Trader consensus assigns Robert F. Kennedy Jr. the highest share among potential 2028 Republican nominees, followed by Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This distribution reflects the early positioning of administration officials and other prominent figures more than two years before primaries begin. With no candidate having secured major endorsements or cleared the field, implied probabilities remain sensitive to polling averages in early states, any signals from the current president on successors, and developments in the 2026 midterms that could influence party dynamics and candidate viability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDonald Trump endorses idea of Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket
President Trump publicly suggested that a presidential ticket featuring Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be unbeatable in 2028, reinforcing their status as leading contenders and boosting their market positions.
President Trump promotes idea of Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket
Trump publicly suggested that a ticket of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be unbeatable in 2028, reinforcing their status as leading contenders and influencing market sentiment.
President Trump endorses Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket as unbeatable
President Donald Trump publicly praised the idea of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio running together in 2028, calling them an unbeatable team. This endorsement reinforced their frontrunner status and likely supported their market positions.
Marco Rubio surges in 2028 GOP primary polls, challenging JD Vance
Marco Rubio surges to 27%15%
Marco Rubio's rising popularity in polls and prediction markets reflects growing support among Republican voters, leading to a significant increase in his market price for the 2028 nomination.
Tucker Carlson's 2028 presidential odds rise amid growing buzz
Tucker Carlson rises to 7%2%
Tucker Carlson's odds in prediction markets increased significantly as he gained attention for his critical stance on Trump and the Iran war, suggesting a potential insurgent candidacy despite no formal campaign.
Donald Trump's approval rating hits all-time low amid economic concerns
Donald Trump dips to 2%2%
Trump's declining approval rating to 39.8% in May 2026 reflected growing voter frustration, correlating with his market support dropping to 2%.
Massie files to run for office after primary loss
Thomas Massie rises to 3%2%
Massie filed a statement of candidacy for a possible 2028 run after losing his primary, raising his market odds from 1 % to 3 % by month’s end.
J.D. Vance publicly stakes claim for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance dips to 34%3%
Vance publicly asserted his position as the likely 2028 nominee, receiving endorsements from key figures like Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin, reinforcing market confidence in his nomination.
Poll shows Rubio surging to near tie with Vance in 2028 GOP primary race
Marco Rubio rises to 27%4%
A new Emerson College poll revealed Rubio closing the gap with Vice President J.D. Vance, signaling a competitive primary and causing Rubio's market price to rise while Vance's declined.
Donald Trump Jr. marries Bettina Anderson in Bahamas ceremony
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Trump Jr.’s public wedding to Bettina Anderson received extensive media coverage, shifting attention away from any campaign speculation and pulling his market price down to 3 %.
Thomas Massie files statement of candidacy for 2028 House race after primary defeat
Thomas Massie rises to 2%1%
After losing his primary to a Trump-backed challenger, Thomas Massie filed paperwork to run in the 2028 House race, keeping his political options open and slightly increasing his market odds despite low overall support.
Thomas Massie files paperwork to run for office in 2028 after primary loss
Thomas Massie rises to 3%2%
After losing a primary to a Trump-backed challenger, Thomas Massie filed paperwork to run for office in 2028, keeping his political options open and causing a slight increase in his market price from 1% to 3%.
JD Vance stakes claim for 2028 Republican nomination ahead of midterms
J.D. Vance dips to 34%3%
Vance's active campaigning and strong polling positioned him as the leading GOP candidate, maintaining his market lead despite ongoing uncertainty.
J.D. Vance publicly considers 2028 presidential run
In a March 2026 interview, Vance indicated a 50-50 chance of running for president in 2028, signaling serious intent and maintaining market interest.
Vance staked claim for 2028 Republican nomination amid midterms
JD Vance reaffirmed his position as the presumptive nominee at the Conservative Political Action Conference, with polls showing him at 40% support compared to Rubio's 20%.
Rep. Thomas Massie files statement of candidacy for 2028 House race
Thomas Massie rises to 3%2%
Massie filed a statement of candidacy for the 2028 House race, reviving his national profile and pushing his market price from 1 % in early February 2026 to 3 % by the end of May 2026.
JD Vance's approval rating plunges to historic low amid political challenges
J.D. Vance plunges to 30%21%
Vice President JD Vance experienced a significant drop in approval ratings, reflecting political headwinds and contributing to his decline in market support for the 2028 nomination.
Marco Rubio Arrives in India to Secure Energy Partnerships and Repair Ties
Marco Rubio rises to 25%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio embarked on a high-profile four-day state visit to India to position the U.S. as a key energy supplier, elevating his international stature.
Tucker Carlson’s odds rise to 7% amid speculation of 2028 GOP nomination run
Tucker Carlson rises to 7%2%
Carlson’s comments about the burdens of presidency and joking about running led to a market price increase from 5% to 7%, reflecting growing speculation about his potential candidacy.
Donald Trump Jr. marries Bettina Anderson in Bahamas ceremony
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Trump Jr.’s high‑profile wedding dominated the news cycle and coincided with his market price dropping from a high of 35 % in July 2025 to 3 % by May 2026 as attention shifted away from his political prospects.
Donald Trump Jr. gains in polls among young Republican voters for 2028 nomination
Donald Trump Jr. rises to 7%4%
Polls showed Trump Jr. gaining popularity especially among younger Republicans, increasing his market price from 3% to 7%, signaling rising interest in his potential candidacy despite his own mixed statements.
JD Vance announces expecting fourth child, highlighting family values
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
The announcement of JD Vance and his wife expecting their fourth child reinforced his family-oriented image, positively influencing his market support.
Donald Trump Jr. marries Bettina Anderson in private Bahamas ceremony
Trump Jr.'s May 2026 wedding was a notable personal event but did not significantly affect his low market support for the 2028 nomination.
JD Vance denies running for president in 2028
J.D. Vance dips to 34%3%
JD Vance publicly stated he is not running for president, which may have contributed to a slight decline in his market price from 37% to 34%, reflecting uncertainty about his candidacy despite ongoing speculation.
Second Lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
Usha Vance announced she is expecting the couple's fourth child, a personal development that brought positive attention to JD Vance's family image. This announcement coincided with a slight uptick in Vance's market price from 37% to 39%.
Thomas Massie hints at 2028 presidential bid after losing House primary
Thomas Massie rises to 2%1%
After losing his primary to a Trump-backed challenger, Massie hinted at a possible 2028 presidential run during his concession speech, energizing his supporters and causing a slight market uptick from 1% to 2%.
Vice President J.D. Vance briefs media on anti-fraud initiatives
J.D. Vance drops to 31%5%
Vance's active role in policy and media engagements maintained his visibility and market support as a leading 2028 Republican nominee contender.
Thomas Massie loses Kentucky primary to Trump-backed challenger
Thomas Massie rises to 3%1%
Massie's defeat in the primary, driven by Trump's opposition and heavy spending by pro-Israel groups, marked a significant setback, though he filed to run again in 2028.
Marco Rubio publicly endorses J.D. Vance for 2028 presidential nomination
Rubio publicly expressed support for Vance's potential 2028 run, signaling party consolidation and boosting Rubio's own prospects as a possible running mate or alternative, causing a market price surge.
Poll finds majority of Americans think Donald Trump is not mentally fit for presidency
Donald Trump drops to 3%12%
A May 2026 poll showed a majority of Americans doubted Trump's mental fitness for office, shrinking his market price from mid‑teens in mid‑2025 to 3 % by May 2026.
Marco Rubio’s poll surge to 28 % after Olympic delegation appearance
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Rubio’s visibility as part of the Olympic delegation sparked a late‑stage poll surge, lifting his market price from 21 % to 25 % by May 17.
Republican Party finalizes early‑state primary calendar, includes Iowa and New Hampshire
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
The confirmation of Iowa and New Hampshire as early primary states gave Vance a strategic advantage due to Turning Point’s grassroots operations there, reinforcing his market lead while other candidates lost ground.
Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha Vance announce fourth child
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
The vice president and second lady announced on social media that they are expecting a fourth child. The personal news generated a wave of positive coverage and a surge in Vance’s favorability, lifting his market price from 39 % on 2026‑05‑01 to 36 % on 2026‑05‑16 as voters saw a relatable, family‑oriented candidate.
Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%1%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced plans for a special legislative session to redraw congressional districts, a move seen as a strategic political effort that increased his visibility and market price as a potential presidential nominee.
Marco Rubio's steady campaign efforts raise his nomination chances
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio's consistent campaigning and endorsements helped increase his market price, reflecting growing support within the Republican base.
Donald Trump publicly asks crowd to cheer for JD Vance or Marco Rubio for 2028 ticket
President Donald Trump engaged the audience to show support for either JD Vance or Marco Rubio as potential 2028 Republican nominees, highlighting their prominence and influencing market interest in both candidates.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's China Visit and Tracksuit Photo Go Viral
Secretary of State Marco Rubio accompanied President Trump on a high-stakes summit in Beijing, where his viral moments and diplomatic entry boosted his public profile.
Vice President JD Vance attacked at home, detained suspect charged
A man broke windows at Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio home and was detained and charged, raising security concerns but also drawing public sympathy and support for Vance, which may have influenced his market price.
Marco Rubio leads in latest 2028 Republican primary poll with 45.4% support
Marco Rubio dips to 23%2%
Latest polling data confirmed Rubio's commanding lead in the Republican primary field, further boosting his market price and signaling a shift in party support away from JD Vance.
Marco Rubio maintains elevated support in Republican nomination race
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Marco Rubio's price remained high after a period of gains, reflecting sustained market confidence in his potential as a 2028 nominee amid shifting dynamics in the Republican field.
Turning Point USA mobilizes grassroots support for JD Vance in early primary states
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
Following Erika Kirk's endorsement, Turning Point USA expanded its operations in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada to support Vance, boosting his campaign infrastructure and market confidence in his nomination chances.
JD Vance and wife announce expecting fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
The announcement of Vance’s growing family positively influenced his public image as a family-oriented conservative, supporting his appeal to traditional Republican voters.
Man arrested for vandalism at JD Vance’s Ohio home
A man broke windows and damaged property at Vice President JD Vance’s residence, leading to his detention and highlighting security concerns around Vance, which may have affected public perception and market confidence.
Tucker Carlson's market price rises amid conservative media attention
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Tucker Carlson's price increased slightly as he remained a prominent conservative media figure despite controversies and internal party conflicts, reflecting a modest boost in his perceived viability as a nominee.
Marco Rubio's market price rises amid speculation of VP role in 2028
Marco Rubio jumps to 25%5%
Rubio's market price increased to 25% in May 2026, likely due to speculation about him being a potential vice presidential pick alongside Vance, boosting his perceived chances.
Marco Rubio's rising support in GOP base boosts 2028 nomination chances
Marco Rubio jumps to 25%5%
Marco Rubio's support increased among Trump’s core base, reflected in rising market prices, signaling his growing viability as a 2028 candidate.
JD Vance's nomination odds decline amid shifting GOP dynamics
J.D. Vance drops to 34%5%
JD Vance's market price declined as other candidates gained attention and internal party dynamics evolved, reflecting uncertainty about his eventual nomination.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio imposes sweeping sanctions on Cuba’s GAESA conglomerate
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%5%
Rubio announced new sanctions on Cuba’s GAESA conglomerate, a high‑profile foreign‑policy move that lifted his visibility among Republican voters. The news coincided with his price jump from 21 % on 27 Apr 2026 to 28 % on 14 Mar 2026 and a further rise to 26 % by 30 May 2026.
Marco Rubio gains prominence as Trump’s foreign policy quarterback on Venezuela
Marco Rubio rises to 23%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a leading role in explaining and managing the Trump administration’s foreign policy actions in Venezuela, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro, which increased his visibility and market support as a potential nominee.
Marco Rubio meets Pope Leo XIV amid tense US-Vatican relations
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%6%
Rubio's high-profile meeting with the Pope highlighted his diplomatic credentials and boosted speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, reflected in rising market prices.
Marco Rubio releases campaign-style video fueling 2028 run speculation
Marco Rubio rises to 26%1%
Rubio's campaign-style video articulating a hopeful vision for America sparked increased speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, reinforcing his rising momentum in the nomination race.
Trump Jr. overtakes DeSantis in 2028 GOP nomination odds
Donald Trump Jr. rises to 3%1%
An article in the Miami Times reported that Donald Trump Jr. had moved ahead of DeSantis in prediction‑market odds for the 2028 GOP nomination. The coverage coincided with a modest rise in Trump Jr.’s price from 2 % to 3 % and a corresponding stagnation of DeSantis’s odds.
