National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a high of 77°F in the NYC area today, March 31, driving the market-implied 99.1% probability for 74°F or higher at LaGuardia Airport, the resolution station. Morning observations already reached the low 60s°F under partly cloudy skies, building on yesterday's 67°F high amid a warming trend fueled by southerly flow and mild Atlantic air mass, with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF supporting peak afternoon heating. While inherent forecast uncertainty exists—such as increased cloud cover from chance showers or unexpected frontal timing potentially capping temperatures in the low 70s°F—current conditions and minimal wind shear strongly favor the high-end outcome, with hourly LaGuardia METARs providing real-time tracking until midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on March 31?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 31?
74°F or higher 99.2%
72-73°F 1.0%
70-71°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$387,046 Vol.
$387,046 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74°F or higher
99%
74°F or higher 99.2%
72-73°F 1.0%
70-71°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$387,046 Vol.
$387,046 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
64-65°F
$22,812 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$24,269 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$23,416 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$35,762 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$39,976 Vol.
1%
74°F or higher
$71,018 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a high of 77°F in the NYC area today, March 31, driving the market-implied 99.1% probability for 74°F or higher at LaGuardia Airport, the resolution station. Morning observations already reached the low 60s°F under partly cloudy skies, building on yesterday's 67°F high amid a warming trend fueled by southerly flow and mild Atlantic air mass, with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF supporting peak afternoon heating. While inherent forecast uncertainty exists—such as increased cloud cover from chance showers or unexpected frontal timing potentially capping temperatures in the low 70s°F—current conditions and minimal wind shear strongly favor the high-end outcome, with hourly LaGuardia METARs providing real-time tracking until midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Volume
$387,046End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a high of 77°F in the NYC area today, March 31, driving the market-implied 99.1% probability for 74°F or higher at LaGuardia Airport, the resolution station. Morning observations already reached the low 60s°F under partly cloudy skies, building on yesterday's 67°F high amid a warming trend fueled by southerly flow and mild Atlantic air mass, with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF supporting peak afternoon heating. While inherent forecast uncertainty exists—such as increased cloud cover from chance showers or unexpected frontal timing potentially capping temperatures in the low 70s°F—current conditions and minimal wind shear strongly favor the high-end outcome, with hourly LaGuardia METARs providing real-time tracking until midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$387,046End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a high of 77°F in the NYC area today, March 31, driving the market-implied 99.1% probability for 74°F or higher at LaGuardia Airport, the resolution station. Morning observations already reached the low 60s°F under partly cloudy skies, building on yesterday's 67°F high amid a warming trend fueled by southerly flow and mild Atlantic air mass, with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF supporting peak afternoon heating. While inherent forecast uncertainty exists—such as increased cloud cover from chance showers or unexpected frontal timing potentially capping temperatures in the low 70s°F—current conditions and minimal wind shear strongly favor the high-end outcome, with hourly LaGuardia METARs providing real-time tracking until midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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