MetService's latest forecast, issued late April 4, projects a daytime high of 20–21°C at Wellington International Airport on April 7 under mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of afternoon showers and strong easterlies, driving trader consensus toward 21°C or higher (54.5% implied probability) and exactly 20°C (26.5%). This above-average outlook—historical April highs average 16–17°C—stems from a lingering high-pressure ridge delivering mild air amid ENSO-neutral conditions, as per NIWA's seasonal guidance. Cloud cover and onshore winds introduce uncertainty, potentially capping temperatures at 19–20°C if showers intensify, while clearer intervals could push beyond 21°C. Updated model runs expected April 6 may refine probabilities as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on April 7?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 7?
21°C or higher 53%
20°C 24%
19°C 16%
18°C 7.6%
$13,877 Vol.
$13,877 Vol.
Apr 7, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
8%
19°C
16%
20°C
24%
21°C or higher
53%
21°C or higher 53%
20°C 24%
19°C 16%
18°C 7.6%
$13,877 Vol.
$13,877 Vol.
Apr 7, 2026
11°C or below
$2,410 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,713 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,808 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$3,079 Vol.
1%
15°C
$1,130 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$420 Vol.
1%
17°C
$498 Vol.
1%
18°C
$464 Vol.
8%
19°C
$661 Vol.
16%
20°C
$456 Vol.
24%
21°C or higher
$1,238 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast, issued late April 4, projects a daytime high of 20–21°C at Wellington International Airport on April 7 under mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of afternoon showers and strong easterlies, driving trader consensus toward 21°C or higher (54.5% implied probability) and exactly 20°C (26.5%). This above-average outlook—historical April highs average 16–17°C—stems from a lingering high-pressure ridge delivering mild air amid ENSO-neutral conditions, as per NIWA's seasonal guidance. Cloud cover and onshore winds introduce uncertainty, potentially capping temperatures at 19–20°C if showers intensify, while clearer intervals could push beyond 21°C. Updated model runs expected April 6 may refine probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$13,877End Date
Apr 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast, issued late April 4, projects a daytime high of 20–21°C at Wellington International Airport on April 7 under mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of afternoon showers and strong easterlies, driving trader consensus toward 21°C or higher (54.5% implied probability) and exactly 20°C (26.5%). This above-average outlook—historical April highs average 16–17°C—stems from a lingering high-pressure ridge delivering mild air amid ENSO-neutral conditions, as per NIWA's seasonal guidance. Cloud cover and onshore winds introduce uncertainty, potentially capping temperatures at 19–20°C if showers intensify, while clearer intervals could push beyond 21°C. Updated model runs expected April 6 may refine probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,877End Date
Apr 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...MetService's latest forecast, issued late April 4, projects a daytime high of 20–21°C at Wellington International Airport on April 7 under mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of afternoon showers and strong easterlies, driving trader consensus toward 21°C or higher (54.5% implied probability) and exactly 20°C (26.5%). This above-average outlook—historical April highs average 16–17°C—stems from a lingering high-pressure ridge delivering mild air amid ENSO-neutral conditions, as per NIWA's seasonal guidance. Cloud cover and onshore winds introduce uncertainty, potentially capping temperatures at 19–20°C if showers intensify, while clearer intervals could push beyond 21°C. Updated model runs expected April 6 may refine probabilities as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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