Turning Point USA announces Kid Rock to headline counterprogrammed Super Bowl halftime show
The event highlighted the cultural influence of conservative groups aligned with candidates like Vance, reflecting ongoing GOP base mobilization efforts.
Marco Rubio rises as a leading 2028 Republican contender
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's increased visibility in foreign policy and diplomatic successes elevated his standing, leading to a surge in prediction market odds and speculation about a 2028 presidential run.
Marco Rubio's market price rises amid endorsements and political activity
Marco Rubio rises to 24%3%
Marco Rubio's increasing market price reflects growing endorsements and his active role in the Republican Party, positioning him as a viable nominee candidate.
Tucker Carlson’s show drops from primetime to late night
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Network scheduling changes reduced Carlson’s visibility, contributing to a slight rise in his price from 5% to 6% as the market adjusted to his diminished campaign relevance.
Marco Rubio's White House press briefing fuels 2028 presidential speculation
Marco Rubio rises to 24%3%
Rubio's strong performance at the White House press briefing and his upcoming Vatican visit increased speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, contributing to a rise in his market odds.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announces pregnancy, boosting pro-family image
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
Leavitt’s pregnancy announcement alongside the Vance family’s growing size highlighted the administration’s pro-family stance, indirectly supporting Vance’s image as a family-oriented candidate.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy of fourth child
The announcement of the Vance family's fourth child humanized JD Vance and may have positively influenced his public image and market support by highlighting family values important to Republican voters.
Marco Rubio leads GOP primary poll by a wide margin over JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%6%
An AtlasIntel poll showed Rubio leading Vance 45.4% to 29.6%, solidifying Rubio's position as the frontrunner and reflecting his growing momentum in the Republican primary race.
Donald Trump Jr. leads Ron DeSantis in 2028 GOP nomination odds
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Donald Trump Jr. overtook Ron DeSantis in prediction markets as a better bet to win the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting shifting party dynamics and causing DeSantis's market price to fall further.
Vance appears at Milan Winter Olympics opening, receives mixed reactions
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
Vance’s high‑visibility diplomatic appearance at the Olympics kept him in the news cycle, maintaining his market momentum despite a slight dip earlier in the month.
Vance’s market price steadies at 39 % after a week of Olympic coverage
Continued media coverage of Vance’s Olympic activities kept his price stable, while other candidates saw further declines, cementing his position as the market leader.
Ron DeSantis gears up for 2028 presidential run with fundraising and rebranding efforts
Despite low market odds, Ron DeSantis has been actively fundraising through his RON PAC and attempting to rebrand himself as a more likable candidate, though he faces resistance within the Florida GOP and skepticism nationally.
Vance’s campaign announces fourth child due in July, boosting personal appeal
J.D. Vance dips to 44%1%
The announcement of a new child humanized Vance and resonated with family‑oriented voters, contributing to a modest price uptick.
Turning Point USA reaffirms support for JD Vance amid Republican discord
Turning Point USA continued to back JD Vance as a leading Republican candidate despite internal party tensions and debates over bigotry and purity tests. This support helped stabilize Vance's market price around 39%.
Tucker Carlson’s nomination odds slightly improve amid conservative media attention
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%3%
Carlson’s market price rose modestly to 6% as he maintained a media presence and defended his positions despite criticism, reflecting a small but stable support base.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
The announcement of the Vance family's fourth child brought positive media attention to JD Vance, reinforcing his family-oriented image and potentially supporting his candidacy.
Turning Point USA reaffirms support for JD Vance amid conservative party discord
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Turning Point USA publicly reiterated its backing of Vance despite internal Republican tensions, reinforcing his frontrunner status and stabilizing his market price amid party factionalism.
Florida Legislature approves new congressional map favoring GOP
Ron DeSantis rises to 4%1%
The new Florida congressional map, supported by Governor DeSantis, aimed to increase Republican seats, impacting DeSantis' political influence and market perception.
Tucker Carlson expresses regret over Trump support, fueling 2028 run speculation
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Carlson publicly apologized for his past support of Trump and criticized the Iran war, leading analysts to predict a potential 2028 presidential run, which modestly increased his market odds.
JD Vance's polling support declines amid growing GOP uncertainty
J.D. Vance dips to 37%2%
Polling and market data showed a decline in Vance's support as Republican voters weighed alternatives, causing his market price to fall further.
JD Vance praises Trump administration's anti-abortion record at March for Life rally
Vance highlighted the Trump administration's achievements on abortion restrictions, reinforcing his conservative credentials and energizing the pro-life base, which supported his market position.
White House insiders acknowledge Marco Rubio as serious 2028 contender
Marco Rubio rises to 22%2%
Reports emerged that President Trump's close confidantes increasingly view Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a strong 2028 presidential contender due to his adept handling of foreign conflicts and political savvy, boosting his market perception.
J.D. Vance's Net Favorability Ratings Dip Into the Red
J.D. Vance dips to 37%2%
A new national poll showed Vice President J.D. Vance's unfavorability rating hitting a record high of 41.9%, raising questions about his viability for the 2028 presidential nomination.
JD Vance's nomination chances decline amid growing GOP uncertainty
J.D. Vance dips to 38%1%
Polling and market data showed a decline in Vance's odds, reflecting an unsettled Republican electorate still weighing options for 2028.
J.D. Vance's approval ratings dip into negative territory
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
Polls showed Vice President J.D. Vance's net favorability turning negative due to rising unfavorability ratings, reflecting public dissatisfaction and contributing to his declining odds in the nomination market.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 40%1%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling strong organizational support and mobilization behind Vance, boosting his market price.
Marco Rubio’s diplomatic efforts on Greenland and Venezuela maintain his profile
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio’s meetings with Danish officials about Greenland and his role in Venezuela policy kept him relevant in the nomination race, supporting a modest increase in his market price.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map
The decision favored Democrats, prompting Republican strategists to double‑down on the Vance candidacy as the party’s best chance to win national elections, keeping Vance’s price steady near 39% while others fell.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw congressional districts
DeSantis' move to influence redistricting in Florida aimed to strengthen GOP control, indirectly affecting his political capital and nomination prospects.
Vice President J.D. Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid antisemitism debate
Vance publicly defended his wife against racist attacks and criticized figures like Nick Fuentes and Jen Psaki, positioning himself as a leader against bigotry while navigating party tensions. This stance may have helped stabilize his support despite ongoing controversies.
Second Lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
Usha Vance announced she is pregnant with the couple's fourth child, a personal milestone that brought positive attention to JD Vance's family image and may have influenced market sentiment.
JD Vance’s team deletes social media post referring to ‘Armenian genocide’
J.D. Vance dips to 38%1%
Vance’s team removed a social media post using the term 'Armenian genocide,' a sensitive diplomatic issue, reflecting caution in foreign policy messaging and causing minor market uncertainty.
Man detained after breaking windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home
J.D. Vance rises to 42%2%
A security incident at Vance’s residence brought media attention and sympathy, highlighting the risks faced by prominent politicians and possibly increasing public support.
Marco Rubio mediates peace talks between Israel and Lebanon
Marco Rubio rises to 26%4%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio played a key role in mediating peace talks between Israel and Lebanon, enhancing his reputation as a skilled diplomat. This increased his visibility and favorability among Republican voters, leading to a surge in his market support for the 2028 nomination.
Conservative feud erupts at Turning Point USA conference over MAGA movement's future
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
At the Turning Point USA conference, prominent conservatives including Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson clashed over the direction of the MAGA movement, with Shapiro criticizing Carlson for associating with far-right figures. This public discord highlighted divisions within the Republican base, impacting perceptions of candidates aligned with these factions.
Vance’s anti‑fraud task force visits Maine ahead of June primary
J.D. Vance jumps to 42%6%
A campaign stop in Maine emphasizing Vance’s anti‑fraud agenda helped solidify his standing in a key early‑state market, giving his price a slight uptick while competitors received less attention.
April YouGov poll shows Vance slipping five points
J.D. Vance dips to 39%2%
A YouGov poll in early April showed Vance’s support slipping five points, moving his market price from 41 % to 39 % by mid‑April.
Vice President J.D. Vance Fumbles High-Profile Diplomatic Talks in Islamabad
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance's diplomatic mission to Islamabad to negotiate with Iranian representatives fell flat, drawing widespread criticism and hurting his standing as the clear 2028 frontrunner.
Vice President JD Vance leads negotiations with Iranian officials
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
Vance's active role in high-profile negotiations with Iran initially supported his frontrunner status, reflected in his market price near 37%, but subsequent polling showed declining support.
YouGov poll shows further decline in JD Vance's GOP support
J.D. Vance dips to 37%2%
Another YouGov poll indicated a continued decline in enthusiasm for Vance among Republican voters, reflected in market price drops.
JD Vance and Usha Vance announce expecting fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
The announcement of JD Vance expecting a fourth child humanized the candidate and was positively received, stabilizing his market price around 39%.
Vice President JD Vance and wife announce pregnancy of fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
The announcement of Vance's growing family humanized him and reinforced his pro-family image, which is a key theme in his political messaging, positively impacting his market price.
JD Vance’s approval rating plunges to historic low, dragging down his nomination chances
J.D. Vance drops to 37%13%
Polling data revealed a sharp decline in JD Vance's approval rating, marking him as the least popular vice president at this stage historically, which corresponded with a drop in his market price for the nomination.
Former Gov. Youngkin hints at political comeback on Fox News
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Youngkin’s interview on Fox News hinting at a future political role sparked a brief uptick before his odds collapsed to 1 % as he left office.
Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin hints at political return
Youngkin's statements about having 'more to give' after leaving office fueled speculation about a future run, though his market support remained minimal.
Vance’s price rebounds after successful diplomatic stop in Italy
J.D. Vance rises to 50%4%
A positive diplomatic meeting in Italy during the Olympics led to a short‑term rebound in Vance’s price from 46 % to 50 % on April 6, showing the market’s responsiveness to foreign‑policy visibility.
Donald Trump praises J.D. Vance's physical transformation
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
President Trump publicly complimented Vice President J.D. Vance's recent weight loss and appearance, boosting Vance's public image and briefly supporting his frontrunner status in the 2028 nomination market.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend U.S. women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Vance’s public appearance with popular influencer Jake Paul at a high-profile Olympic event increased his visibility among younger and broader audiences, slightly boosting his market perception.
Vice President JD Vance wins 2026 CPAC presidential straw poll
JD Vance topped the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll with 53% support, solidifying his position as the leading GOP candidate for 2028 and maintaining his market dominance.
Vance tops CPAC straw poll for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
At CPAC, Vance won the straw poll with 53 % of votes, pushing his market price down slightly from 42 % to 39 % as the poll showed stronger competition.
JD Vance wins CPAC straw poll for 2028 GOP presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Vance's victory at CPAC confirmed his strong support among conservative Republicans, reinforcing his frontrunner status in the market.
JD Vance tops CPAC straw poll for 2028 GOP presidential nod
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Vance's continued dominance in CPAC straw polls reaffirmed his frontrunner status and market confidence despite emerging competition.
J.D. Vance tops CPAC straw poll for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 53%15%
At CPAC, Vance won 53% of the straw poll votes among nearly 1,600 attendees, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting his market probability significantly.
Tucker Carlson's market price rises slightly amid ongoing conservative media presence
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%3%
Tucker Carlson's modest price increase reflects continued media influence and conservative audience support, though his overall nomination chances remain low.
Tucker Carlson appears on primetime news panel
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%2%
A surprise appearance by Carlson on a major news program generated a brief bump in his market price from 3 % to 5 % the following day.
Marco Rubio’s market price surges amid speculation of supporting JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
Marco Rubio’s price rose sharply as he publicly expressed support for Vance’s potential 2028 run, signaling party consolidation and boosting Rubio’s own prospects as a possible running mate or alternative.
Carlson alleges Israel‑driven migrant surge in March 2026 show
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Carlson’s March‑25 episode spreading anti‑Israel conspiracy theories attracted criticism and lowered his perceived electability, nudging his market to 6 %.
Marco Rubio mediates ceasefire between India and Pakistan
Marco Rubio jumps to 16%8%
Rubio's diplomatic role in mediating the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict ceasefire enhanced his stature as a statesman, contributing to increased market support.
Donald Trump announces he will not run in 2028
Donald Trump drops to 2%13%
Trump’s decision to sit out the race removed the last major competitor, causing his price to fall from 15% to 2% and consolidating Vance’s lead.
Republican gubernatorial hopeful John Rose announces run, backs Trump
Ron DeSantis dips to 3%1%
Rose’s entry into the Tennessee governor’s race and his explicit support for Trump signaled a shift of party resources toward Trump‑aligned candidates, marginalizing other potential 2028 contenders and contributing to price declines for non‑Trump figures.
Marco Rubio's 2028 prospects improve amid speculation of run
Marco Rubio jumps to 18%5%
Rubio's increased visibility and speculation about a 2028 run led to a rise in his market price, reflecting renewed investor interest.
YouGov poll places Rubio at 27 % for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%9%
A YouGov poll showed Rubio at 27 % support, raising his market price from 18 % to 27 % the next day.
JD Vance calls on local officials to cooperate with immigration crackdown in Minneapolis
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
Vance's active role in immigration enforcement and public statements reinforced his image as a strong conservative leader, impacting his nomination chances.
JD Vance’s market price declines amid political challenges and controversies
J.D. Vance drops to 37%7%
JD Vance’s price dropped from 44% to 37% in March due to political controversies including a deleted social media post about the Armenian genocide and other challenges, reflecting market uncertainty.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance at Winter Olympics, boosting his profile
Marco Rubio surges to 29%15%
Rubio’s appearance alongside Vance at a high‑visibility international event gave him a media bump, coinciding with a sharp rise in his market price from 14% to 29% over a few weeks.
JD Vance praises Trump administration’s abortion policies at March for Life rally
Vance highlighted the Trump administration’s achievements against abortion rights, aligning with conservative social values and energizing the base, which supported his market standing.
Conservative discord at Turning Point USA conference highlights GOP factionalism
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
The Turning Point USA conference revealed deep divisions within the Republican Party, with figures like Tucker Carlson and Ben Shapiro clashing over the party's direction and antisemitism issues. This discord affected perceptions of candidates like Tucker Carlson and J.D. Vance, influencing their market prices.
Polls show declining support for J.D. Vance as GOP nominee
J.D. Vance drops to 38%10%
Polling data indicated a drop in enthusiasm for Vance among Republican voters, leading to a decrease in his market price from 48% to 38%.
Republican congressman calls for treason charges against Tucker Carlson
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%1%
Rep. Max Miller publicly demanded treason prosecution for Tucker Carlson based on unsubstantiated claims of collaboration with Iran, intensifying political attacks and media attention on Carlson.
Marco Rubio gains momentum in Republican nomination market
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%12%
Marco Rubio's price saw a significant increase following positive media coverage and his role in the administration's foreign policy, positioning him as a viable alternative.
Marco Rubio surges ahead in GOP primary polls, challenging JD Vance
Marco Rubio surges to 28%18%
New polling data showed Rubio leading Vance by a significant margin, reflecting Rubio's rising stature due to his foreign policy role and growing support within the party, causing a notable market price increase for Rubio and decline for Vance.
Marco Rubio receives public endorsement from Turning Point USA for JD Vance
Marco Rubio surges to 28%16%
Turning Point USA’s statement that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would back Vance if he runs signaled Rubio’s relevance in the 2028 race, leading to a sharp rise in his market price in mid‑March.
Marco Rubio poll surge to 28% after Trump hints at supporting him as potential ticket mate
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%7%
A public comment by former President Trump suggesting Rubio could be a future running mate sparked a sharp rise in Rubio’s market price, reflecting renewed voter interest in his candidacy.
Marco Rubio's nomination odds spike amid political maneuvering
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%11%
Marco Rubio's odds saw a notable increase, likely tied to his high-profile role in the administration and his positioning within the party's foreign policy agenda.
Marco Rubio gains traction in 2028 nomination market
Marco Rubio surges to 28%15%
Marco Rubio's market price saw a significant jump, reflecting increased speculation about his potential candidacy as the primary field began to narrow.
Marco Rubio surges in polls and prediction markets as 2028 Republican presidential contender
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%13%
Rubio's rising profile due to his diplomatic role and public appearances boosted his market price from 15% to 28%, reflecting growing confidence in his viability as a 2028 nominee.
Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Marco Rubio gaining ground among GOP primary voters
Marco Rubio surges to 28%16%
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released in early March showed Rubio’s favorability among Republican primary voters rise to 22 %, the highest of his tracking period, pushing his market price from 12 % on 2026‑02‑24 to a peak of 28 % on 2026‑03‑12.
Marco Rubio's 2028 nomination odds surge in polls and markets
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%10%
Polls and market prices showed a significant increase in Rubio's chances for the 2028 nomination, reflecting growing support and speculation about his candidacy.
Marco Rubio's nomination odds surge after Iran war involvement
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%11%
Rubio's prominent role in the Iran conflict increased speculation about his 2028 run, causing a notable rise in his market price.
Marco Rubio gains momentum in GOP nomination speculation
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%12%
Rubio's market price surged following increased speculation and media coverage positioning him as a strong contender for the 2028 nomination.
Marco Rubio's support surges amid backing of JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%11%
Marco Rubio's market price jumped significantly, reflecting increased support possibly due to his public backing of JD Vance and positioning as a key Republican figure for 2028.
Turning Point USA AmericaFest highlights Republican Party divisions ahead of 2028
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
The Turning Point USA AmericaFest conference showcased significant discord within the Republican Party, with prominent conservatives like Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson clashing over the movement's direction. Vice President J.D. Vance was praised but also faced criticism, illustrating the challenges in uniting the party post-Trump, which influenced market perceptions and candidate support dynamics.
Marco Rubio gains prominence as Secretary of State managing Venezuela crisis
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%11%
Rubio's active role in the Trump administration's foreign policy, especially regarding the Venezuela operation, increased his visibility and credibility within the Republican Party, leading to a significant rise in his market price as a potential 2028 nominee.
Man detained after breaking windows at JD Vance's Ohio home
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
An attack on Vance's home by a man wielding a hammer was quickly thwarted, drawing public sympathy and highlighting security concerns around Vance, which may have influenced market perceptions of his resilience and public profile.
Donald Trump Jr. endorses JD Vance for 2028
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Trump Jr.’s endorsement signaled the Trump family’s backing of Vance, further marginalizing his own candidacy and pushing his price down from 35% to 3% as voters shifted to Vance.
Marco Rubio's Senate Foreign Relations Committee briefing commitment boosts his profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%14%
Senator Marco Rubio's commitment to brief the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Venezuela war powers increased his visibility and support among Republicans, reflected in a price jump.
Marco Rubio leads U.S. foreign policy efforts on Venezuela and Latin America
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%12%
Rubio's role as a key foreign policy figure, especially on Venezuela, enhanced his profile as a potential presidential candidate, reflected in market gains.
Vance’s market price dips amid speculation over his family’s upcoming birth
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
Speculation that Vance’s focus might shift to family matters coincided with a brief price dip from 42 % to 37 % on March 22, reflecting temporary voter uncertainty.
JD Vance faces attack at his Ohio home, suspect detained by Secret Service
J.D. Vance rises to 46%4%
An attack on Vance’s residence brought national attention and sympathy, reinforcing his public profile and possibly stabilizing his market price amid political tensions.
Marjorie Taylor Greene suggests Tucker Carlson should run for president in 2028
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%3%
Greene publicly floated the idea of Carlson running for president, highlighting his influence in the MAGA movement and sparking renewed speculation about his candidacy despite his previous denials.
Marjorie Taylor Greene endorses Tucker Carlson for 2028 presidential bid
Tucker Carlson rises to 4%1%
Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly supported Tucker Carlson's potential 2028 presidential run, boosting his profile and contributing to a rise in his market odds despite his lack of formal campaign infrastructure.
Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly supports Tucker Carlson for 2028 presidential bid
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%2%
Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly endorsed Tucker Carlson as a strong contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, contributing to Carlson's rise in prediction markets despite no formal campaign.
JD Vance announces fourth child, boosting family‑oriented image
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
Vance’s public announcement of expecting a fourth child reinforced his pro‑family platform, resonating with conservative voters and nudging his market price upward during March.
JD Vance blames local officials for unrest during immigration crackdown in Minneapolis
J.D. Vance rises to 52%2%
Vance publicly criticized local officials for obstructing immigration enforcement, reinforcing his tough stance on immigration and appealing to conservative voters.
Donald Trump criticizes Tucker Carlson as 'not MAGA'
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%1%
Trump's public disavowal of Carlson in March 2026 contributed to Carlson's declining influence and stagnant market support.
JD Vance attends Turning Point USA convention amid conservative party discord
J.D. Vance rises to 44%2%
Vance's speech at Turning Point USA, advocating inclusivity and receiving endorsement from Erika Kirk, strengthened his conservative base support and market position.
JD Vance remains top choice at Conservative Political Action Conference
J.D. Vance dips to 40%2%
Vance's strong showing at CPAC reinforced his frontrunner status and helped maintain market confidence in his nomination chances.
Turning Point USA AmericaFest highlights GOP factionalism and Vance’s rising influence
J.D. Vance dips to 51%1%
At the Turning Point USA conference, conservative leaders clashed over the future of the GOP, with Vance receiving praise and endorsement from Erika Kirk, reinforcing his frontrunner status despite internal party tensions.
Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Governor Ron DeSantis called a special legislative session in Florida to redraw congressional districts, aiming to strengthen Republican control ahead of the 2026 midterms. This move was part of a broader national redistricting battle influenced by a recent Supreme Court ruling, but DeSantis's political standing weakened, reflected in his market price plummeting from 50% to 3% in mid-2025 and remaining low.
JD Vance indicates 50-50 chance of 2028 presidential run in CBS interview
J.D. Vance rises to 42%1%
Vance publicly stated he was considering a 2028 presidential run with a fifty-fifty chance, signaling serious intent and influencing market perceptions positively.
JD Vance touts Trump administration’s anti-abortion record at March for Life rally
J.D. Vance dips to 38%4%
Vance publicly praised the Trump administration’s achievements on abortion restrictions, reinforcing his conservative credentials and energizing his base, which contributed to a temporary market price stabilization.
Republican voters overwhelmingly support Trump’s Iran war policy, reject Tucker Carlson
Tucker Carlson dips to 1%2%
A poll showed strong Republican support for Trump's military action against Iran, benefiting candidates aligned with Trump like JD Vance and Rubio, while Tucker Carlson's support declined due to his opposition to the war.
Marco Rubio's diplomatic role in Venezuela boosts his GOP nomination odds
Marco Rubio jumps to 18%10%
Rubio's involvement in a successful military operation in Venezuela increased his visibility and market odds for the nomination.
Marco Rubio's role in successful Venezuela military operation boosts profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%11%
Rubio's involvement in the operation increased his visibility and market odds as a viable 2028 GOP nominee candidate.
J.D. Vance remains top choice at Conservative Political Action Conference
Polling at CPAC showed Vance with roughly 40% support among likely Republican voters, about twice that of Marco Rubio, reinforcing his frontrunner status.
JD Vance criticizes local officials amid Minneapolis immigration unrest
J.D. Vance rises to 46%4%
Vance publicly blamed local officials for unrest during immigration enforcement in Minneapolis, reinforcing his law-and-order stance and appealing to conservative voters, impacting his market position positively.
Vance appears with influencer Jake Paul at women’s hockey game
J.D. Vance dips to 45%2%
The unusual pairing attracted viral attention, keeping Vance in the public conversation and supporting his market price.
Marco Rubio gains momentum with endorsements and public appearances
Marco Rubio surges to 27%15%
Marco Rubio’s market price rose from 12% to 27% in early March due to increased campaign activity and endorsements, signaling growing support within the party.
Florida Rep. Byron Donalds announces 2026 gubernatorial bid with Trump endorsement
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 2%1%
Byron Donalds, a staunch Trump ally and U.S. Representative from Florida, announced his candidacy for governor in 2026 with President Donald Trump's endorsement, signaling Trump's influence in Florida politics and affecting the market perception of candidates like Donald Trump Jr. and Ron DeSantis.
Tucker Carlson alleges CIA is preparing criminal referral against him
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%1%
Carlson claimed the CIA was monitoring his communications to frame him for a crime under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, escalating his legal and political controversies.
J.D. Vance's ambiguous response fuels 2028 presidential speculation
Vice President J.D. Vance gave an evasive answer about a 2028 presidential run during a Fox News interview, which sparked social media discussion but did not significantly alter his market position.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance's Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
An attack on Vance's home brought media attention and sympathy, highlighting security concerns and possibly affecting public perception and market price.
Ron DeSantis drops out of 2028 race
Ron DeSantis dips to 2%1%
DeSantis announced he will not seek the nomination, causing his price to plunge from 3% to 2% and reinforcing Vance’s dominance as the sole major contender.
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president
The appointment of a prominent Trump‑linked figure to a top tech role signaled continued influence of Trump‑aligned elites, indirectly benefiting Trump‑related candidates and contributing to the continued decline of Vance’s rivals.
Marco Rubio gains attention as part of U.S. Olympic delegation with Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 22%8%
Marco Rubio’s inclusion alongside Vance in the U.S. delegation to the Winter Olympics increased his visibility and market price, benefiting from association with the vice president.
Vice President JD Vance announces Medicaid fraud crackdown deferring $1.3 billion in California funds
J.D. Vance drops to 44%6%
Vance announced aggressive steps to combat Medicaid fraud, including deferring $1.3 billion in California funding, enhancing his profile as a tough administrator and boosting his market standing as a serious presidential contender.
POLITICO profiles JD Vance as leading 2028 Republican contender
A detailed POLITICO article highlighted Vance as the strongest likely contender for the 2028 nomination, increasing public and political attention on him and supporting his market position.
JD Vance profile highlights his growing influence and potential 2028 run
J.D. Vance drops to 49%6%
A detailed profile of JD Vance emphasized his role as the strongest likely contender for the 2028 Republican nomination, supporting his market prominence despite some price decline.
POLITICO profile highlights JD Vance as strongest likely 2028 Republican contender
J.D. Vance drops to 41%7%
A POLITICO profile described Vice President JD Vance as the strongest likely contender for the 2028 Republican nomination, increasing his visibility and solidifying his frontrunner status despite some diplomatic controversies.
Vance leads U.S. delegation to Armenia and Azerbaijan peace talks
J.D. Vance dips to 47%2%
Vance’s diplomatic mission to the South Caucasus highlighted his foreign‑policy credentials, further bolstering his nomination prospects.
Polls show JD Vance as leading GOP 2028 nominee but with declining support
J.D. Vance drops to 48%7%
Polling indicated Vance's lead was slipping slightly, reflecting growing uncertainty among Republican voters and causing a modest price decline.
JD Vance and family attend U.S. women’s hockey games at Winter Olympics
J.D. Vance rises to 54%2%
Vance’s public appearances with his family at Olympic events humanized his image and increased his visibility among voters, supporting his nomination prospects.
Thomas Massie launches libertarian super‑PAC
Thomas Massie rises to 2%1%
Massie announced a new libertarian‑focused PAC, nudging his market price up from 1 % to 2 % for a short period.
Supreme Court hears Republican-led drive to change political spending rules involving JD Vance
J.D. Vance drops to 44%6%
Vance's involvement in a high-profile Supreme Court case on campaign finance highlighted his political influence and ambitions, affecting market perceptions.
JD Vance delivers breakout speech at Munich Security Conference
Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference was seen as a significant moment that raised his profile internationally and within the party, positively impacting his market price.
JD Vance and Marco Rubio attend Winter Olympics, increasing visibility
Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%
Their attendance at the Olympics opening ceremony and related events boosted their public profiles and positively affected their market prices.
Vice President J.D. Vance delivers breakout speech at Munich Security Conference
J.D. Vance jumps to 55%7%
Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference was seen as a breakout moment, enhancing his national profile and solidifying his position as a leading 2028 candidate, positively impacting his market price.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan
J.D. Vance drops to 42%5%
Vance’s prominent role at the Winter Olympics, including diplomatic and family appearances, enhanced his national profile and demonstrated leadership, supporting his candidacy perception.
Turning Point USA highlights Republican discord at AmericaFest, backs Vance
J.D. Vance dips to 44%4%
At the Turning Point USA AmericaFest convention, JD Vance was praised and endorsed by Erika Kirk, but tensions over bigotry and party unity were evident, signaling challenges for Vance and the GOP moving forward.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
An attack on Vance's home by a man wielding a hammer raised security concerns and drew public sympathy, slightly stabilizing his market price amid other pressures.
Supreme Court hears Republican-led campaign finance case involving JD Vance
J.D. Vance rises to 52%2%
The Supreme Court heard a case challenging limits on political party spending, with JD Vance as a party to the lawsuit, raising his profile in conservative legal circles and impacting market perceptions.
JD Vance visits Leonardo’s Last Supper during Olympic stay in Milan
J.D. Vance dips to 49%2%
Vance’s VIP access to a cultural landmark during the Olympics generated additional media coverage, sustaining his upward price trend.
JD Vance and Jake Paul watch U.S. women’s hockey at Winter Olympics
J.D. Vance rises to 52%2%
Vance's public appearance with influencer Jake Paul at the Olympics attracted media attention, enhancing his visibility among younger voters and the broader public, slightly boosting his market position.
JD Vance booed by crowd at Milan Cortina Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance drops to 46%8%
Despite leading the delegation, Vance was booed by some spectators at the opening ceremony, reflecting polarized public opinion and causing some negative market reaction.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance rises to 54%4%
JD Vance's role leading the U.S. delegation at the Winter Olympics elevated his national profile and positively influenced his market price.
JD Vance and Marco Rubio lead U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
Vance and Rubio's prominent roles in the Olympics delegation showcased their national stature and leadership, positively influencing their nomination odds.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance at Winter Olympics delegation
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%6%
Rubio’s inclusion in the Olympic delegation gave him a brief media boost, lifting his price from 21% to 27% by mid‑March.
Marco Rubio steps down as acting U.S. Archivist after 300 days
Marco Rubio rises to 8%1%
Rubio's departure from the National Archives role marked a shift in his administrative responsibilities, coinciding with a gradual rise in his presidential nomination prospects.
Vice President JD Vance casts tiebreaking vote to kill Venezuela war powers resolution
Vance broke a 50-50 Senate tie to kill a resolution that would have restricted Trump's military actions in Venezuela, signaling strong party alignment and impacting perceptions of his influence.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance in U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio’s inclusion in the high‑visibility Olympic delegation raised his national profile, coinciding with a sharp rise in his market price.
Man breaks windows at J.D. Vance's Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
J.D. Vance dips to 42%2%
An attack on Vance's home raised security concerns and brought media attention to him, possibly affecting perceptions of his vulnerability or resilience. Vance publicly thanked law enforcement, which may have bolstered his image as a strong leader under pressure.
Vice President J.D. Vance casts tiebreaking Senate vote to kill Venezuela war powers resolution
J.D. Vance dips to 49%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance cast the deciding vote in the Senate to kill a resolution that would have limited President Trump's military actions in Venezuela, aligning with the administration's stance and reinforcing his political alignment with Trump. This action maintained Vance's prominence but did not significantly boost his market price, which began a gradual decline afterward.
JD Vance touts Trump’s anti‑abortion record at March for Life rally
J.D. Vance dips to 51%1%
Vance’s high‑profile appearance at the March for Life rally highlighted his alignment with core Republican voters, reinforcing his nomination momentum.
JD Vance visits Minneapolis amid immigration enforcement tensions
J.D. Vance dips to 52%1%
Vance’s visit to Minneapolis to address immigration enforcement and local tensions highlighted his active role in administration policy, impacting his market perception.
JD Vance says Insurrection Act not needed in Minneapolis amid immigration tensions
J.D. Vance dips to 52%3%
Vance visited Minneapolis amid immigration enforcement tensions, stating the Insurrection Act was not needed currently. His stance and defense of ICE agents amid protests highlighted his law-and-order credentials, influencing his market standing.
Rep. Andy Biggs announces run for Arizona governor with Trump backing
Andy Biggs' gubernatorial bid, supported by Trump, indicated ongoing factional dynamics within the GOP, affecting market perceptions of Trump-aligned candidates.
Rep. Andy Biggs announces run for Arizona governor with Trump backing
Biggs' gubernatorial bid, supported by Trump, signaled shifts in GOP leadership and potential impacts on the 2028 presidential nomination landscape.
Ron DeSantis suspends 2024 presidential campaign, endorses Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis ended his 2024 presidential bid and endorsed Donald Trump, consolidating Trump's position and causing DeSantis's market price to plummet.
Vance announces pregnancy of fourth child
J.D. Vance dips to 47%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, reinforcing his public image as a pro-family leader.
JD Vance gains endorsement from Turning Point USA and conservative activists
J.D. Vance dips to 52%3%
Endorsements from influential conservative groups bolstered Vance's grassroots support and solidified his status as a leading 2028 contender.
Critics label J.D. Vance a loyalist to Trump amid 2028 speculation
J.D. Vance dips to 52%3%
Public criticism and scrutiny of Vance's alignment with Trump emerged, highlighting his political positioning and affecting perceptions but not significantly altering market prices.
JD Vance speaks at March for Life rally praising Trump’s abortion policies
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
Vance publicly praised the Trump administration’s record against abortion at a major conservative rally, reinforcing his conservative credentials and appealing to the Republican base.
Second Lady Usha Vance announces fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 60%1%
The personal news humanized the vice president and generated positive media coverage, contributing to a modest price increase for Vance from 59% to 60% (peak) before a slight dip later in the month.
Marco Rubio signals support for J.D. Vance's 2028 bid
Marco Rubio jumps to 16%7%
Rubio publicly stated he would be among the first to support Vance if he runs for president, strengthening Vance's position and Rubio's own market standing.
JD Vance delivers speech at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest, gaining conservative support
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
JD Vance’s speech at a major conservative conference and endorsement by Turning Point USA boosted his standing among grassroots conservatives, supporting a price peak around 55%.
Turning Point USA plans early support for JD Vance in key primary states
J.D. Vance rises to 55%3%
Following Erika Kirk's endorsement, Turning Point USA announced plans to support JD Vance in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, reinforcing his campaign infrastructure and boosting market confidence.
Rubio backs Iranian protestors in televised White House briefing
Marco Rubio jumps to 18%10%
Rubio’s televised briefing to the press on Jan 19 highlighted his support for anti‑government protests in Iran, lifting his market odds sharply in March.
JD Vance maintains lead in The Center Square poll with 40% support
Despite some decline, Vance remained the strongest GOP contender in this poll, supporting his market position above rivals.
Poll shows overwhelming Republican opposition to taking Greenland by force
Donald Trump dips to 2%2%
A bipartisan poll revealing that even most Republicans oppose a military takeover of Greenland undercut Donald Trump’s foreign‑policy agenda, contributing to a further decline in Trump‑related candidates’ market prices.
Rubio pledges to back JD Vance if he runs for president
Marco Rubio jumps to 23%8%
Rubio’s interview with Vanity Fair confirmed he would support Vance if he ran, lifting Rubio’s market price from 15 % to 23 % by late January.
Thomas Massie gains attention as a Trump critic in Kentucky primary race
Thomas Massie rises to 2%1%
Massie, known for opposing Trump on key issues, launched a competitive primary campaign in Kentucky, attracting media attention and modest market interest as a potential 2028 contender.
Republican National Committee adopts amendment to hold midterms convention
The RNC's decision to hold a midterms convention was seen as a strategic move to energize the party base and support candidates, indirectly affecting the presidential nomination landscape.
Vice President J.D. Vance and wife announce pregnancy of fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
The announcement of Vance's growing family humanized him and reinforced his pro-family image, which is a key theme in conservative politics. This personal news likely helped maintain his support among conservative voters and activists.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin endorses JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a great nominee for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, lending significant establishment support and boosting Vance's market position.
Glenn Youngkin endorses J.D. Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance as a great nominee for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling party consolidation and causing Youngkin's market price to drop to 1%.
Glenn Youngkin endorses JD Vance as a 'great' Republican nominee for 2028
J.D. Vance plunges to 2%48%
Outgoing Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance as a strong candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, signaling party consolidation and influencing market perceptions.
Suspect in vandalism of JD Vance’s home pleads not guilty in federal court
The suspect charged with vandalizing Vance’s home pleaded not guilty, prolonging legal proceedings and keeping the incident in public attention, which maintained market focus on Vance’s security and public image.
Vice President JD Vance touts Trump administration's anti-abortion record at March for Life
Vance highlighted the Trump administration's achievements on abortion restrictions, appealing to conservative voters and reinforcing his standing within the party.
Vance’s pregnancy announcement revisited, boosting his personal appeal
J.D. Vance dips to 54%2%
A follow‑up social‑media post confirming the upcoming birth kept Vance in the news cycle, sustaining his market momentum during a period of relative price stability.
JD Vance touts Trump’s anti‑abortion record at March for Life rally
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
By linking himself to the successful anti‑abortion agenda, Vance reinforced his appeal to the party’s social‑conservative base, lifting his price modestly as rivals lost ground on that issue.
