Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs an $80-85 million opening weekend for "Project Hail Mary," driven by early industry tracking from Deadline Hollywood and Box Office Pro, which peg the Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation in that precise range based on comparable star vehicles like "The Martian" (inflation-adjusted) and Gosling's post-"Barbie" box office heat. The Andy Weir bestseller's fanbase, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's animation-to-live-action success, and robust first-trailer metrics—over 10 million YouTube views in days—bolster this frontrunner positioning amid light March 2026 competition. Realistic upsets could stem from test screening leaks sparking negative word-of-mouth, a release date shift into a busier frame, or broader market softness from economic headwinds eroding family audiences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated"Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office
"Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office
80-85m 100.0%
<50m <1%
50-55m <1%
55-60m <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<50m
No
50-55m
No
55-60m
No
60-65m
No
65-70m
No
70-75m
No
75-80m
No
80-85m
Yes
85-90m
No
>90m
No
80-85m 100.0%
<50m <1%
50-55m <1%
55-60m <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<50m
$0 Vol.
No
50-55m
$0 Vol.
No
55-60m
$0 Vol.
No
60-65m
$0 Vol.
No
65-70m
$0 Vol.
No
70-75m
$0 Vol.
No
75-80m
$0 Vol.
No
80-85m
$0 Vol.
Yes
85-90m
$0 Vol.
No
>90m
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 20 - March 22) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs an $80-85 million opening weekend for "Project Hail Mary," driven by early industry tracking from Deadline Hollywood and Box Office Pro, which peg the Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation in that precise range based on comparable star vehicles like "The Martian" (inflation-adjusted) and Gosling's post-"Barbie" box office heat. The Andy Weir bestseller's fanbase, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's animation-to-live-action success, and robust first-trailer metrics—over 10 million YouTube views in days—bolster this frontrunner positioning amid light March 2026 competition. Realistic upsets could stem from test screening leaks sparking negative word-of-mouth, a release date shift into a busier frame, or broader market softness from economic headwinds eroding family audiences.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 20 - March 22) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 23, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 20 - March 22) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs an $80-85 million opening weekend for "Project Hail Mary," driven by early industry tracking from Deadline Hollywood and Box Office Pro, which peg the Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation in that precise range based on comparable star vehicles like "The Martian" (inflation-adjusted) and Gosling's post-"Barbie" box office heat. The Andy Weir bestseller's fanbase, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's animation-to-live-action success, and robust first-trailer metrics—over 10 million YouTube views in days—bolster this frontrunner positioning amid light March 2026 competition. Realistic upsets could stem from test screening leaks sparking negative word-of-mouth, a release date shift into a busier frame, or broader market softness from economic headwinds eroding family audiences.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 20 - March 22) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 23, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs an $80-85 million opening weekend for "Project Hail Mary," driven by early industry tracking from Deadline Hollywood and Box Office Pro, which peg the Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation in that precise range based on comparable star vehicles like "The Martian" (inflation-adjusted) and Gosling's post-"Barbie" box office heat. The Andy Weir bestseller's fanbase, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's animation-to-live-action success, and robust first-trailer metrics—over 10 million YouTube views in days—bolster this frontrunner positioning amid light March 2026 competition. Realistic upsets could stem from test screening leaks sparking negative word-of-mouth, a release date shift into a busier frame, or broader market softness from economic headwinds eroding family audiences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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