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Precipitation in London in March?

Market icon

Precipitation in London in March?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

20-30mm 62.3%

30-40mm 16%

50-60mm 9.1%

40-50mm 8%

Polymarket
NEW

20-30mm 62.3%

30-40mm 16%

50-60mm 9.1%

40-50mm 8%

Polymarket
NEW

<20mm

$3,890 Vol.

8%

20-30mm

$723 Vol.

57%

30-40mm

$409 Vol.

20%

40-50mm

$378 Vol.

8%

50-60mm

$372 Vol.

19%

60-70mm

$439 Vol.

4%

70mm+

$973 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in March, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for March 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of March 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. If relevant data is not released by May 7, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 20-30mm of precipitation in London during March (56.6% implied probability), driven by the UK Met Office's latest seasonal outlook signaling a higher likelihood of below-average rainfall across southern England. This positioning stems from recent ensemble model runs showing persistent high-pressure influences potentially suppressing Atlantic moisture inflow, amid a neutral-to-positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern that historically correlates with drier springs. March climatological normals hover around 40-45mm based on 1991-2020 data, but current forecasts highlight reduced storm track activity near the UK. Uncertainty remains, with potential for wetter scenarios if NAO shifts negative; watch for Met Office's early March update and weekly model refreshes for shifts in implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in March, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for March 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of March 2026 is released.

If the relevant data is not available by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. If relevant data is not released by May 7, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$7,184
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in March, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for March 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of March 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. If relevant data is not released by May 7, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 20-30mm of precipitation in London during March (56.6% implied probability), driven by the UK Met Office's latest seasonal outlook signaling a higher likelihood of below-average rainfall across southern England. This positioning stems from recent ensemble model runs showing persistent high-pressure influences potentially suppressing Atlantic moisture inflow, amid a neutral-to-positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern that historically correlates with drier springs. March climatological normals hover around 40-45mm based on 1991-2020 data, but current forecasts highlight reduced storm track activity near the UK. Uncertainty remains, with potential for wetter scenarios if NAO shifts negative; watch for Met Office's early March update and weekly model refreshes for shifts in implied odds.

Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 20-30mm of precipitation in London during March (56.6% implied probability), driven by the UK Met Office's latest seasonal outlook signaling a higher likelihood of below-average rainfall across southern England. This positioning stems from recent ensemble model runs showing persistent high-pressure influences potentially suppressing Atlantic moisture inflow, amid a neutral-to-positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern that historically correlates with drier springs. March climatological normals hover around 40-45mm based on 1991-2020 data, but current forecasts highlight reduced storm track activity near the UK. Uncertainty remains, with potential for wetter scenarios if NAO shifts negative; watch for Met Office's early March update and weekly model refreshes for shifts in implied odds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Precipitation in London in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "20-30mm" at 57%, followed by "30-40mm" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Precipitation in London in March?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Precipitation in London in March?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Precipitation in London in March?" is "20-30mm" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30-40mm" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Precipitation in London in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.