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Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Market icon

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Elon Musk 90%

Jensen Huang 2.4%

Jeff Bezos 1.5%

Mark Zuckerberg 1.4%

Polymarket

$1,456,176 Vol.

Elon Musk 90%

Jensen Huang 2.4%

Jeff Bezos 1.5%

Mark Zuckerberg 1.4%

Polymarket

$1,456,176 Vol.

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Elon Musk

$109,708 Vol.

90%

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Jensen Huang

$118,014 Vol.

2%

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Jeff Bezos

$297,530 Vol.

2%

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Mark Zuckerberg

$116,117 Vol.

1%

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Larry Ellison

$43,229 Vol.

1%

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Warren Buffett

$80,447 Vol.

1%

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Bernard Arnault

$261,047 Vol.

1%

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Larry Page

$116,880 Vol.

1%

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Steve Ballmer

$257,141 Vol.

1%

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Sergey Brin

$56,065 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Elon Musk an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability of remaining the world's richest person by December 31, 2026, driven by his commanding current net worth lead—estimated at around $752 billion as of April 1, per Forbes' real-time rankings—far ahead of challengers like Larry Page ($258 billion) and Jeff Bezos ($244 billion). This positioning stems from recent surges in Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI valuations, despite a $22 billion dip last month amid broader market turmoil tied to geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang trails at 2.4% on AI chip momentum, but faces steep barriers to close the gap in eight months. Key catalysts ahead include Q2 earnings reports and potential SpaceX IPO developments, though Musk's diversified empire and historical growth trajectories solidify trader confidence in his frontrunner status.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Volume
$1,456,176
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Elon Musk an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability of remaining the world's richest person by December 31, 2026, driven by his commanding current net worth lead—estimated at around $752 billion as of April 1, per Forbes' real-time rankings—far ahead of challengers like Larry Page ($258 billion) and Jeff Bezos ($244 billion). This positioning stems from recent surges in Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI valuations, despite a $22 billion dip last month amid broader market turmoil tied to geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang trails at 2.4% on AI chip momentum, but faces steep barriers to close the gap in eight months. Key catalysts ahead include Q2 earnings reports and potential SpaceX IPO developments, though Musk's diversified empire and historical growth trajectories solidify trader confidence in his frontrunner status.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Volume
$1,456,176
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Related

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Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Richest person on December 31, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elon Musk" at 90%, followed by "Jensen Huang" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" has generated $1.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Richest person on December 31, 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" is "Elon Musk" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jensen Huang" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.