Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs 40-45mm total precipitation in Seoul for March 2026, with 98.9% implied probability, driven by verified daily rain gauge measurements from the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) Seoul observatory accumulating approximately 42mm through scattered frontal systems and spring showers. Key contributors included heavier falls of over 10mm on March 5 amid widespread rain-snow events and 8mm on March 17, supplemented by light precipitation early and late in the month, aligning closely with the March climatological average of 37-50mm influenced by transitioning East Asian weather patterns. This positioning reflects strong evidence from official observational data, with minimal uncertainty; only a rare post-audit correction by KMA—such as recalibrating station sensors—could realistically shift the total outside this bin before final monthly resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPrecipitation in Seoul in March?
Precipitation in Seoul in March?
40-45mm 99.2%
<30mm <1%
35-40mm <1%
30-35mm <1%
$51,083 Vol.
$51,083 Vol.
<30mm
1%
30-35mm
<1%
35-40mm
<1%
40-45mm
99%
45-50mm
<1%
50-55mm
<1%
55-60mm
<1%
60mm+
<1%
40-45mm 99.2%
<30mm <1%
35-40mm <1%
30-35mm <1%
$51,083 Vol.
$51,083 Vol.
<30mm
1%
30-35mm
<1%
35-40mm
<1%
40-45mm
99%
45-50mm
<1%
50-55mm
<1%
55-60mm
<1%
60mm+
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of March at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of March at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs 40-45mm total precipitation in Seoul for March 2026, with 98.9% implied probability, driven by verified daily rain gauge measurements from the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) Seoul observatory accumulating approximately 42mm through scattered frontal systems and spring showers. Key contributors included heavier falls of over 10mm on March 5 amid widespread rain-snow events and 8mm on March 17, supplemented by light precipitation early and late in the month, aligning closely with the March climatological average of 37-50mm influenced by transitioning East Asian weather patterns. This positioning reflects strong evidence from official observational data, with minimal uncertainty; only a rare post-audit correction by KMA—such as recalibrating station sensors—could realistically shift the total outside this bin before final monthly resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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