Market icon

Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

11°C 48%

10°C 25%

12°C 14%

9°C 4.0%

Polymarket

$36,142 Vol.

11°C 48%

10°C 25%

12°C 14%

9°C 4.0%

Polymarket

$36,142 Vol.

6°C

$6,136 Vol.

<1%

7°C

$1,718 Vol.

<1%

8°C

$3,334 Vol.

1%

9°C

$3,137 Vol.

4%

10°C

$2,864 Vol.

25%

11°C

$2,920 Vol.

48%

12°C

$2,450 Vol.

14%

13°C

$2,917 Vol.

2%

14°C

$3,630 Vol.

1%

15°C or higher

$4,394 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, as confirmed by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), show a consensus peak high of around 11°C for Warsaw on March 27, driving trader sentiment toward this outcome at 47.5% implied probability amid mild spring conditions with westerly flows bringing Atlantic air masses. Recent 24-hour model runs indicate daytime maximums of 10-12°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, consistent with the past week's averages near 10°C and no disruptive cold fronts or warm advection expected. 10°C (24.5%) and 12°C (14%) remain viable given typical model spread and urban heat effects in Warsaw, with final hourly observations determining resolution as uncertainties narrow closer to event time.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$36,142
End Date
Mar 27, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:17 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, as confirmed by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), show a consensus peak high of around 11°C for Warsaw on March 27, driving trader sentiment toward this outcome at 47.5% implied probability amid mild spring conditions with westerly flows bringing Atlantic air masses. Recent 24-hour model runs indicate daytime maximums of 10-12°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, consistent with the past week's averages near 10°C and no disruptive cold fronts or warm advection expected. 10°C (24.5%) and 12°C (14%) remain viable given typical model spread and urban heat effects in Warsaw, with final hourly observations determining resolution as uncertainties narrow closer to event time.

Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, as confirmed by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), show a consensus peak high of around 11°C for Warsaw on March 27, driving trader sentiment toward this outcome at 47.5% implied probability amid mild spring conditions with westerly flows bringing Atlantic air masses. Recent 24-hour model runs indicate daytime maximums of 10-12°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, consistent with the past week's averages near 10°C and no disruptive cold fronts or warm advection expected. 10°C (24.5%) and 12°C (14%) remain viable given typical model spread and urban heat effects in Warsaw, with final hourly observations determining resolution as uncertainties narrow closer to event time.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "11°C" at 48%, followed by "10°C" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?" has generated $36.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?" is "11°C" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "10°C" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.