Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's highest temperature on April 2, with KMA, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles centering implied probabilities around 13–15°C outcomes at 22–26% each. Latest model runs project daytime highs of 12–14°C amid anticipated mostly cloudy skies and moderate southwest winds limiting solar heating, a dip from today's observed 17°C peak under clearer conditions. Early April climatology typically sees highs of 15–17°C, but spring frontal variability and slight ensemble spread—ECMWF leaning cooler, GFS slightly warmer—keep outcomes closely matched. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing and afternoon cloud evolution; monitor KMA's short-range update later today for refined guidance ahead of resolution via official Seoul station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
14°C 29%
15°C 27%
13°C 22%
12°C 12%
$64,756 Vol.
$64,756 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
6°C or below
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
6%
12°C
12%
13°C
22%
14°C
29%
15°C
27%
16°C or higher
12%
14°C 29%
15°C 27%
13°C 22%
12°C 12%
$64,756 Vol.
$64,756 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
6°C or below
$22,081 Vol.
1%
7°C
$3,618 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$3,865 Vol.
1%
9°C
$5,594 Vol.
1%
10°C
$5,438 Vol.
1%
11°C
$4,732 Vol.
6%
12°C
$2,833 Vol.
12%
13°C
$3,459 Vol.
22%
14°C
$2,614 Vol.
29%
15°C
$3,214 Vol.
27%
16°C or higher
$7,733 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's highest temperature on April 2, with KMA, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles centering implied probabilities around 13–15°C outcomes at 22–26% each. Latest model runs project daytime highs of 12–14°C amid anticipated mostly cloudy skies and moderate southwest winds limiting solar heating, a dip from today's observed 17°C peak under clearer conditions. Early April climatology typically sees highs of 15–17°C, but spring frontal variability and slight ensemble spread—ECMWF leaning cooler, GFS slightly warmer—keep outcomes closely matched. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing and afternoon cloud evolution; monitor KMA's short-range update later today for refined guidance ahead of resolution via official Seoul station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Volume
$64,756End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's highest temperature on April 2, with KMA, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles centering implied probabilities around 13–15°C outcomes at 22–26% each. Latest model runs project daytime highs of 12–14°C amid anticipated mostly cloudy skies and moderate southwest winds limiting solar heating, a dip from today's observed 17°C peak under clearer conditions. Early April climatology typically sees highs of 15–17°C, but spring frontal variability and slight ensemble spread—ECMWF leaning cooler, GFS slightly warmer—keep outcomes closely matched. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing and afternoon cloud evolution; monitor KMA's short-range update later today for refined guidance ahead of resolution via official Seoul station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$64,756End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's highest temperature on April 2, with KMA, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles centering implied probabilities around 13–15°C outcomes at 22–26% each. Latest model runs project daytime highs of 12–14°C amid anticipated mostly cloudy skies and moderate southwest winds limiting solar heating, a dip from today's observed 17°C peak under clearer conditions. Early April climatology typically sees highs of 15–17°C, but spring frontal variability and slight ensemble spread—ECMWF leaning cooler, GFS slightly warmer—keep outcomes closely matched. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing and afternoon cloud evolution; monitor KMA's short-range update later today for refined guidance ahead of resolution via official Seoul station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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