Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, Iranian forces conducted a confirmed kinetic strike on a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman on March 29 and hit a Qatar-leased tanker, Aqua 1, with a cruise missile on April 1, marking direct maritime aggressions using drones, missiles, and kamikaze boats. These follow US strikes sinking Iran's largest drone carrier, IRIS Shahid Bagheri, on March 6, and multiple vessel attacks on March 11 that suppressed Hormuz traffic. While Houthi allies disrupt Red Sea shipping at Iran's urging, this market tracks Iranian forces' daily kinetic actions or seizures in international waters. Traders monitor ongoing airstrikes, naval patrols, and potential ceasefire talks for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
96%
April 2
42%
April 3
35%
April 4
18%
April 5
11%
April 6
22%
April 7
26%
April 8
42%
April 9
37%
April 10
33%
$9,282 Vol.
April 1
$6,927 Vol.
96%
April 2
$1,405 Vol.
42%
April 3
$622 Vol.
35%
April 4
$11 Vol.
18%
April 5
$76 Vol.
11%
April 6
$84 Vol.
22%
April 7
$99 Vol.
26%
April 8
$0 Vol.
42%
April 9
$11 Vol.
37%
April 10
$48 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, Iranian forces conducted a confirmed kinetic strike on a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman on March 29 and hit a Qatar-leased tanker, Aqua 1, with a cruise missile on April 1, marking direct maritime aggressions using drones, missiles, and kamikaze boats. These follow US strikes sinking Iran's largest drone carrier, IRIS Shahid Bagheri, on March 6, and multiple vessel attacks on March 11 that suppressed Hormuz traffic. While Houthi allies disrupt Red Sea shipping at Iran's urging, this market tracks Iranian forces' daily kinetic actions or seizures in international waters. Traders monitor ongoing airstrikes, naval patrols, and potential ceasefire talks for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$9,282End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, Iranian forces conducted a confirmed kinetic strike on a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman on March 29 and hit a Qatar-leased tanker, Aqua 1, with a cruise missile on April 1, marking direct maritime aggressions using drones, missiles, and kamikaze boats. These follow US strikes sinking Iran's largest drone carrier, IRIS Shahid Bagheri, on March 6, and multiple vessel attacks on March 11 that suppressed Hormuz traffic. While Houthi allies disrupt Red Sea shipping at Iran's urging, this market tracks Iranian forces' daily kinetic actions or seizures in international waters. Traders monitor ongoing airstrikes, naval patrols, and potential ceasefire talks for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$9,282End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, Iranian forces conducted a confirmed kinetic strike on a US-linked logistics vessel near Oman on March 29 and hit a Qatar-leased tanker, Aqua 1, with a cruise missile on April 1, marking direct maritime aggressions using drones, missiles, and kamikaze boats. These follow US strikes sinking Iran's largest drone carrier, IRIS Shahid Bagheri, on March 6, and multiple vessel attacks on March 11 that suppressed Hormuz traffic. While Houthi allies disrupt Red Sea shipping at Iran's urging, this market tracks Iranian forces' daily kinetic actions or seizures in international waters. Traders monitor ongoing airstrikes, naval patrols, and potential ceasefire talks for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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