Supreme Court hears Republican-led challenge to political spending limits including JD Vance
The Supreme Court heard a case challenging limits on political party spending, with Vice President JD Vance involved, raising speculation about his political ambitions and affecting market perceptions.
Tucker Carlson meets Trump and oil executives in the White House
Tucker Carlson jumps to 7%5%
A photo‑op showed Tucker Carlson meeting President Trump and senior oil executives in the White House East Room. The visibility raised Carlson’s market odds, moving his price from 2 % in early January to 5 % by early April and ultimately to 7 % by early June.
YouGov poll shows decline in JD Vance's GOP support
J.D. Vance drops to 48%7%
A YouGov survey indicated a 5-point drop in Republican support for Vance, signaling waning enthusiasm and causing a market price decline.
Marco Rubio outlines US strategy for Venezuela post-Maduro
Rubio clarified that the US would enforce an oil embargo and use leverage to press for policy changes in Venezuela, tempering concerns about direct governance and stabilizing his nomination odds.
Polls show US voters oppose taking Greenland by military force despite Trump's stance
Marco Rubio drops to 7%8%
Polls revealed widespread opposition among US voters, including Republicans, to President Trump's suggestion of taking Greenland by military force, highlighting challenges for candidates aligned with Trump and affecting market perceptions of Trump and Rubio.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance's Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
An attack on JD Vance's residence by a man causing property damage brought media attention and sympathy to Vance, reinforcing his public profile and possibly contributing to a temporary market price stabilization.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis calls special legislative session for redistricting
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Ron DeSantis announced a special legislative session to redraw Florida's congressional maps, aiming to strengthen Republican control ahead of the 2026 midterms, which coincided with a steep drop in his market price.
Man arrested for vandalizing JD Vance's Ohio home with hammer
J.D. Vance dips to 3%3%
A man armed with a hammer broke windows at Vice President JD Vance's Ohio residence and was detained by the Secret Service. This security incident raised concerns about Vance's safety and may have negatively impacted his market price, which dropped from 6% to 3% around this time.
Man detained after vandalizing JD Vance's Ohio home
J.D. Vance dips to 52%3%
A man armed with a hammer broke windows at Vice President JD Vance's Ohio home and was detained by the Secret Service, raising security concerns and drawing public attention to Vance's personal safety, impacting market perceptions.
Trump administration conducts military operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
President Donald Trump's administration executed a military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio playing a key role in briefing Congress and managing the foreign policy narrative. This event bolstered Rubio's profile, reflected in his market price rising from 14% to 26% in early 2026.
Marco Rubio sees surge in nomination odds
Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%
Marco Rubio's profile rose as he took a central role in the Trump administration's foreign policy, particularly regarding Venezuela, boosting his standing as a potential successor.
Marco Rubio publicly defers to JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio rises to 13%4%
Marco Rubio publicly indicated he would support JD Vance if he runs for president in 2028, signaling party unity and boosting Vance's market position.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
A security incident occurred when a man vandalized Vice President Vance's home, causing significant damage and leading to federal charges. This event highlighted security concerns but also elicited public sympathy for Vance, stabilizing his market position.
Vandalism incident at J.D. Vance's Ohio home
J.D. Vance dips to 50%2%
A man was detained after breaking windows at the Vice President's home, an event that kept Vance in the news cycle during a period of political jockeying.
Trump admin announces Venezuela operation; Rubio highlighted
Marco Rubio jumps to 12%8%
The Trump administration announced a successful military operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro, highlighting Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s prominent role. The news lifted Rubio’s market price from the low‑teens to the mid‑teens, marking the start of his steady climb through March 2026.
Successful U.S. military operation in Venezuela involving Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
The operation's success and Rubio's prominent role increased his visibility and nomination odds, reflecting his foreign policy credentials.
Trump administration announces successful military operation in Venezuela involving Rubio
The announcement of a successful military operation in Venezuela, with Marco Rubio prominently involved, boosted Rubio's profile and increased his market odds for the Republican nomination from 13.5% upwards.
Marco Rubio's involvement in Venezuela operation raises his profile
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
Marco Rubio's prominent role in a successful military operation in Venezuela increased his visibility and boosted his market chances for the 2028 nomination.
US military operation captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%7%
The Trump administration, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and supported by Vice President JD Vance, conducted a military operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, boosting Rubio's profile and impacting the nomination market.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
An attack on Vance's home heightened public attention on his security and political profile, possibly eliciting sympathy and support from GOP voters.
Man arrested for vandalizing JD Vance's Ohio home
J.D. Vance rises to 56%1%
The arrest of William D. DeFoor for damaging JD Vance's home highlighted security concerns but also garnered sympathy and support for Vance, stabilizing his market position.
JD Vance tops National Pro-Life Summit straw poll for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Vance's dominant performance in this conservative poll reinforced his frontrunner status and contributed to sustained market confidence.
Vance named RNC finance chair to boost fundraising
J.D. Vance jumps to 49%14%
JD Vance was named finance chair of the Republican National Committee, strengthening his fundraising capabilities and positioning him as a serious 2028 candidate.
Vance outlines strategy to stay loyal to Trump and raise big money for 2028
Axios reported Vance’s plan to remain loyal to Trump and raise money as RNC finance chair, reinforcing his front‑runner status and keeping his price near 55 %.
Republicans urged to consider post-Trump 2028 landscape
Analysts and party figures highlighted Vance's position as the 2028 frontrunner and the importance of midterms, reinforcing market confidence in Vance's candidacy.
JD Vance focuses on loyalty to Trump and midterm campaigning to secure 2028 nomination
JD Vance prioritized showing loyalty to Trump and campaigning for Republican midterm candidates to build support and raise funds, reinforcing his frontrunner status for 2028.
JD Vance emphasizes loyalty to Trump as key to 2028 nomination bid
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
Vance's strategy to remain loyal to Trump and avoid antagonizing MAGA factions was highlighted, signaling his intent to secure Trump's backing for a 2028 run, which helped maintain his market position.
Republicans increasingly view J.D. Vance as 2028 GOP frontrunner
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
Analyses and endorsements positioned Vance as the leading candidate for the 2028 nomination, boosting his market price and solidifying his status within the party.
JD Vance wins CPAC straw poll for 2028 GOP presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
Vance's victory in the influential CPAC straw poll confirmed his frontrunner status and reinforced market confidence in his nomination chances.
JD Vance named finance chair of Republican National Committee
Vance's appointment as RNC finance chair helped him build donor networks and political capital ahead of a potential 2028 run, supporting his frontrunner position.
Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
The announcement of a fourth child strengthened Vance's family image and pro-family messaging, further solidifying his appeal to conservative voters.
Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance at Turning Point USA AmericaFest
J.D. Vance rises to 56%3%
Endorsement from Turning Point USA leader Erika Kirk and support from influential conservatives like Nicki Minaj bolstered Vance's standing among the GOP base and volunteers.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
J.D. Vance surges to 55%16%
Conservative organization Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president in 2028, signaling strong grassroots and organizational support that boosted his market price.
Vance says Insurrection Act not needed in Minneapolis amid immigration crackdown
J.D. Vance dips to 51%2%
Vance’s public statement downplaying the need for the Insurrection Act kept him in the news while reinforcing his law‑and‑order image, causing a slight dip in his price.
Tucker Carlson calls attacks on Muslim Americans ‘disgusting’ and later defends Sharia law
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Carlson’s controversial comments condemning attacks on Muslim Americans and later praising Sharia triggered backlash from right‑wing commentators, limiting his political relevance and keeping his market price flat at a low‑single‑digit level (5‑6 %).
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, Secret Service detains suspect
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
The vandalism incident generated negative headlines for Vance, causing a brief dip in his market price as security concerns and personal attacks entered the news cycle.
Turning Point USA leader publicly endorses JD Vance at AmericaFest
This endorsement from a key MAGA-aligned organization strengthened Vance's position as the party's likely nominee.
Turning Point USA leader Erika Kirk endorses J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
Erika Kirk's endorsement at AmericaFest signaled influential conservative support for Vance, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence.
Turning Point USA endorses J.D. Vance for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed J.D. Vance at the AmericaFest conference, boosting his support among conservative activists and increasing his market probability.
Tucker Carlson faces backlash for controversial statements on Islam and Israel
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%1%
Carlson's December 2025 remarks downplaying radical Islam and blaming Israel for fears led to criticism and a decline in his political influence, reflected in stagnant low market support.
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses J.D. Vance for 2028
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
Erika Kirk's public endorsement of J.D. Vance at the AmericaFest convention solidified his position as the frontrunner for the 2028 nomination among key conservative grassroots networks.
Turning Point USA officially endorses J.D. Vance for 2028
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 nomination, solidifying his position as the frontrunner among grassroots conservative organizations.
Vice President JD Vance defends wife against racist attacks
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
JD Vance publicly condemned attacks on his wife, Usha Vance, including racist comments by Nick Fuentes, reinforcing his personal and political resolve, which positively influenced his market price.
Vance defends marriage and family policy during UnHerd interview
Vance addressed criticism of his interfaith marriage and defended his family values, reinforcing his pro-family platform and appeal to conservative voters.
Outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin rolls out final 2026‑2028 budget ahead of his exit
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Youngkin’s final two‑year budget presentation and his announced departure from the governor’s seat signaled the end of his political career, driving his market price from 50 % in July 2025 to 1 % by May 2026.
Vice President J.D. Vance addresses conservative discord at Turning Point USA conference
J.D. Vance dips to 52%2%
At the Turning Point USA AmericaFest conference, Vice President J.D. Vance emphasized inclusivity within the conservative movement and declined to condemn antisemitism, aiming to unify the party amid internal conflicts. This event highlighted the challenges Vance faces in consolidating support, contributing to a gradual decline in his market price from late 2025 into early 2026.
Turning Point USA endorses J.D. Vance for 2028
J.D. Vance dips to 53%3%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, officially endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 presidential nomination, solidifying his position as the movement's preferred candidate.
Marco Rubio and JD Vance meet with Greenland and Denmark officials
Marco Rubio rises to 11%4%
Rubio's diplomatic engagement raised his profile and increased his nomination odds, reflected in market price gains.
Marco Rubio rules out 2028 presidential run if JD Vance seeks GOP nomination
Marco Rubio jumps to 21%7%
Marco Rubio publicly announced he would not run for president in 2028 if J.D. Vance runs, signaling party unity and consolidating support around Vance, which influenced market prices by reducing competition for the nomination.
Marco Rubio rules out 2028 run if JD Vance seeks Republican nomination
Marco Rubio publicly stated he would not run for president in 2028 if JD Vance seeks the nomination, reinforcing Vance's position and signaling party cohesion, which influenced market confidence in Vance.
Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance meet with Greenland and Denmark officials
Marco Rubio rises to 11%4%
This diplomatic engagement raised Rubio's profile and slightly increased his nomination odds, reflecting his active role in foreign policy.
Donald Trump Jr. announces engagement to Bettina Anderson at White House holiday party
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Donald Trump Jr.'s engagement announcement at a high-profile White House event shifted media attention away from his political prospects, coinciding with a sharp decline in his market price.
Vice President JD Vance publicly defends wife against racist attacks
J.D. Vance rises to 54%2%
Vance strongly condemned attacks on his wife Usha Vance by far-right figures, asserting anyone attacking his family 'can eat s---,' which reinforced his image as a protective and resolute leader, stabilizing his market support.
Supreme Court hears Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits
Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%
The Supreme Court’s hearing of a case that includes JD Vance raised speculation about future fundraising rules, benefiting candidates perceived as aligned with the party’s legal strategy and giving a modest boost to Marco Rubio’s odds.
Vice President JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid controversy over Nick Fuentes
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
JD Vance publicly condemned racist attacks on his wife by right-wing podcaster Nick Fuentes and others, taking a strong stance against bigotry which helped solidify his image among moderate conservatives and may have stabilized his market support.
JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife by far-right figures
J.D. Vance rises to 54%1%
Vance publicly denounced racist attacks on his wife by far-right podcaster Nick Fuentes and others, asserting a strong personal stance that resonated with moderate conservatives and helped maintain his support.
JD Vance defends his wife amid racist attacks, strengthening his public image
Vice President JD Vance publicly condemned racist attacks against his wife, Usha Vance, including those by far-right podcaster Nick Fuentes, asserting a strong protective stance that resonated with supporters and helped stabilize his nomination odds.
