Trader consensus favors a high temperature of 76-77°F (41.5% implied probability) in New York City on April 1, closely tracking the National Weather Service's latest forecast for a peak near 76°F at Central Park under partly sunny skies—a sharp anomaly above the 55-56°F climatological norm. This positioning stems from robust agreement in recent GFS and ECMWF model runs depicting a potent upper-level ridge over the Northeast, driving warm air advection from the south via southerly winds aloft. Over the past 48 hours, ensemble guidance has solidified on mid-70s peaks, rebounding from prior cooler outlooks amid high pressure dominance. Key uncertainties include afternoon boundary layer heating potentially edging toward 78-79°F (18%) or increased mixing capping at 74-75°F (28.5%); track hourly NWS updates and METARs for intraday shifts as resolution nears via official Central Park observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 1?
76-77°F 41%
74-75°F 27%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 10.7%
$91,821 Vol.
$91,821 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
41%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 41%
74-75°F 27%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 10.7%
$91,821 Vol.
$91,821 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
69°F or below
$19,697 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$9,216 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$8,878 Vol.
11%
74-75°F
$8,715 Vol.
27%
76-77°F
$5,706 Vol.
41%
78-79°F
$6,910 Vol.
18%
80-81°F
$7,143 Vol.
5%
82-83°F
$6,677 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$4,943 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$4,632 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$9,562 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a high temperature of 76-77°F (41.5% implied probability) in New York City on April 1, closely tracking the National Weather Service's latest forecast for a peak near 76°F at Central Park under partly sunny skies—a sharp anomaly above the 55-56°F climatological norm. This positioning stems from robust agreement in recent GFS and ECMWF model runs depicting a potent upper-level ridge over the Northeast, driving warm air advection from the south via southerly winds aloft. Over the past 48 hours, ensemble guidance has solidified on mid-70s peaks, rebounding from prior cooler outlooks amid high pressure dominance. Key uncertainties include afternoon boundary layer heating potentially edging toward 78-79°F (18%) or increased mixing capping at 74-75°F (28.5%); track hourly NWS updates and METARs for intraday shifts as resolution nears via official Central Park observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$91,821End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a high temperature of 76-77°F (41.5% implied probability) in New York City on April 1, closely tracking the National Weather Service's latest forecast for a peak near 76°F at Central Park under partly sunny skies—a sharp anomaly above the 55-56°F climatological norm. This positioning stems from robust agreement in recent GFS and ECMWF model runs depicting a potent upper-level ridge over the Northeast, driving warm air advection from the south via southerly winds aloft. Over the past 48 hours, ensemble guidance has solidified on mid-70s peaks, rebounding from prior cooler outlooks amid high pressure dominance. Key uncertainties include afternoon boundary layer heating potentially edging toward 78-79°F (18%) or increased mixing capping at 74-75°F (28.5%); track hourly NWS updates and METARs for intraday shifts as resolution nears via official Central Park observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$91,821End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a high temperature of 76-77°F (41.5% implied probability) in New York City on April 1, closely tracking the National Weather Service's latest forecast for a peak near 76°F at Central Park under partly sunny skies—a sharp anomaly above the 55-56°F climatological norm. This positioning stems from robust agreement in recent GFS and ECMWF model runs depicting a potent upper-level ridge over the Northeast, driving warm air advection from the south via southerly winds aloft. Over the past 48 hours, ensemble guidance has solidified on mid-70s peaks, rebounding from prior cooler outlooks amid high pressure dominance. Key uncertainties include afternoon boundary layer heating potentially edging toward 78-79°F (18%) or increased mixing capping at 74-75°F (28.5%); track hourly NWS updates and METARs for intraday shifts as resolution nears via official Central Park observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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