Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C (29.5%) and 15°C (29.0%) as the highest temperature in Seoul on April 2, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) mid-term forecast updated March 30 projecting a 16°C high under mostly cloudy skies, tempered by ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF showing a spread of 13–16°C due to uncertainty in northerly wind strength and afternoon cloud development. Early April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 14–16°C amid continental spring variability influenced by cold air masses from Siberia versus warming southerlies. Key differentiators include frontal timing—delayed clearing could cap at 13–14°C, while earlier sunshine boosts to 15–16°C— with KMA's short-range update expected later today providing resolution clarity ahead of tomorrow's measurement at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
14°C 29%
15°C 22%
13°C 21%
12°C 14%
$70,250 Vol.
$70,250 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
6°C or below
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
6%
12°C
14%
13°C
21%
14°C
29%
15°C
22%
16°C or higher
9%
14°C 29%
15°C 22%
13°C 21%
12°C 14%
$70,250 Vol.
$70,250 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
6°C or below
$22,489 Vol.
1%
7°C
$4,032 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$4,186 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$6,002 Vol.
1%
10°C
$5,821 Vol.
2%
11°C
$5,210 Vol.
6%
12°C
$3,356 Vol.
14%
13°C
$3,965 Vol.
21%
14°C
$3,103 Vol.
29%
15°C
$3,989 Vol.
22%
16°C or higher
$8,214 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C (29.5%) and 15°C (29.0%) as the highest temperature in Seoul on April 2, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) mid-term forecast updated March 30 projecting a 16°C high under mostly cloudy skies, tempered by ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF showing a spread of 13–16°C due to uncertainty in northerly wind strength and afternoon cloud development. Early April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 14–16°C amid continental spring variability influenced by cold air masses from Siberia versus warming southerlies. Key differentiators include frontal timing—delayed clearing could cap at 13–14°C, while earlier sunshine boosts to 15–16°C— with KMA's short-range update expected later today providing resolution clarity ahead of tomorrow's measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Volume
$70,250End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C (29.5%) and 15°C (29.0%) as the highest temperature in Seoul on April 2, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) mid-term forecast updated March 30 projecting a 16°C high under mostly cloudy skies, tempered by ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF showing a spread of 13–16°C due to uncertainty in northerly wind strength and afternoon cloud development. Early April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 14–16°C amid continental spring variability influenced by cold air masses from Siberia versus warming southerlies. Key differentiators include frontal timing—delayed clearing could cap at 13–14°C, while earlier sunshine boosts to 15–16°C— with KMA's short-range update expected later today providing resolution clarity ahead of tomorrow's measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$70,250End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C (29.5%) and 15°C (29.0%) as the highest temperature in Seoul on April 2, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) mid-term forecast updated March 30 projecting a 16°C high under mostly cloudy skies, tempered by ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF showing a spread of 13–16°C due to uncertainty in northerly wind strength and afternoon cloud development. Early April climatology supports this range, with historical highs averaging 14–16°C amid continental spring variability influenced by cold air masses from Siberia versus warming southerlies. Key differentiators include frontal timing—delayed clearing could cap at 13–14°C, while earlier sunshine boosts to 15–16°C— with KMA's short-range update expected later today providing resolution clarity ahead of tomorrow's measurement at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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