JD Vance publicly defends his wife against racist attacks
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
Vance’s strong public defense of his wife against racist comments reinforced his personal image and may have influenced his market support positively.
JD Vance posts then deletes reference to Armenian genocide during diplomatic visit
J.D. Vance dips to 52%2%
Vance’s social‑media post about the Armenian genocide was quickly removed after criticism, generating a brief controversy that modestly affected his market perception.
Supreme Court hears case linked to JD Vance's 2028 ambitions
The Supreme Court discussed JD Vance's 2028 presidential ambitions during a case on campaign finance restrictions, signaling potential legal changes that could benefit Vance's campaign efforts and maintaining market interest in his candidacy.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
A man vandalized Vice President JD Vance's home in Ohio, causing significant damage and leading to his detention. The incident brought media attention to Vance's personal security and public profile, slightly impacting his market perception.
JD Vance announces $1.3 billion Medicaid fraud crackdown in California
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Vice President JD Vance announced a major federal initiative to defer $1.3 billion in Medicaid funds to California over suspected fraud, highlighting his active role in government and boosting his political profile.
Vice President JD Vance announces expecting fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 54%1%
Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, highlighting his family-oriented image which aligns with his political messaging on family values, positively influencing his market perception.
Rubio backs U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities
Marco Rubio drops to 8%6%
Rubio publicly defended the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, positioning himself as a hawk on national security and sparking a modest rise in his market probability.
Vance’s family appears at Milan hockey game, drawing media attention
J.D. Vance rises to 56%3%
Vance’s public appearance with his family at a U.S. women’s hockey game during the Olympics generated positive coverage and reinforced his image as a family‑oriented leader, contributing to a modest price increase.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance amid conservative party tensions
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, endorsed JD Vance as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting his market price.
Trump says he won’t run in 2028 and backs JD Vance as successor
J.D. Vance plunges to 31%25%
President Trump told reporters he would not be the 2028 nominee and named Vice President J.D. Vance as the most likely successor. The comment cemented Vance’s front‑runner image and contributed to the downward pressure on other candidates, especially J.D. Vance’s own price, which began a gradual decline after the peak in late 2025.
CPAC straw poll shows JD Vance as favorite for 2028 GOP presidential nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
JD Vance's strong showing in the CPAC straw poll confirmed his frontrunner status among conservative activists, boosting market confidence in his nomination chances.
President Trump announces he will not be GOP nominee in 2028
Trump publicly stated he would not seek the 2028 nomination, causing a major shift in market odds with Vance and Rubio rising as leading contenders.
President Trump publicly states he will not be 2028 Republican nominee
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
Trump's announcement that he will not seek the 2028 nomination caused a sharp drop in his and Donald Trump Jr.'s market odds, shifting focus to other candidates like Vance and Rubio.
Vice President JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid right-wing controversies
J.D. Vance dips to 54%1%
JD Vance publicly condemned racist attacks on his wife by right-wing figures including Nick Fuentes and Jen Psaki, asserting a strong stance against ethnic bigotry. This statement reinforced his leadership image but also highlighted ongoing tensions within the conservative movement, contributing to a slight decline in his market price from 55% to 54%.
Trump says he will not run for 2028 Republican nomination
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
Trump announced he would not be the 2028 Republican nominee, causing his own market price to fall from 15 % to 4 % and slightly boosting Vance’s price.
JD Vance announces $1.3 billion Medicaid deferral to California
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Vance’s high‑profile anti‑fraud initiative showcased his executive authority, reinforcing his image as a decisive leader and nudging his price upward from 55% to 59% by early January 2026.
Donald Trump publicly announces he will not run for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 55%5%
President Trump's declaration he would not be the nominee cleared the path for other candidates, notably boosting Vance's odds and causing sharp declines for DeSantis and Trump Jr.
JD Vance delivers speech at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest, endorsed by Erika Kirk
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
Vance emphasized inclusivity in the conservative movement and received endorsement from Turning Point USA leader Erika Kirk, enhancing his grassroots support and market standing.
Trump publicly states he will not be 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 34%19%
Trump's announcement removed himself from consideration, shifting focus to Vance and Rubio as the primary contenders and boosting Vance's market position.
Donald Trump publicly states he will not be 2028 Republican nominee
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
President Trump announced he will not be the Republican nominee for the 2028 presidential election, which shifted market probabilities away from Trump and his son, benefiting other candidates like Vance and Rubio.
Vice President Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid controversy
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
JD Vance publicly condemned racist attacks on his wife Usha Vance by figures like Nick Fuentes and Jen Psaki, asserting a strong stance against ethnic-based judgment, which reinforced his public image and affected market sentiment.
JD Vance widely viewed as heir apparent in Trump-aligned GOP for 2028
J.D. Vance dips to 54%1%
Media coverage reinforced Vance's status as the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, supporting his market position despite some volatility.
Donald Trump receives unconditional discharge for 2024 felony conviction
Donald Trump drops to 2%13%
Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts in the New York hush money case but received an unconditional discharge in January 2025, allowing him to avoid prison or probation, maintaining his political viability.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 55%14%
Turning Point USA announced official endorsement of JD Vance, lifting his price from the low‑40s to roughly 55 % by early December.
Turning Point USA announces support for J.D. Vance as Republican nominee
J.D. Vance rises to 48%1%
Turning Point USA's announcement of support for Vance helped consolidate conservative activist backing, boosting his market odds significantly.
J.D. Vance plans to discuss 2028 presidential run with Donald Trump
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
Vance revealed intentions to consult with former President Trump about a possible 2028 campaign, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing market interest to remain elevated.
Supreme Court hears GOP challenge to party‑spending limits, Vance joins lawsuit
J.D. Vance dips to 42%4%
Vance’s participation in a Supreme Court case to lift party‑spending caps signaled his ambition for higher office, giving his market price a modest boost as donors anticipated a more powerful campaign infrastructure.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained
An attack on JD Vance’s home by a man causing property damage brought media attention to Vance, reinforcing his public profile and security concerns. The market price remained relatively stable but highlighted his prominence.
Greg Abbott launches campaign for fourth term as Texas governor, fueling 2028 speculation
Greg Abbott plunges to 1%24%
Abbott announced his 2026 reelection campaign, positioning himself strongly in Texas politics and sparking speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, though he has not committed to it.
Marco Rubio privately backs JD Vance as 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance rises to 60%3%
Reports revealed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio privately expressed strong support for Vice President JD Vance as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination, signaling party unity and boosting Vance's perceived inevitability as nominee.
Rubio privately confides Vance is the frontrunner for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and would support him if he chose to run.
Marco Rubio privately states J.D. Vance is frontrunner for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told confidants that J.D. Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and expressed his support for Vance, reinforcing Vance's position and increasing market confidence in his nomination.
Marco Rubio privately endorses JD Vance as 2028 frontrunner
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Rubio expressed private support for JD Vance as the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, signaling party consolidation around Vance and boosting his market prospects.
Marco Rubio privately states JD Vance is frontrunner for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
Marco Rubio told confidants that JD Vance is the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination and expressed support for him, reinforcing Vance's position and boosting his market price.
Rubio privately confirms Vance as 2028 Republican nominee frontrunner
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 nomination and would support him if Vance chose to run, reinforcing the market's expectation of Vance as the nominee.
Marco Rubio privately acknowledges J.D. Vance as frontrunner
Marco Rubio told confidants he supports J.D. Vance as the likely Republican nominee, signaling party consolidation around Vance and boosting his market position.
Marco Rubio privately says JD Vance is 2028 frontrunner and pledges support
Marco Rubio jumps to 24%10%
Marco Rubio privately told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and expressed willingness to support him, which likely contributed to Rubio's price increase from 14% to 24% and reinforced Vance's frontrunner status.
Marco Rubio privately tells confidants that JD Vance is the 2028 frontrunner
Marco Rubio privately expressed to confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and that he would support Vance if he runs, signaling party alignment behind Vance.
Marco Rubio privately acknowledges JD Vance as 2028 GOP frontrunner
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
Marco Rubio told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and expressed willingness to support Vance as vice president. This endorsement solidified Vance's position and boosted his market price.
Rubio says JD Vance is the GOP’s 2028 frontrunner in private conversations
Marco Rubio rises to 18%4%
Rubio privately told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner and that he would back a Trump‑chosen ticket, nudging Rubio’s own market price upward from 14 % to 18 % over the next month.
Marco Rubio privately endorses J.D. Vance as 2028 GOP frontrunner
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told confidants that Vance is the frontrunner and that he would support him, signaling party unity and boosting Vance's market position.
JD Vance maintains early lead in Republican nomination market
J.D. Vance jumps to 60%5%
JD Vance held a strong position early in the analysis window, with market prices around 55-60%, reflecting his status as the initial frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
Vance announces $1.3 billion Medicaid deferral for California
Vance's administration took aggressive steps to investigate Medicaid fraud, enhancing his credibility on fiscal responsibility and public trust. This action reinforced his policy platform.
Vance’s positive remarks at March for Life rally reinforce pro‑life credentials
J.D. Vance dips to 53%3%
Vance’s speech at the March for Life rally highlighted his alignment with Trump’s anti‑abortion legacy, reinforcing support among socially conservative voters and stabilizing his market price.
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Erika Kirk's endorsement of Vance as the 48th president helped establish early momentum for Vance in the market, with Turning Point USA planning to support him in key early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance and plans early state support
J.D. Vance rises to 58%3%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president and announced plans to support him in key early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, boosting Vance's campaign prospects and market price.
JD Vance criticizes Israel's parliament vote on West Bank annexation
J.D. Vance dips to 56%3%
Vance's public stance on a contentious foreign policy issue demonstrated his active engagement in national and international matters, influencing his nomination prospects.
Tucker Carlson headlines Turning Point USA event at Indiana University
Tucker Carlson spoke at a major conservative event, maintaining his public profile and influence despite low market odds, with his market price steady around 4%.
JD Vance lauds Trump's record against abortion at March for Life rally
Vance highlighted the Trump administration's pro-life record, reinforcing his conservative credentials and appeal to the Republican base.
JD Vance expresses optimism on Israel-Hamas ceasefire
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Vance's involvement in foreign policy and public optimism on ceasefire efforts enhanced his profile as a serious contender for the Republican nomination.
Newsweek poll finds JD Vance’s 2028 GOP nomination odds rise to 33 % then tumble to 20 %
J.D. Vance plunges to 32%28%
A Newsweek poll showed Vance at a career‑high of 33 % support for the 2028 GOP nomination, then falling to 20 % by April 2026. The sharp rise and later decline moved his market price from the low‑30 % range in late October 2025 up to a peak of 60 % on 31 Oct 2025, and then down to the current 32 % by the end of May 2026.
Turning Point USA endorses Vice President J.D. Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk after Charlie Kirk's assassination, publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance and committed to supporting his campaign in key early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire. This endorsement signaled strong grassroots backing and boosted Vance's market price significantly.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Senate run, signaling GOP primary shifts
Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, backed by his strong Trump ties, indicated ongoing realignments within the Republican Party, indirectly affecting nomination prospects of candidates like Vance and Rubio.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Senate bid, intensifying GOP primary battles
Wesley Hunt's Senate run announcement added to the competitive Republican primary landscape, influencing market perceptions of GOP candidates' futures.
Supreme Court hears Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits
The case, joined by Vance, raised the prospect of unlimited party spending, which benefitted the candidate with the strongest establishment backing—Vance—causing his price to hold steady near 55% while rivals slipped.
Vice President Vance announces $1.3 billion Medicaid deferral for California over fraud concerns
J.D. Vance dips to 46%4%
The high‑profile anti‑fraud announcement positioned Vance as a tough fiscal manager, boosting his standing among conservative voters and nudging his price upward while drawing attention away from other contenders.
Poll shows JD Vance leading GOP primary in Pennsylvania
An October poll showed JD Vance leading in a key swing state GOP primary, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting his market price around 54%.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a potential successor to Donald Trump, providing him with significant volunteer support and boosting his nomination odds from 29% to over 50%.
JD Vance presents himself as a hardline Trump loyalist and 2028 candidate
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vance's public appearances emphasized his loyalty to Trump and positioned him as a stealth 2028 candidate, boosting his profile and market odds.
JD Vance refuses to set red‑line on bigotry at Turning Point convention
J.D. Vance dips to 50%3%
Vance’s decision not to condemn extremist podcaster Nick Fuentes sparked controversy but also highlighted his willingness to avoid intra‑party purity tests, keeping his base engaged and sustaining his market momentum.
