4.6% to $371.75 on elevated volume of 75 million shares, driven by Elon Musk's Japan infrastructure investment announcement and optimism over potential delivery beats versus slashed consensus of ~345,000 units. This contested positioning—top bins at 17.4% and dual 16.5% challengers—highlights swing factors like competitive margin erosion from rivals and macro risk appetite, with Q1 deliveries report imminent as the key near-term catalyst ahead of April earnings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$370-$375 16%
$375-$380 15.9%
$385-$390 12.0%
$365-$370 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<$350
3%
$350-$355
3%
$355-$360
6%
$360-$365
10%
$365-$370
19%
$370-$375
16%
$375-$380
16%
$380-$385
17%
$385-$390
12%
$390-$395
9%
>$395
5%
$370-$375 16%
$375-$380 15.9%
$385-$390 12.0%
$365-$370 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<$350
$211 Vol.
3%
$350-$355
$959 Vol.
3%
$355-$360
$328 Vol.
6%
$360-$365
$794 Vol.
10%
$365-$370
$1,343 Vol.
19%
$370-$375
$581 Vol.
16%
$375-$380
$5 Vol.
16%
$380-$385
$10 Vol.
17%
$385-$390
$5 Vol.
12%
$390-$395
$5 Vol.
9%
>$395
$5 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price Tesla (TSLA) share close for the week of March 30, 2026, with implied probabilities tightly clustered in the $365-$385 range, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid EV pricing pressures and anticipation of Q1 vehicle delivery data. Shares formed a pivot low on March 30 around $355 before surging over 4.6% to $371.75 on elevated volume of 75 million shares, driven by Elon Musk's Japan infrastructure investment announcement and optimism over potential delivery beats versus slashed consensus of ~345,000 units. This contested positioning—top bins at 17.4% and dual 16.5% challengers—highlights swing factors like competitive margin erosion from rivals and macro risk appetite, with Q1 deliveries report imminent as the key near-term catalyst ahead of April earnings.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$4,241End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price Tesla (TSLA) share close for the week of March 30, 2026, with implied probabilities tightly clustered in the $365-$385 range, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid EV pricing pressures and anticipation of Q1 vehicle delivery data. Shares formed a pivot low on March 30 around $355 before surging over 4.6% to $371.75 on elevated volume of 75 million shares, driven by Elon Musk's Japan infrastructure investment announcement and optimism over potential delivery beats versus slashed consensus of ~345,000 units. This contested positioning—top bins at 17.4% and dual 16.5% challengers—highlights swing factors like competitive margin erosion from rivals and macro risk appetite, with Q1 deliveries report imminent as the key near-term catalyst ahead of April earnings.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$4,241End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price Tesla (TSLA) share close for the week of March 30, 2026, with implied probabilities tightly clustered in the $365-$385 range, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid EV pricing pressures and anticipation of Q1 vehicle delivery data. Shares formed a pivot low on March 30 around $355 before surging over 4.6% to $371.75 on elevated volume of 75 million shares, driven by Elon Musk's Japan infrastructure investment announcement and optimism over potential delivery beats versus slashed consensus of ~345,000 units. This contested positioning—top bins at 17.4% and dual 16.5% challengers—highlights swing factors like competitive margin erosion from rivals and macro risk appetite, with Q1 deliveries report imminent as the key near-term catalyst ahead of April earnings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions