Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary" dominates trader sentiment with 100% implied probability on exceeding $54 million in its second domestic weekend, fueled by a stellar -32% hold from its record-breaking $80 million-plus opening—the biggest of 2026 and Amazon MGM's best ever. Exceptional word-of-mouth, premium large format (PLF) and IMAX screen dominance, and robust international performance pushing global cume past $300 million underpin this consensus, as Friday grosses hit $14.6 million amid light competition from dropping holdovers like "Hoppers" and flop newcomer "They Will Kill You." Realistic upsets, though improbable post-Saturday strength, could stem from adverse weather in key markets or unexpected tracking revisions, but strong legs suggest billion-dollar potential ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated"Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office
>54m 100.0%
<42m <1%
42-46m <1%
46-50m <1%
$191,709 Vol.
$191,709 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
<42m
No
42-46m
No
46-50m
No
50-54m
No
>54m
Yes
>54m 100.0%
<42m <1%
42-46m <1%
46-50m <1%
$191,709 Vol.
$191,709 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
<42m
$13,460 Vol.
No
42-46m
$44,593 Vol.
No
46-50m
$34,649 Vol.
No
50-54m
$63,228 Vol.
No
>54m
$35,778 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1993768961/weekend/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary" dominates trader sentiment with 100% implied probability on exceeding $54 million in its second domestic weekend, fueled by a stellar -32% hold from its record-breaking $80 million-plus opening—the biggest of 2026 and Amazon MGM's best ever. Exceptional word-of-mouth, premium large format (PLF) and IMAX screen dominance, and robust international performance pushing global cume past $300 million underpin this consensus, as Friday grosses hit $14.6 million amid light competition from dropping holdovers like "Hoppers" and flop newcomer "They Will Kill You." Realistic upsets, though improbable post-Saturday strength, could stem from adverse weather in key markets or unexpected tracking revisions, but strong legs suggest billion-dollar potential ahead.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1993768961/weekend/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$191,709End Date
Mar 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1993768961/weekend/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary" dominates trader sentiment with 100% implied probability on exceeding $54 million in its second domestic weekend, fueled by a stellar -32% hold from its record-breaking $80 million-plus opening—the biggest of 2026 and Amazon MGM's best ever. Exceptional word-of-mouth, premium large format (PLF) and IMAX screen dominance, and robust international performance pushing global cume past $300 million underpin this consensus, as Friday grosses hit $14.6 million amid light competition from dropping holdovers like "Hoppers" and flop newcomer "They Will Kill You." Realistic upsets, though improbable post-Saturday strength, could stem from adverse weather in key markets or unexpected tracking revisions, but strong legs suggest billion-dollar potential ahead.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1993768961/weekend/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$191,709End Date
Mar 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary" dominates trader sentiment with 100% implied probability on exceeding $54 million in its second domestic weekend, fueled by a stellar -32% hold from its record-breaking $80 million-plus opening—the biggest of 2026 and Amazon MGM's best ever. Exceptional word-of-mouth, premium large format (PLF) and IMAX screen dominance, and robust international performance pushing global cume past $300 million underpin this consensus, as Friday grosses hit $14.6 million amid light competition from dropping holdovers like "Hoppers" and flop newcomer "They Will Kill You." Realistic upsets, though improbable post-Saturday strength, could stem from adverse weather in key markets or unexpected tracking revisions, but strong legs suggest billion-dollar potential ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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