Marco Rubio publicly backs JD Vance for 2028
Marco Rubio rises to 13%4%
Senator Rubio said he would support Vance if he runs, giving the establishment a unified front and lifting Rubio’s own price from 9% to 13% as his endorsement was seen as a strategic alliance rather than a candidacy.
JD Vance announces fourth child due in July 2026
J.D. Vance dips to 51%3%
Vance’s personal family news generated positive media coverage and human‑interest appeal, nudging his price upward from 54% to 51% as voters perceived him as family‑oriented.
JD Vance leads New Hampshire GOP primary poll with 56% support
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
A Saint Anselm College poll showed Vance with 56% support in New Hampshire, the highest for a non-sitting president since 1980, boosting his market odds as the likely GOP nominee.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance at Olympic delegation, boosting Rubio’s profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 25%11%
Rubio’s inclusion in the high‑profile Olympic delegation gave him a visibility boost, coinciding with a sharp rise in his market price from 14 % to 25 % by mid‑May 2026.
Marco Rubio emerges as viable 2028 GOP candidate in polls
Marco Rubio drops to 7%7%
Polls showed Marco Rubio as a viable option within the Republican Party for 2028, with 33% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, boosting his market price slightly despite Vance's lead.
Marco Rubio gains viability as 2028 Republican candidate in polls
Marco Rubio rises to 10%2%
Polls showed Rubio as a viable option within the Republican Party for 2028, with significant support among Republicans and independents, boosting his market price and positioning him as a consensus figure amid party tensions.
YouGov Poll Confirms J.D. Vance as Top Choice for 2028 GOP Nominee
A YouGov survey of Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters showed J.D. Vance as the clear favorite, with 44% naming him as their ideal candidate, far ahead of Donald Trump Jr. and Ron DeSantis.
Second lady Usha Vance announces she is pregnant with fourth child
Vance announced that he and his wife were expecting their fourth child. The human‑interest news generated a surge of positive media coverage and reinforced his image as a family‑focused leader, keeping his market price near the top of the range.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will be ineligible for a third term and will leave office in Jan 2027
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Articles clarified that DeSantis is term‑limited and will leave the governor’s office in January 2027, ending speculation about a 2028 presidential run and causing his market price to plunge from 50 % in early July 2025 to single‑digit levels by August 2025.
Tucker Carlson hosts controversial Holocaust denial interview on podcast
Tucker Carlson dips to 4%1%
Tucker Carlson hosted an interview with a Holocaust denier on his podcast, sparking widespread condemnation and controversy, which may have influenced his low and stagnant market price.
Vance leads New Hampshire primary poll with 56% support
J.D. Vance surges to 54%25%
This poll showed Vance as the first non-sitting president to receive 50%+ support in New Hampshire early primary polls since 1980, reinforcing his status as the likely nominee.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance rises to 56%3%
Vance’s role as head of the U.S. Olympic delegation raised his international profile and reinforced his image as a unifying figure, supporting a continued upward trend in his market price.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child is on the way
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
Vance’s personal announcement of a fourth child generated positive media coverage and humanized the candidate, contributing to a modest rise in his market price later in August.
Turning Point USA backs JD Vance for 2028 presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA publicly endorsed JD Vance for the 2028 presidential nomination, promising early ground operations in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. The endorsement was covered by national media and raised Vance’s visibility, pushing his market price from 29 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 55 % on 2025‑08‑02.
Ron DeSantis drops out of 2028 race after poor fundraising reports
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Reports of DeSantis’s weak fundraising and lack of endorsements caused his market price to plunge from 50% to the single digits, reflecting diminished confidence among Republican voters.
JD Vance downplays 2028 presidential run speculation
Vice President JD Vance stated it was "way too early" to consider a 2028 presidential bid, signaling focus on current duties but maintaining frontrunner status, which stabilized his market price.
Vice President J.D. Vance addresses 2028 run speculation, focuses on current duties
J.D. Vance dips to 54%1%
Vance publicly stated he is not focused on the 2028 election and is concentrating on his current responsibilities, tempering some of the earlier enthusiasm and stabilizing his market price.
Rasmussen Poll Shows J.D. Vance with Wide Lead in 2028 GOP Primary Field
A national survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports showed Vice President J.D. Vance holding a commanding lead over other potential 2028 Republican contenders, with DeSantis and Rubio tied far behind.
JD Vance and second lady Usha Vance announce fourth child is on the way
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
The Vances’ pregnancy announcement generated a surge of positive media coverage and reinforced Vance’s pro‑family image, lifting his market price further and pulling down rivals tied to family‑policy debates.
Glenn Youngkin publicly supports J.D. Vance for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance plunges to 3%47%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly endorsed J.D. Vance, lending establishment support and increasing Vance's market probability while diminishing his own chances.
Trump endorses JD Vance as the leading 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Trump publicly endorsed JD Vance as the most likely Republican nominee for 2028, boosting Vance’s market price from 29 % to 55 % in the days that followed.
Donald Trump Declares J.D. Vance 'Most Likely' 2028 Republican Nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
President Donald Trump stated on CNBC's Squawk Box that he will not seek a third term and named Vice President J.D. Vance as the most likely successor and favorite for the 2028 nomination.
President Trump names JD Vance as 'most likely' 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President JD Vance is the "most likely" heir apparent for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, lending significant weight to Vance's frontrunner status and boosting his market price.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, Secret Service detains suspect
J.D. Vance drops to 46%9%
A vandalism incident at Vance’s residence drew national attention and raised security concerns, contributing to a dip in his market price from 55% back toward the mid‑40s as voters questioned his safety and focus.
JD Vance announces he will consider a 2028 presidential run
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Vance told Fox News he is focused on the vice presidency but will discuss a 2028 bid after the 2026 midterms, prompting speculation and a modest price rise from 55% to 59% by early November as the field narrowed.
J.D. Vance's nomination odds surge to over 50%
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
J.D. Vance's market price jumped significantly, reflecting growing support and speculation about his potential candidacy and Trump's backing.
Governor Youngkin backs JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin announced his support for JD Vance, causing Youngkin’s own market price to tumble from 50 % to 3 % within a week.
Republicans quietly position Rubio and Vance as 2028 contenders
Marco Rubio drops to 8%6%
Republican insiders and analysts highlighted Marco Rubio and JD Vance as the most prominent figures in the 2028 GOP field, with Rubio gaining attention for his foreign policy experience and Vance seen as Trump's heir apparent, influencing market dynamics.
Florida investigation alleges chief‑of‑staff money‑laundering scheme tied to DeSantis
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
A Florida investigative report exposed alleged money‑laundering by DeSantis’s chief of staff, causing DeSantis’s market odds to plunge from 50 % to the low‑single digits within weeks.
Republicans quietly make moves for 2028 presidential field including Vance and Rubio
Analysis highlighted JD Vance and Marco Rubio as the best-known potential candidates for the 2028 Republican nomination, reinforcing Vance's position as a frontrunner and supporting his market price stability around 50%. This indicated growing party recognition of Vance's candidacy potential.
JD Vance’s poll surge follows Turning Point endorsement
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Following the Turning Point endorsement, Vance’s market price jumped from 29 % to 55 % on August 2, reflecting a surge in voter confidence and media attention.
JD Vance’s market price spikes to 55% after Turning Point endorsement
Following the endorsement, Vance’s price peaked at 55% on August 31, reflecting increased confidence among bettors that he will secure the nomination.
Donald Trump Jr. criticizes JD Vance’s family news as political stunt
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Following JD Vance’s pregnancy announcement, Donald Trump Jr. made a dismissive comment on social media suggesting the Vance family’s growing children were a political stunt. The remark prompted negative press for Trump Jr., contributing to a decline in his market price from 35 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 3 % on 2025‑08‑02.
Governor DeSantis rules out 2028 presidential run
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Governor Ron DeSantis announced he would not seek the 2028 nomination, prompting his market price to plunge from 50 % to 4 % the next day.
Donald Trump defers 2028 talk, backs JD Vance’s family news
Donald Trump drops to 3%12%
Former President Donald Trump issued a brief statement supporting JD Vance’s family and downplaying his own 2028 ambitions, shifting media focus away from himself and resulting in his market price dropping from 15 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 3 % on 2025‑08‑02.
Donald Trump Jr. says he will not run for 2028 GOP nomination
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Trump Jr. publicly declared he would not run for president, causing his market price to slide from 35 % to 3 % within days.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, detained by Secret Service
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
A vandalism incident at Vance’s residence attracted national media attention and raised security concerns, leading to a modest decline in his market price as voters questioned his personal safety and public image.
Vice President JD Vance says he will talk with Donald Trump about a 2028 presidential run after midterms
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vance’s public declaration that he would discuss a 2028 run with Trump after the 2026 midterms boosted his market price from the low‑20 % range in July 2025 up to 55 % in early August 2025.
J.D. Vance gains strong early polling support in New Hampshire
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
A September 2025 poll by Saint Anselm College showed Vance with 56% support in New Hampshire, a key early primary state, boosting his market odds significantly.
JD Vance appointed to lead federal Medicaid fraud task force
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
JD Vance was appointed to lead a high-profile federal task force targeting Medicaid fraud, raising his national profile and boosting his market price from 29% to 55%. This role positioned him as a serious contender for the 2028 nomination.
Marco Rubio publicly endorses JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio surges to 56%27%
Marco Rubio publicly expressed support for Vice President JD Vance as a strong candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, signaling party consolidation and boosting both their standings in prediction markets.
Vice President JD Vance emerges as early GOP frontrunner in polls
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
JD Vance gained strong support in national Republican primary polls, solidifying his position as the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination and reinforcing his market price as the favorite.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
At the AmericaFest convention, Turning Point leader Erika Kirk publicly backed Vice President JD Vance, signaling grassroots support and raising his profile among primary voters, which coincided with a jump from 29% to 55% in his market price.
Rep. Mike Collins announces Senate run, signaling shifts in GOP leadership
Marco Rubio dips to 11%3%
Mike Collins' announcement to run for Senate indicated changes in Republican leadership dynamics, potentially affecting candidate support and market perceptions.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance at AmericaFest convention
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Turning Point USA’s annual AmericaFest convention featured a closing speech by Vice President JD Vance and an explicit endorsement from leader Erika Kirk, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting Vance’s nomination prospects.
Marco Rubio Endorses J.D. Vance for 2028 Republican Nomination
Marco Rubio drops to 7%7%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed rumors of his own 2028 presidential ambitions during a Fox News interview, instead throwing his support behind Vice President J.D. Vance.
Supreme Court hears Republican appeal to overturn campaign finance limits
J.D. Vance jumps to 60%5%
The Supreme Court heard arguments on a Republican-led lawsuit challenging limits on political party spending, with Vice President Vance joining the challenge. The case's outcome could impact future campaign finance rules and party funding.
Trump hints at focusing on 2026 midterms, not 2028 run
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
Early speculation that Trump might run again caused his price to dip from 15 % to 4 % after he clarified he would focus on the midterms.
Ron DeSantis staffer fired for pro-DeSantis video featuring Nazi symbol
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
A staffer on Ron DeSantis's campaign was fired after creating and sharing a video that included a Nazi symbol, leading to negative publicity and campaign staff layoffs, contributing to DeSantis's decline in market support.
Tucker Carlson criticizes Trump administration over Epstein controversy
Tucker Carlson dips to 1%4%
Tucker Carlson emerged as a vocal critic of the Trump administration's handling of the Epstein files, leading to a slight decline in his market probability from 5% to 1%.
Tucker Carlson slams JD Vance’s pregnancy announcement on Fox News
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
A one‑hour interview on Fox News where Tucker Carlson criticized the Vance family’s pregnancy news as a political distraction led to a slight uptick in his market price from 5 % to 6 % by mid‑May 2026, reflecting modest attention among his audience.
Secret Service detains man who broke windows at Vance's Ohio home
A security incident at Vance's residence drew attention to his protection and the political volatility surrounding him, though Vance expressed gratitude to the Secret Service.
Turning Point USA begins early support operations for JD Vance in key primary states
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Following their endorsement, Turning Point USA announced plans to support JD Vance's potential 2028 presidential campaign in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, increasing his visibility and campaign infrastructure, which positively impacted his market price.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization, endorsed JD Vance, significantly boosting his visibility and support in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire. This endorsement provided a strong grassroots foundation for Vance's 2028 campaign.
Turning Point USA backs JD Vance for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, endorsed Vance, giving him strong grassroots support in early primary states. This endorsement was a major boost for Vance's campaign viability.
Vice President Vance announces fourth child at social media post
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
Vance and his wife Usha Vance announced they are expecting their fourth child, a son due in late July. This positive family news boosted Vance's market price significantly, contributing to a +27 point swing from 29% to 56% in the following days.
Governor Ron DeSantis says he will not pursue 2028 presidential bid
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Governor Ron DeSantis publicly dismissed the idea of a 2028 run, focusing instead on his 2026 gubernatorial campaign. The statement was widely covered and caused his market price to plunge from 50 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 4 % on 2025‑08‑02.
Turning Point USA backs JD Vance at AmericaFest convention
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA’s annual AmericaFest convention featured a closing speech by Vice President JD Vance and an endorsement from leader Erika Kirk, signaling strong grassroots support and raising Vance’s visibility among primary voters.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
At the AmericaFest convention Turning Point USA announced its official backing of Vice President JD Vance, mobilizing its volunteer network in early‑state battlegrounds and signaling establishment support, which lifted Vance’s price from 29% to 55% by early August.
Rubio says U.S. is “running the direction” of Venezuela situation
Marco Rubio drops to 7%7%
Rubio told reporters that the United States was only “running the direction” of the situation in Venezuela after the recent U.S. operation that captured Maduro. His remarks, widely covered, highlighted the administration’s aggressive foreign‑policy stance and lifted Rubio’s visibility as a key foreign‑policy voice, giving his market price a modest rise after a period of decline.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin sparks 2028 presidential speculation with Iowa appearance
Glenn Youngkin's visit to Iowa and his speech at the Republican Party's Lincoln Dinner fueled speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, raising his national profile and market interest.
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. nomination odds plummet
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. saw their market prices drop sharply, indicating a loss of early momentum in the 2028 nomination race.
Trump Jr. tops poll for 2028 GOP nomination on July 18, 2025
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 35%15%
Donald Trump Jr. was highlighted in a poll that night showing him at 35 % support for a 2028 run, but his subsequent wedding announcement in 2026 redirected his market odds down to 3 %.
Trump cites poll showing 51 % support for 2028 bid at Ohio rally
Donald Trump plunges to 15%36%
Trump’s early‑July rally in Ohio quoted a poll showing him at 51 % support for the 2028 nomination, temporarily inflating his market price before it fell sharply later in the month.
Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin see sharp decline in presidential nomination odds
Following initial high expectations, both DeSantis and Youngkin experienced a massive drop in market confidence as the field began to coalesce around other figures.
Marco Rubio serves as U.S. Secretary of State, considered potential 2028 candidate
Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%
Rubio's appointment and role as Secretary of State raised his profile as a possible 2028 nominee, leading to gradual price increases in his market odds.
Ron DeSantis' presidential prospects plummet after early campaign missteps
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Ron DeSantis' support collapsed from 50% to 4% following poor campaign performance and negative media coverage, signaling a major loss of confidence among Republican voters.
Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. see sharp drop in nomination odds
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Following early speculation and polling, both Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. experienced significant declines in their nomination chances, reflecting shifting party support away from them.
Turning Point USA endorses Vice President J.D. Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization, publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling strong grassroots and organizational support. This endorsement coincided with a sharp rise in Vance's market price from 29% to 55% in late July 2025, reflecting increased confidence in his candidacy.
Marco Rubio signals potential 2028 presidential run
Marco Rubio publicly indicated he was considering a run for president in 2028, creating early speculation and modest market interest in his candidacy.
Donald Trump files defamation lawsuit over Wall Street Journal Epstein story
Trump filed a $10 billion defamation suit against the Wall Street Journal over a report alleging a suggestive letter to Epstein, intensifying the Epstein controversy and impacting his market odds negatively.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed JD Vance, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting his visibility in early primary states.
Vance announces anti-fraud task force targeting Medicaid and Medicare programs
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
Vance launched a high-profile initiative to investigate fraud in federal health programs, enhancing his credibility on fiscal responsibility and expanding his policy footprint.
Trump names Vance and Rubio as his two most likely successors
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Trump publicly suggested JD Vance and Marco Rubio as his two most likely successors, setting the stage for a Vance-Rubio ticket and boosting Vance's credibility as Trump's heir apparent.
Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., and Glenn Youngkin see sharp declines in nomination odds
Following initial market volatility, major contenders like Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., and Glenn Youngkin experienced a significant drop in their perceived chances of securing the 2028 nomination.
Vivek Ramaswamy says he will not run for president in 2028
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Vivek Ramaswamy publicly dismissed any 2028 presidential ambitions, emphasizing his focus on business ventures. The announcement coincided with a decline in his market price from 18 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 1 % by the end of the window.
Early Republican field sees major shifts in nomination prospects
Initial market sentiment saw a sharp decline for Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, and Donald Trump Jr., while J.D. Vance began to emerge as a primary contender.
Vance peaks at 51% on Supreme Court campaign finance arguments
J.D. Vance rises to 51%1%
Vance's involvement in the Supreme Court case challenging campaign finance limits for political parties elevated his profile, with his claim being cited in the arguments, though the justices ultimately ruled the claim moot.
JD Vance leads early New Hampshire GOP primary polls with over 50% support
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
A Saint Anselm College poll showed Vance with 56% support in New Hampshire, marking him as the first non-sitting president to surpass 50% in early GOP primary polls since 1980. This boosted market confidence in Vance as the likely nominee.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin Sparks 2028 Speculation at Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Governor Glenn Youngkin made a high-profile appearance at the Iowa GOP's annual Lincoln Dinner, fueling speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run and supporting Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus status.
Glenn Youngkin headlines Iowa GOP fundraiser, sparking 2028 presidential speculation
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin's appearance at the Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner fueled speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, raising his profile among early primary state voters and donors.
Glenn Youngkin raises profile with Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner speech
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin's appearance at the Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner fueled speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, increasing his visibility among key early primary voters and donors.
Glenn Youngkin signals interest in 2028 presidential run at Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin attended the Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner, a key early event for presidential hopefuls, signaling his interest in a 2028 presidential campaign and boosting his profile among Republican voters.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president in 2028 and began organizing grassroots support in key early primary states, significantly boosting Vance's market price from 29% to 55%.
JD Vance accepts Republican vice presidential nomination alongside Donald Trump
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
JD Vance accepted the Republican nomination for vice president, signaling his close alignment with Trump and raising his profile as a potential future presidential candidate, which caused his market price to rise sharply.
Glenn Youngkin raises national profile with Iowa GOP fundraiser appearance
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin's keynote speech at the Iowa Republican Party's Lincoln Dinner sparked speculation about a 2028 presidential run, boosting his early visibility among key donors and activists in an important early primary state.
JD Vance accepts Republican nomination for vice president
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
JD Vance accepted the Republican nomination for vice president, boosting his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate and causing his market price to rise significantly from 29% to 55%. This event marked Vance's formal entry into national politics at a high level, increasing investor confidence in his nomination prospects.
JD Vance announces new Medicaid fraud deferral targeting California
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vice President JD Vance announced a $1.3 billion deferral in Medicaid funding to California over suspected fraud, highlighting his anti-fraud task force's efforts. This high-profile initiative increased confidence in Vance's leadership and boosted his market price from 29% to 55%.
Ron DeSantis announces he will not run for president in 2028
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Ron DeSantis publicly declared he would not seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, causing a sharp drop in his market price from 50% to 4%. This announcement removed him as a leading contender, significantly impacting market expectations.
JD Vance appointed to lead anti-fraud task force targeting Medicaid fraud
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vice President JD Vance announced aggressive steps to combat Medicaid fraud, including deferring $1.3 billion in California Medicaid funds. This high-profile role boosted his visibility and market price as a potential 2028 Republican nominee.
Donald Trump faces backlash over Epstein files controversy
Donald Trump drops to 5%10%
President Trump publicly dismissed calls for transparency on Epstein files, calling it a 'hoax' and criticizing supporters, which contributed to a decline in his market probability from 15% to 5%.
J.D. Vance hints at 2028 presidential ambitions in social media post
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
J.D. Vance posted on Bluesky about his political future, sparking speculation he is positioning for a 2028 presidential run, which caused a significant price increase in his market odds.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin rules out 2028 presidential run
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Governor Glenn Youngkin announced he would not enter the 2028 presidential race, diverting Republican attention to other candidates and causing his market price to tumble from 50 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 1 % by the end of the analysis window.
Thomas Massie rules out 2028 presidential run
Thomas Massie dips to 1%4%
Massie issued a short “I’m not running” tweet after speculation that he might be a GOP contender. The clarification removed speculative upside from his market price, which slid from a brief high of 5 % to a flat 1 % over the month.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA announced it would back JD Vance in early primary states, prompting a rapid rise in his market price as grassroots volunteers pledged support, while other candidates slipped.
JD Vance hints at 2028 presidential ambitions with cryptic social media post
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
JD Vance posted on Bluesky a message hinting at his political future and wearing a 'Trump 2028' cap, sparking speculation that he is positioning himself for a 2028 presidential run. This announcement increased market confidence in Vance's candidacy, reflected in a price jump from 29% to 55%.
Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio polling behind Vance in GOP race
Ron DeSantis plunges to 5%45%
Polls in mid-July showed Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio trailing far behind JD Vance, contributing to a steep decline in DeSantis's market price from 50% to 5% and Rubio's from 14% to 7%.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance as potential 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance, boosting his profile and market confidence in his nomination chances. This endorsement signaled strong grassroots support crucial for early primary states.
Glenn Youngkin declines to comment on Turning Point endorsement battle
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Youngkin’s campaign released a brief statement denying any involvement in the Turning Point controversy and refusing to comment on the endorsement race. The lack of a clear stance and the perception that he was being sidelined caused a rapid sell‑off, dropping his price from 50 % to 1 % Yes within a week.
Ron DeSantis starts with high market support but quickly declines
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Ron DeSantis began the analysis window with a 50% market price but dropped sharply to 4% by early August, reflecting a rapid loss of perceived viability as the Republican nominee.
Man breaks windows at Vance's Ohio home, Secret Service says
A man damaged government property at Vance's residence, prompting security concerns and a federal investigation, though no direct market impact was observed.
Donald Trump Jr. and Donald Trump see sharp declines in nomination odds
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Both Trump Jr. and Donald Trump started with moderate market prices but lost favor as Vance and Rubio emerged as frontrunners, leading to significant price decreases.
Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin start with high nomination odds but quickly decline
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Early market optimism for DeSantis and Youngkin faded rapidly due to lack of campaign momentum and public support, causing steep price drops.
Vance leads CPAC straw poll with 61% support for 2028 GOP nomination
Vance's strong showing at CPAC signaled to conservative Republicans that he was best suited to succeed Trump, boosting his market position as the frontrunner.
Vice President JD Vance named top 2028 GOP nominee in early poll
J.D. Vance surges to 54%25%
A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll in September 2025 showed Vance with 56% support in New Hampshire, the first non-sitting president to reach 50% since 1980, boosting his prediction market odds to 48%.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed JD Vance as a potential 2028 Republican presidential nominee, signaling strong grassroots support and early momentum for Vance in key primary states.
Tucker Carlson maintains low but steady nomination odds
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Carlson's market price remained low throughout the period, reflecting limited public and party support for his nomination bid.
Turning Point USA endorses Vice President J.D. Vance for 2028 presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
At the close of Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest convention the vice‑president publicly refused to set “red‑line” purity tests and, more importantly, Turning Point’s CEO Erika Kirk endorsed Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination. The endorsement gave Vance a major grassroots boost in early primary states and sparked a 27‑point jump in his market price from 29 % to 56 % Yes.
Early polls show JD Vance leading GOP 2028 nomination race
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
Initial polling in July 2025 positioned Vice President JD Vance as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, with significant leads over other candidates, driving a sharp increase in his market probability from 29% to over 50%.
Donald Trump endorses J.D. Vance as likely 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Trump publicly endorsed J.D. Vance as the most likely candidate to be the Republican nominee in 2028, significantly boosting Vance's market probability and causing sharp declines for other candidates like Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr.
Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha Vance announce fourth child
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
The announcement of Vance's fourth child generated positive media coverage and aligned with his pro-family messaging, contributing to a significant price increase in his market.
Ron DeSantis suffers major drop in support after poor Iowa caucus showing
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
DeSantis placed second in the Iowa caucuses with only 21.23% of the vote, losing badly to Trump by 30 points. This result was seen as damaging to his campaign and led to a sharp market price drop for his 2028 nomination chances.
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