Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Schoof - Netherlands PM 83%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 9%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 1.6%

Trump - USA President 1.4%

$4,373,123 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,373,123
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Schoof - Netherlands PM 83%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 9%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 1.6%

Trump - USA President 1.4%

$4,373,123 Vol.

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$182,597 Vol.

83%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

$190,843 Vol.

9%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$193,226 Vol.

2%

Trump - USA President

$208,630 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$152,491 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$145,541 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$164,109 Vol.

1%

Starmer - UK PM

$141,478 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$147,273 Vol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$215,904 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$148,542 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$126,645 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$129,372 Vol.

<1%

Orbán - Hungary PM

$170,093 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$140,691 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$165,112 Vol.

<1%

None before 2027

$157,033 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$177,761 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$140,493 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$168,128 Vol.

<1%

Petro - Colombia President

$151,449 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$168,066 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$173,187 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$171,600 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$163,660 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$147,962 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$139,391 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume
$4,373,123
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.