Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 58%, with 15-19 close behind at 30%, driven by maritime tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic showing daily commercial vessel crossings averaging 3-4 amid the ongoing Iran war. Iranian forces' attacks on merchant ships since late February— including incidents on March 11—have imposed a de facto blockade, slashing traffic 95% from pre-conflict norms of around 120 vessels daily, allowing only selective passages like sanctioned oil tankers hugging the Iranian coast. Recent reports confirm low activity, such as two crossings on March 22 and seven on March 21, with no de-escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs to boost volumes, though slight upticks occurred mid-week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
20-24 69.2%
15-19 28.0%
35-39 1.7%
25-29 <1%
$468,797 Vol.
$468,797 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<10
<1%
10-14
<1%
15-19
33%
20-24
58%
25-29
<1%
30-34
<1%
35-39
2%
40-44
<1%
45+
<1%
20-24 69.2%
15-19 28.0%
35-39 1.7%
25-29 <1%
$468,797 Vol.
$468,797 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<10
$55,929 Vol.
<1%
10-14
$42,904 Vol.
<1%
15-19
$66,813 Vol.
33%
20-24
$48,736 Vol.
58%
25-29
$29,860 Vol.
<1%
30-34
$30,082 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$39,814 Vol.
2%
40-44
$50,485 Vol.
<1%
45+
$104,216 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 58%, with 15-19 close behind at 30%, driven by maritime tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic showing daily commercial vessel crossings averaging 3-4 amid the ongoing Iran war. Iranian forces' attacks on merchant ships since late February— including incidents on March 11—have imposed a de facto blockade, slashing traffic 95% from pre-conflict norms of around 120 vessels daily, allowing only selective passages like sanctioned oil tankers hugging the Iranian coast. Recent reports confirm low activity, such as two crossings on March 22 and seven on March 21, with no de-escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs to boost volumes, though slight upticks occurred mid-week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$468,797End Date
Mar 23, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 58%, with 15-19 close behind at 30%, driven by maritime tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic showing daily commercial vessel crossings averaging 3-4 amid the ongoing Iran war. Iranian forces' attacks on merchant ships since late February— including incidents on March 11—have imposed a de facto blockade, slashing traffic 95% from pre-conflict norms of around 120 vessels daily, allowing only selective passages like sanctioned oil tankers hugging the Iranian coast. Recent reports confirm low activity, such as two crossings on March 22 and seven on March 21, with no de-escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs to boost volumes, though slight upticks occurred mid-week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$468,797End Date
Mar 23, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 58%, with 15-19 close behind at 30%, driven by maritime tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic showing daily commercial vessel crossings averaging 3-4 amid the ongoing Iran war. Iranian forces' attacks on merchant ships since late February— including incidents on March 11—have imposed a de facto blockade, slashing traffic 95% from pre-conflict norms of around 120 vessels daily, allowing only selective passages like sanctioned oil tankers hugging the Iranian coast. Recent reports confirm low activity, such as two crossings on March 22 and seven on March 21, with no de-escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs to boost volumes, though slight upticks occurred mid-week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions