Trader consensus on the Hungary parliamentary election's 2nd place heavily favors Fidesz-KDNP at 69%, reflecting expectations that challenger TISZA will claim the most seats on April 12, relegating the incumbent alliance to runner-up status. Recent independent polls, including 21 Research Centre's March survey showing TISZA at 56% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 37% among decided voters and Závecz Research's 51%-38% gap, have widened TISZA's lead, consolidating anti-incumbent sentiment amid corruption allegations and frozen EU funds. Pro-government polls like Nézőpont project Fidesz-KDNP retaining a national list edge and 66 districts, but markets align more with opposition-leaning aggregators. Hungary's mixed system—106 single-member districts plus proportional lists—amplifies unified opposition turnout, marginalizing smaller parties like MSZP and DK. With nine days until polls close, final undecided voters and district math remain pivotal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFidesz-KDNP 69%
TISZA 31%
MSZP <1%
LMP <1%
$86,159 Vol.
$86,159 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz-KDNP
69%
TISZA
31%
MSZP
1%
LMP
<1%
DK
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
Momentum
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 69%
TISZA 31%
MSZP <1%
LMP <1%
$86,159 Vol.
$86,159 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz-KDNP
$16,671 Vol.
69%
TISZA
$15,767 Vol.
31%
MSZP
$13,764 Vol.
1%
LMP
$2,596 Vol.
<1%
DK
$2,962 Vol.
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$27,148 Vol.
<1%
Momentum
$2,271 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$2,536 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$2,447 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Trader consensus on the Hungary parliamentary election's 2nd place heavily favors Fidesz-KDNP at 69%, reflecting expectations that challenger TISZA will claim the most seats on April 12, relegating the incumbent alliance to runner-up status. Recent independent polls, including 21 Research Centre's March survey showing TISZA at 56% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 37% among decided voters and Závecz Research's 51%-38% gap, have widened TISZA's lead, consolidating anti-incumbent sentiment amid corruption allegations and frozen EU funds. Pro-government polls like Nézőpont project Fidesz-KDNP retaining a national list edge and 66 districts, but markets align more with opposition-leaning aggregators. Hungary's mixed system—106 single-member districts plus proportional lists—amplifies unified opposition turnout, marginalizing smaller parties like MSZP and DK. With nine days until polls close, final undecided voters and district math remain pivotal.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ET
Volume
$86,159End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Trader consensus on the Hungary parliamentary election's 2nd place heavily favors Fidesz-KDNP at 69%, reflecting expectations that challenger TISZA will claim the most seats on April 12, relegating the incumbent alliance to runner-up status. Recent independent polls, including 21 Research Centre's March survey showing TISZA at 56% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 37% among decided voters and Závecz Research's 51%-38% gap, have widened TISZA's lead, consolidating anti-incumbent sentiment amid corruption allegations and frozen EU funds. Pro-government polls like Nézőpont project Fidesz-KDNP retaining a national list edge and 66 districts, but markets align more with opposition-leaning aggregators. Hungary's mixed system—106 single-member districts plus proportional lists—amplifies unified opposition turnout, marginalizing smaller parties like MSZP and DK. With nine days until polls close, final undecided voters and district math remain pivotal.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
Volume
$86,159End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Hungary parliamentary election's 2nd place heavily favors Fidesz-KDNP at 69%, reflecting expectations that challenger TISZA will claim the most seats on April 12, relegating the incumbent alliance to runner-up status. Recent independent polls, including 21 Research Centre's March survey showing TISZA at 56% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 37% among decided voters and Závecz Research's 51%-38% gap, have widened TISZA's lead, consolidating anti-incumbent sentiment amid corruption allegations and frozen EU funds. Pro-government polls like Nézőpont project Fidesz-KDNP retaining a national list edge and 66 districts, but markets align more with opposition-leaning aggregators. Hungary's mixed system—106 single-member districts plus proportional lists—amplifies unified opposition turnout, marginalizing smaller parties like MSZP and DK. With nine days until polls close, final undecided voters and district math remain pivotal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
96%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
70%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
76%
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