The National Weather Service's latest forecast for Central Park, New York City, projects a daytime high near 76°F on April 1 under partly sunny skies with light southerly winds, driving trader consensus toward the 76-77°F outcome at 46% implied probability amid a high-pressure ridge ushering unseasonably warm air well above the 56°F climatological normal. Over the past 48 hours, GFS and ECMWF ensemble models have converged on mid-70s peaks, reflecting neutral ENSO patterns and minimal cloud interference, though some runs hint at 78-79°F potential (21.5%) if mixing enhances surface heating. Uncertainty lingers from a possible back-door cold front's position, which could lower readings by up to 10°F per NWS discussions; monitor hourly observations and afternoon forecast updates for resolution as the market nears close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 1?
76-77°F 43%
74-75°F 23%
78-79°F 23%
72-73°F 6.8%
$90,054 Vol.
$90,054 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
23%
76-77°F
43%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
4%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 43%
74-75°F 23%
78-79°F 23%
72-73°F 6.8%
$90,054 Vol.
$90,054 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
69°F or below
$19,660 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$8,943 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$8,774 Vol.
7%
74-75°F
$8,598 Vol.
23%
76-77°F
$5,670 Vol.
43%
78-79°F
$6,894 Vol.
22%
80-81°F
$7,133 Vol.
4%
82-83°F
$5,604 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$4,933 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$4,622 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$9,501 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest forecast for Central Park, New York City, projects a daytime high near 76°F on April 1 under partly sunny skies with light southerly winds, driving trader consensus toward the 76-77°F outcome at 46% implied probability amid a high-pressure ridge ushering unseasonably warm air well above the 56°F climatological normal. Over the past 48 hours, GFS and ECMWF ensemble models have converged on mid-70s peaks, reflecting neutral ENSO patterns and minimal cloud interference, though some runs hint at 78-79°F potential (21.5%) if mixing enhances surface heating. Uncertainty lingers from a possible back-door cold front's position, which could lower readings by up to 10°F per NWS discussions; monitor hourly observations and afternoon forecast updates for resolution as the market nears close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$90,054End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest forecast for Central Park, New York City, projects a daytime high near 76°F on April 1 under partly sunny skies with light southerly winds, driving trader consensus toward the 76-77°F outcome at 46% implied probability amid a high-pressure ridge ushering unseasonably warm air well above the 56°F climatological normal. Over the past 48 hours, GFS and ECMWF ensemble models have converged on mid-70s peaks, reflecting neutral ENSO patterns and minimal cloud interference, though some runs hint at 78-79°F potential (21.5%) if mixing enhances surface heating. Uncertainty lingers from a possible back-door cold front's position, which could lower readings by up to 10°F per NWS discussions; monitor hourly observations and afternoon forecast updates for resolution as the market nears close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$90,054End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The National Weather Service's latest forecast for Central Park, New York City, projects a daytime high near 76°F on April 1 under partly sunny skies with light southerly winds, driving trader consensus toward the 76-77°F outcome at 46% implied probability amid a high-pressure ridge ushering unseasonably warm air well above the 56°F climatological normal. Over the past 48 hours, GFS and ECMWF ensemble models have converged on mid-70s peaks, reflecting neutral ENSO patterns and minimal cloud interference, though some runs hint at 78-79°F potential (21.5%) if mixing enhances surface heating. Uncertainty lingers from a possible back-door cold front's position, which could lower readings by up to 10°F per NWS discussions; monitor hourly observations and afternoon forecast updates for resolution as the market nears close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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