Amid the escalating US-Iran conflict since late February, Iran has directly targeted commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging three cargo ships on March 11 and 17 others since then through mine-laying and strikes after US destruction of Iranian vessels, effectively imposing tolls and restricting passage without approval. European officials report Iran now urging Houthis—after their ballistic missile attacks on Israeli sites last week—to resume Red Sea assaults via the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if US ground operations advance. Saudi Arabia's upgraded Yanbu pipeline bypasses some Hormuz flows, but traders monitor proxy escalations, diplomatic signals from Qatar talks, and Trump's oil threats as pivotal for further verified hits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
99%
April 2
23%
April 3
22%
April 4
19%
April 5
24%
April 6
22%
April 7
31%
April 8
42%
April 9
37%
April 10
35%
$8,094 Vol.
April 1
$5,999 Vol.
99%
April 2
$1,345 Vol.
23%
April 3
$522 Vol.
22%
April 4
$11 Vol.
19%
April 5
$26 Vol.
24%
April 6
$84 Vol.
22%
April 7
$70 Vol.
31%
April 8
$0 Vol.
42%
April 9
$11 Vol.
37%
April 10
$26 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the escalating US-Iran conflict since late February, Iran has directly targeted commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging three cargo ships on March 11 and 17 others since then through mine-laying and strikes after US destruction of Iranian vessels, effectively imposing tolls and restricting passage without approval. European officials report Iran now urging Houthis—after their ballistic missile attacks on Israeli sites last week—to resume Red Sea assaults via the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if US ground operations advance. Saudi Arabia's upgraded Yanbu pipeline bypasses some Hormuz flows, but traders monitor proxy escalations, diplomatic signals from Qatar talks, and Trump's oil threats as pivotal for further verified hits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$8,094End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the escalating US-Iran conflict since late February, Iran has directly targeted commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging three cargo ships on March 11 and 17 others since then through mine-laying and strikes after US destruction of Iranian vessels, effectively imposing tolls and restricting passage without approval. European officials report Iran now urging Houthis—after their ballistic missile attacks on Israeli sites last week—to resume Red Sea assaults via the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if US ground operations advance. Saudi Arabia's upgraded Yanbu pipeline bypasses some Hormuz flows, but traders monitor proxy escalations, diplomatic signals from Qatar talks, and Trump's oil threats as pivotal for further verified hits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$8,094End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the escalating US-Iran conflict since late February, Iran has directly targeted commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging three cargo ships on March 11 and 17 others since then through mine-laying and strikes after US destruction of Iranian vessels, effectively imposing tolls and restricting passage without approval. European officials report Iran now urging Houthis—after their ballistic missile attacks on Israeli sites last week—to resume Red Sea assaults via the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if US ground operations advance. Saudi Arabia's upgraded Yanbu pipeline bypasses some Hormuz flows, but traders monitor proxy escalations, diplomatic signals from Qatar talks, and Trump's oil threats as pivotal for further verified hits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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